February 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

That was nothing more than information with the NAM MOS.      I hate having to filter model data on here to protect sensitive people.    Just report what it shows.    It is what it is.

 

You will seriously never learn.

[GobBluth]

Shouldn't we be able to track the low in real time at this point?

[Jesse]

This thing is getting pretty close. Not like we're tracking a potential snowstorm 3-4 days out. If the 00Z GFS is correct it will be snowing here by noon-ish tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

You will seriously never learn.

 

 

Nope.   You are a model citizen and I should learn more from you.   

 

POT CALLING THE KETTLE BLACK.    Times a million.

[Parksvillewx]

Maybe we'll all get a nice surprise since NONE of the models agree with each other?

[BLI snowman]

Despite the northward trend... the Seattle area still ends up with absolutely nothing.   

Seattle will get theirs on Saturday night. Bank on it.

[epiceast]

Well the last update... PDX scores bigtime in round 2 as well.

[Jesse]

East wind is raging out here, strongest of the day. Must be in response to the incoming low. Temperature is down to 17

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy hell, EUG to PDX snow Apocalypse.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

That was nothing more than information with the NAM MOS.      I hate having to filter model data on here to protect sensitive people.    Just report what it shows.    It is what it is.

 

I know what you're saying.  But to give you some perspective on the matter:  The other day I had a conversation about a personal matter that should have happened more than 3 years ago.  During the conversation, I noted it was more than 3 years ago--later, I said it was nearly 1/3 of a decade.

 

Same information, same meaning, different impact. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It will be flurrying here by the time I leave for work if the 00z verifies.

[TT-SEA]

Holy hell, EUG to PDX snow Apocalypse.

 

You beat me to it!

 

I was just going to say that Eugene and Salem might have 2 feet of snow while Seattle is dry.    

 

What a year down there.   

[brody]

Maybe we'll all get a nice surprise since NONE of the models agree with each other?

Its pretty much a given you Molson drinkers arent gonna see

[HighlandExperience]

00z GFS shows the low take pretty much the ideal track for PDX. Looks like might be accumulating snow up to Olympia, unless the low comes in even further north.

It will keep trending north.

[TT-SEA]

I know what you're saying.  But to give you some perspective on the matter:  The other day I had a conversation about a personal matter that should have happened more than 3 years ago.  During the conversation, I noted it was more than 3 years ago--later, I said it was nearly 1/3 of a decade.

 

Same information, same meaning, different impact. 

 

 

So I need to be fake and say 'oh no... the NAM MOS is actually showing a moderation in temperatures and this is terrible'??    Then everyone will be able to handle the information better?       

[epiceast]

Its pretty much a given you Molson drinkers arent gonna see s**t

Didn't know PBR & Coors was brewed by the same company. That would explain things.

[epiceast]

It will keep trending north.

It sometimes does and sometimes doesn't. 

[Jesse]

It will keep trending north.

 

Not likely. We are talking less than 24 hours out now.

[Weather101]

Its pretty much a given you Molson drinkers arent gonna see s**t

?

[TT-SEA]

Saturday's event has trended south from the 12Z GFS to the 00Z GFS.

 

12Z

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_078_precip_p03.gif

 

 

00Z

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_066_precip_p03.gif

[Perturbed Member]

Let's not push it.

Agreed. Lets stick with this track, any further north and we'd be playing a dangerous game.  

[Weather101]

Agreed. Lets stick with this track, any further north and we'd be playing a dangerous game.

More north please

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not likely. We are talking less than 24 hours out now.

 

Yeah it shows snow beginning here in about 10 hours.

[TT-SEA]

Holy crap... total precip from tomorrow afternoon through late Saturday night.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_081_precip_p60.gif

 

 

Amazing gradient.   Is that like 25 inches of snow in Salem and Eugene? 

[chinook]

Not likely. We are talking less than 24 hours out now.

i don't think he was serious. jealous, perhaps...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saturday's event has trended south from the 12Z GFS to the 00Z GFS.

 

12Z

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_078_precip_p03.gif

 

 

00Z

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_066_precip_p03.gif

 

Looks like Saturday's event is aimed directly at my house...

[Perturbed Member]

My feeling is that the Saturday system will trend a bit north too, just a gut feeling though.

[FroYoBro]

If it goes down like the GFS, Portland will be shutdown this weekend. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

So I need to be fake and say 'oh no... the NAM MOS is actually showing a moderation in temperatures and this is terrible'??    Then everyone will be able to handle the information better?       

 

Nah.   I made my point.  Nothing to talk about at this point.

[Deweydog]

Looks like Saturday's event is aimed directly at my house...

 

I'm sure it reads this forum. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy crap... total precip from tomorrow afternoon through late Saturday night.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_081_precip_p60.gif

 

 

Amazing gradient.   Is that like 25 inches of snow in Salem? 

 

If you don't hear from me after tomorrow, my power is out. If you don't hear from me by Monday, send help.

[brody]

?

Realx Pal, just poking some fun

 

Wanna see my slap shot?

[GHweatherChris]

Holy crap... total precip from tomorrow afternoon through late Saturday night.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_081_precip_p60.gif

 

 

Amazing gradient.   Is that like 25 inches of snow in Salem and Eugene? 

Ugly.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Along Lake Washington Blvd as well... and in downtown Bellevue.

They absolutely ruin the landscape around here imo. They dont belong here.

[Snow]

PDX GETS OBLITERATED! The public doesn't know what's about to hit them!

[Jesse]

Agreed. Lets stick with this track, any further north and we'd be playing a dangerous game.

 

Yeah. In all honestly I don't think the extreme nature of the arctic air over Northern Oregon and Washington would physically allow the low itself to track in any farther north than Eugene.

 

Like Dewey and bb-kid were saying earlier today, this thing busting warm and wet for anyone north of Roseburg is off the table at this point. The only bust would be dry and cold.

[brody]

Holy crap... total precip from tomorrow afternoon through late Saturday night.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_081_precip_p60.gif

 

 

Amazing gradient.   Is that like 25 inches of snow in Salem and Eugene? 

**** this

 

Im outta here 

[Weather101]

My feeling is that the Saturday system will trend a bit north too, just a gut feeling though.

Same! Then we all get hit

[TT-SEA]

If it goes down like the GFS, Portland will be shutdown this weekend. 

 

 

Big time.

 

They won't even be able to get in and out of Salem or Eugene.   Literally.

 

Are there any historical examples of this type of extreme gradient from our weather history experts?

[FroYoBro]

The WRF shows the snow band making it a couple of miles from Portland. A huge improvement from the 12z though.