February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Front Ranger]

The ski area is closed because of lack of snow and it is 37 degrees and raining at the base.

 

http://skipark.com/the-mountain/conditions/

 

Raining now, but was snowing earlier as you can see from the fresh snow on the base cam. 

 

And that's the base, the majority of the mountain has been getting a lot of snow above 7,500'. That number was from the local NWS discussion.

 

Here's the forecast for the mountain itself. Like I said, plenty of accumulation at the higher elevations. An additional 3-4' is possible on Mount Shasta. Couldn't hurt with the drought situation.

 

• This AfternoonSnow. High near 22. Windy, with a southwest wind around 37 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
• TonightSnow. Temperature rising to around 25 by 5am. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a southwest wind 41 to 46 mph decreasing to 31 to 36 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
• SundaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a south wind 32 to 37 mph increasing to 45 to 50 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
• Sunday NightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Wind chill values as low as -8. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 55 mph, with gusts as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.
• MondaySnow. High near 26. Windy, with a west southwest wind 35 to 40 mph decreasing to 26 to 31 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

[Phil]

How?

Towards the bottom of the menu, below the big "or" message, see where it says "contour interval". You can change the both the interval itself and the range.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/

[Dan the Weatherman]

Hoping for some kind of general balancing out of course.

I am hoping for a period of wet weather from later this month into April. We are really due for a wet second half of the season, which is something that hasn't occurred in recent years at least in Socal.

[Front Ranger]

I am hoping for a period of wet weather from later this month into April. We are really due for a wet second half of the season, which is something that hasn't occurred in recent years at least in Socal.

 

I see north LA metro is getting some showers now, nice to finally get some rain down that way. Montecito has recorded .63" so far.

[HighlandExperience]

Time to start stocking up the bomb shelter!

 

Yeah, not gonna happen. The world is too economically interdependent at this point to allow for a world war at the scale we saw in the mid-20th century.

 

They thought the same thing prior to WW I. Granted the world was not as interconnected back then. But many people thought WW I would never happen because Europe was becoming more economically integrated. 

 

Ok back to our boring weather. 

[Jesse]

They thought the same thing prior to WW I. Granted the world was not as interconnected back then. But many people thought WW I would never happen because Europe was becoming more economically integrated. 

 

Ok back to our boring weather. 

 

Let's just hope no one assassinates any Austrian archdukes anytime soon!

[Jesse]

February is just a week in. 

 

These maps only go through Dec 2014, but I can compare the 7 month Jun-Dec 2014 period to other similar 7 month periods. Some of these torches continued well longer than 7 months.

 

 

This really doesn't prove a whole lot.

 

Still nothing disputing the fact that the warmth this July-January is without rival in the PNW.

[Jesse]

In Tigard today and there are a LOT of flowers either budding or blooming.

 

Thanks global warming!!

[Deweydog]

I see north LA metro is getting some showers now, nice to finally get some rain down that way. Montecito has recorded .63" so far.

Might have been a factor in Bruce Jenner's fatal car wreck?

[BLI snowman]

 

Raining now, but was snowing earlier as you can see from the fresh snow on the base cam. 

 

And that's the base, the majority of the mountain has been getting a lot of snow above 7,500'. That number was from the local NWS discussion.

 

Here's the forecast for the mountain itself. Like I said, plenty of accumulation at the higher elevations. An additional 3-4' is possible on Mount Shasta. Couldn't hurt with the drought situation.

 

• This AfternoonSnow. High near 22. Windy, with a southwest wind around 37 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
• TonightSnow. Temperature rising to around 25 by 5am. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a southwest wind 41 to 46 mph decreasing to 31 to 36 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
• SundaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a south wind 32 to 37 mph increasing to 45 to 50 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
• Sunday NightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Wind chill values as low as -8. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 55 mph, with gusts as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.
• MondaySnow. High near 26. Windy, with a west southwest wind 35 to 40 mph decreasing to 26 to 31 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

 

 

High of 40, low of 36 at the ski area today. No snow so far today.

 

Base depth is 5". That's historically awful.

 

The heavy, warm rain helps water levels in the short term, but it hinders what little snowpack is left. Bottom line is the CA snowpack is horrifically low and that's going to continue for the foreseeable future.

[Deweydog]

12 years ago right now the pattern was quite meridional and enjoyable.  

[Front Ranger]

This really doesn't prove a whole lot.

 

Still nothing disputing the fact that the warmth this July-January is without rival in the PNW.

 

 

It proves that there have been other 7+ month periods in PNW history that were just as warm or warmer. 

 

So saying it's been "unprecedented" is not accurate.

[Front Ranger]

High of 40, low of 36 at the ski area today. No snow so far today.

 

Base depth is 5". That's historically awful.

 

The heavy, warm rain helps water levels in the short term, but it hinders what little snowpack is left. Bottom line is the CA snowpack is horrifically low and that's going to continue for the foreseeable future.

 

Next week we can take a look at the drought monitor map and see what, if any improvement has occurred. 

 

The anticipation builds!

[BLI snowman]

Next week we can take a look at the drought monitor map and see what, if any improvement has occurred. 

 

The anticipation builds!

 

Not about next week so much as next season. If the rest of the winter sucks for the mountains, spring and summer are inevitably going to be nasty. One warm rain event certainly isn't changing that outlook.

[Front Ranger]

Not about next week so much as next season. If the rest of the winter sucks for the mountains, spring and summer are inevitably going to be nasty. One warm rain event certainly isn't changing that outlook.

 

I'm sure the U.S. drought monitor takes all of that into account.

[richard mann]

I am hoping for a period of wet weather from later this month into April. We are really due for a wet second half of the season, which is something that hasn't occurred in recent years at least in Socal.

Certainly edgy, but I still give things a 50/50 chance where looking at a more positive potential and result where considering the general timeframe from here into mid-Spring, some kind of precip. wise.

 

"Boarder" timeframe, I figure things have got to be moving toward more normal. The recent shift toward wetter—at least—weather from more extreme northern CA, south to Modesto (75 miles south of Sacramento.), perhaps even further south with this next shot of rain setting up out over the Pacific, hopefully working as an harbinger for better conditions ahead generally for the greater Far West.

 

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-2100B.jpg

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm

[Snowman5678]

Drove over Snoqualmie today...disqusting, gusty winds and heavy rain and no snow on the ground till right at the pass at 3,000ft. Thes lopes were so dirty and barely had any snow...dismal there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw a picture a friend took at 5200' outside of Sisters, Oregon. Bare ground and rain falling. 

[DareDuck]

Saw a picture a friend took at 5200' outside of Sisters, Oregon. Bare ground and rain falling.

Just drove through there recently and over Santiam. Only tiny patches of snow in the shade. At least Bachelor picked up 10-15"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just drove through there recently and over Santiam. Only tiny patches of snow in the shade. At least Bachelor picked up 10-15"

 

I remember late July 1999 when there was fairly solid snow cover still at Santiam Pass....

[HighlandExperience]

I remember late July 1999 when there was fairly solid snow cover still at Santiam Pass....

 

Yes I remember 1999 as well. There was still sold snow cover at Snoqualmie in July. This from Cliff Mass today:

 

But let me be clear, I am not optimistic for the remainder of this year and virtually every tool at my disposal suggests that the preternatural warmth will continue. 

[Deweydog]

I remember late July 1999 when there was fairly solid snow cover still at Santiam Pass....

My wife headed over Hwy 26 yesterday to Bend for some women's weekend disaster. Talked to her this morning and she said there wasn't a lick of snow anywhere along the trip. She said she thought that seemed unusual and I told her she was stupid.

[HighlandExperience]

Our best chance of snow is in 2016.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

[TT-SEA]

Glad to see more juicy radar echoes moving in... we really need more warm rain.    

[GHweatherChris]

Glad to see more juicy radar echoes moving in... we really need more warm rain.    

I am even getting a bit tired of these warm fronts this year.  It is starting to get out of hand, one of the worst years here for rain. 

 

And I know others could point out wetter years and such to me, but this is the first time in my life I am honestly frustrated here.

[Jesse]

Sad state of affairs out there.

[Jesse]

I am even getting a bit tired of these warm fronts this year.  It is starting to get out of hand, one of the worst years here for rain. 

 

And I know others could point out wetter years and such to me, but this is the first time in my life I am honestly frustrated here.

 

That's because warm fronts are some of the most miserable weather in the PNW, and we've basically only seen warm fronts this "cold season".

 

During the dreaded cooler years we actually get nicer weather with sharper fronts overall, IMO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well at least its not dry with no mountain snow pack! 

[HighlandExperience]

Well at least its not dry with no mountain snow pack! 

 

I suppose it could be worse right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I suppose it could be worse right?

 

Exactly! At least the ground aquifers in the lowlands are not being sapped.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Something has to give sooner than later. I doubt we see similar conditions throughout spring, summer, or even during the next winter. I would hope that I am not alone in believing that extremes begit extremes and we will see something nice and cold in the next year or two.

 

It was rainy and windy Bothell, a great day to spend hunched over a keyboard.

 

Yeah it was a pretty awful day. Intermittent downpours, but I didn't really care given I've been sick for about a week now. 

[GHweatherChris]

Something has to give sooner than later. I doubt we see similar conditions throughout spring, summer, or even during the next winter. I would hope that I am not alone in believing that extremes begit extremes and we will see something nice and cold in the next year or two.

 

It was rainy and windy Bothell, a great day to spend hunched over a keyboard.

Something has to give!!

[Dan the Weatherman]

I am even getting a bit tired of these warm fronts this year.  It is starting to get out of hand, one of the worst years here for rain. 

 

And I know others could point out wetter years and such to me, but this is the first time in my life I am honestly frustrated here.

The pattern seems to have changed quite drastically up and down the West Coast the last couple of years that has led to this very unusual pattern of warmth. Gulf of Alaska storms with colder air that bring lower snow levels have been blocked more or less as of late, so the storms have primarily been of the warm variety.

[jcmcgaffey]

It sucks we missed out on much snow this winter. But I have actually enjoyed this winter more than most winters. There have been a lot fewer rainy days and the days it rained it really has rained. I haven't had to put all the layers of clothes on the kids either because it's been so mild.

[richard mann]

This from Cliff Mass today:

 

But let me be clear, I am not optimistic for the remainder of this year and virtually every tool at my disposal suggests that the preternatural warmth will continue.

Also from Prof. Mass's most recent Blog entry, posted earlier today:

 

Of relative note here, perhaps of some consequence if more slight, a slight oversight on the professor's part apparently. The forecast time had actually been for 09z, and so more like 1 am Wed. earlier morning. 

 

.. We are now close enough to that period to know that it is unlikely that we will get a major event before the typical transition to spring. The persistent ridging that has been the hallmark of this winter is not going anywhere. To illustrate, here is the forecast[ed] upper level (500 hPa) weather chart for next Tuesday at 4 PM.  Big ridge [a]gain.

 

http://www.proxigee.com/av-500mb_v_150211_09z-t.jpg

 

 

If fairly obvious here, worth noting perhaps I feel, .. With this depiction of the circumstance and set up projected being for only a more singular point in time where looking ahead, i.e. with no others similar preceding or following it in time, its certainly a bit difficult to gage just how good or bad what's depicted here, whether is or might be where set with and considering the "continued warmth" projection / scenario that the professor has suggested.

 

— I'm mentioning this idea, with idea more specific of mine in mind, that with checking the projection here above and noting what I have projected main (and broader. ?) colder air mass movement focused at the time, in fact I'm seeing some at least, more positive elements to what's shown within this graphic.

 

.. Those being mainly, that with and although the colder air mass flanking the main ridging shown within this image appears fairly clearly, to being working to "shear up" that ridging (Of important note here: ... certainly in line with what it might logically be expected to do, per my projection of what it might be caused to where looking at its both more latitudinal together with more longitudinal movement at the time.), ... where looking at what I've projected as being likely not long after the point in time pointed to here—(if not more right at it)—cold (that shown depicted here perhaps.) should be set to begin moving more assertively east. Even more steadfastly. (One factor less then more strongly.)

 

("Judges".)

[BLI snowman]

Something has to give sooner than later. I doubt we see similar conditions throughout spring, summer, or even during the next winter. I would hope that I am not alone in believing that extremes begit extremes and we will see something nice and cold in the next year or two.

 

It was rainy and windy Bothell, a great day to spend hunched over a keyboard.

 

I think it's a given we'll see something at some point in the next two years, even barring a full blown El Nino next year.

 

Given a Nina or neutral winter, I would wager healthy money on a lowland snowstorm or two or three next winter.

[GHweatherChris]

The pattern seems to have changed quite drastically up and down the West Coast the last couple of years that has led to this very unusual pattern of warmth. Gulf of Alaska storms with colder air that bring lower snow levels have been blocked more or less as of late, so the storms have primarily been of the warm variety.

Nothing has been blocked IMO.  Just a strong persistent pattern.

[Jesse]

Nothing has been blocked IMO. Just a strong persistent pattern.

Strong, persistent patterns block certain airmasses from making it in. There was nothing inaccurate in what he said.

[Phil]

I think it's a given we'll see something at some point in the next two years, even barring a full blown El Nino next year.

 

Given a Nina or neutral winter, I would wager healthy money on a lowland snowstorm or two or three next winter.

Agree with that. There will be more support for strong Aleutian ridging next winter, unless we enter a stronger +ENSO regime.

[GHweatherChris]

Strong, persistent patterns block certain airmasses from making it in. There was nothing inaccurate in what he said.

So, when we are cold and snowy then you would agree that it is blocking what we are seeing now??

 

Weather evolution in play, one extreme begets another.