Jump to content
The Weather Forums

July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think I mentioned 850s. That’s you.

But yes, I suspect the third week of July will average below normal. 4th week is debatable with a CCKW passage, which could lead to a few warm days and turn the average positive, but that would be very transient.

I don’t see sustained warmth out there until the middle of August, at earliest.

Got it.

So next week will be regionally colder than normal according to you.   Duly noted.   

We will score this on 7/25 for the 7/18-24 period which is the 3rd week of July.  

 

  • Popcorn 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Now you're randomly bringing in places like Pendleton and Spokane? You realize it's a whole other climate over there, right?

That's never been part of the discussion I've been involved in. Westside, the lowlands...where OLM also resides. Along with the vast majority of the people on here.

 

Like I said, narrowing your view. The fact that you don't believe that the region stretches more than 50 miles from OLM in any direction is your issue, not mine.

  • Like 2
  • lol 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The 0z ensemble continues its slow cooling trend.  Now it drops below normal on the 15th and remains at least slightly below normal the entire remainder of the run.

The 12Z GEFS shows 850mb temps a little warmer than normal all of next week.    The colder than normal temps are focused on 2-3 days later this week.  

In addition... the 500mb pattern being shown for next is not favorable for marine layer clouds or inversions.   So even normal 850mb temps are likely to result in warmer than normal surface temps in a sunny pattern.  

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-7084800.png

  • Sun 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s really no other place to discuss in detail the PNW climate is the main reason I’ve stayed. Im a weather nerd when it comes to the PNW and I need other people just as interested as I am to understand and discuss stuff with and there’s nowhere else online. I do like pretty much everyone on here even if I disagree with some of what’s said. 

I'm glad we have you and everyone else we have here. Nerds of all shapes, sizes, skin depth, and weather preferences.

Your last sentence is a fine approach...although to truly be happy here, some members would recommend a healthy dose of making things personal, along with a side of down-voting-the-hell-out-of-the-forum as a way of expressing your happiness.

  • Like 2
  • Downvote 2

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How does the last significant -PDO period, which did in fact feature a lot more Arctic intrusions into the PNW, relate to this July?

Great example of playing up and downplaying as a fine art.

You spent many hours trying to paint that period in the most favorable light possible, shifting time frames and coming up with hypotheticals about how one event or another could have more impressive if only this variable had changed.  It just paints a very clear picture. 

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Great example of playing up and downplaying as a fine art.

You spent many hours trying to paint that period in the most favorable light possible, shifting time frames and coming up with hypotheticals about how one event or another could have more impressive if only this variable had changed.  It just paints a very clear picture. 

Stop making things accurate/personal!!!! 😭😭😭😭

  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There have been a few others (TacomaWx, etc) and I really can’t blame them.

Some members may recommend you grow a pair.

  • Excited 1
  • lol 1
  • scream 1
  • Troll 2
  • Weenie 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Great example of playing up and downplaying as a fine art.

You spent many hours trying to paint that period in the most favorable light possible, shifting time frames and coming up with hypotheticals about how one event or another could have more impressive if only this variable had changed.  It just paints a very clear picture. 

Those are some pretty vague statements. I think history has shown that period does standout for the 21st century so far. The -PDO aspect probably wasn't coincidence.

Other than that, I'm not sure what you're getting at...like any other period the past 20+ years, if we had got some of those patterns to happen in January rather than early or late in the season (Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Dec 2013, etc), the results likely would have been more impressive from an absolute temps point of view.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Like I said, narrowing your view. The fact that you don't believe that the region stretches more than 50 miles from OLM in any direction is your issue, not mine.

This idea that July hasn't torched so far is laughable. 

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Some members may recommend you grow a pair.

I’m still here ain’t I?

I don’t think I’ve ever whined about being downvoted, and I’ve gotten plenty, many deserved.

  • Excited 1
  • Sun 1
  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Grandview Fire in Central Oregon has now grown to 4,000 acres. No word on containment, but I know they are throwing a lot of resources at it. 

Good news the fire down by LaPine was contained at 54 acres. 

Jack Fire's growth has slowed considerably over the past few days, it is 10% contained and just under 11,000 acres. It has mostly moved into the rugged terrain outside the North Umpqua canyon. 

Bootleg Fire checks in at 153,535 acres. 

  • Sad 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Those are some pretty vague statements. I think history has shown that period does standout for the 21st century so far. The -PDO aspect probably wasn't coincidence.

Other than that, I'm not sure what you're getting at...like any other period the past 20+ years, if we had got some of those patterns to happen in January rather than early or late in the season (Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Dec 2013, etc), the results likely would have been more impressive from an absolute temps point of view.

If late June 2021 had happened a month later, Salem undoubtedly hits 122.

  • Sun 1
  • Weenie 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This idea that July hasn't torched so far is laughable. 

I think it really depends on where you are. While it has been pretty consistently warmer than normal, it has yet to break the 80°F mark here this month. I would call July warm but not torchy. But those in Salem or Eugene would disagree (and they would have good reason to).

  • scream 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think it really depends on where you are. While it has been pretty consistently warmer than normal, it has yet to break the 80°F mark here this month. I would call July warm but not torchy. But those in Salem or Eugene would disagree (and they would have good reason to).

And everyone east of the Cascades. Not sure why those regions don't count. 

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Marine layer clouds are going to be pretty persistent in the central Sound on Thursday... the ECMWF has been showing this consistently on every run.

I am sure this will lead to excitement from someone in King County that the models have no clue what is happening and the inversion is back to stay.  ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z is not as deep with the trough on Friday compared to its 00Z run... but still manages to bring some rain.    

Unfortunately does not look like much for the I-5 corridor or for my area.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-6480000.png

  • Sad 1
  • Rain 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Marine layer clouds are going to be pretty persistent in the central Sound on Thursday... the ECMWF has been showing this consistently on every run.

I am sure this will lead to excitement from someone in King County that the models have no clue what is happening and the inversion is back to stay.  ;)

I am certain that the same source will soon be posting signs of how we’re on tap for another 1950-style winter.

  • Like 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And everyone east of the Cascades. Not sure why those regions don't count. 

It's not that they don't count, but let's be real. The vast majority of the discussion on here has always been about the westside, because that's where most weenies are.

  • Downvote 2

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Thank GOD. The trough is weakening on the Euro. I was pissing my pants every hour on the hour for a minute there worrying it might actually rain.

Tim isn't focusing on this, of course, but it's notably deeper than the GFS at day 5.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.thumb.png.90e9fa868330b2db8e8dadf17abbc3cb.png

gfs_z500a_namer_21.thumb.png.79e70f65ffc6ed71e72dd3f9759ab458.png

  • Snow 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Tim isn't focusing on this, of course, but it's notably deeper than the GFS at day 5.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.thumb.png.90e9fa868330b2db8e8dadf17abbc3cb.png

gfs_z500a_namer_21.thumb.png.79e70f65ffc6ed71e72dd3f9759ab458.png

The 12Z ECMWF is weaker than its 00Z run.    Trend is not favorable.    The 12Z GFS was also weaker than its 00Z run.

Thursday and Friday are fairly cool with maybe a little rain on Friday... then its sunny again by Saturday.     And it shows full sunshine and temps around 80 even in Seattle by Sunday.

It is what it is.

  • Popcorn 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Side note... I am also focused on the chance for rain on Friday and posted maps from both the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF runs.    Don't like what I see on the 12Z runs... some meaningful rain would be so nice right now.  

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Tim isn't focusing on this, of course, but it's notably deeper than the GFS at day 5.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.thumb.png.90e9fa868330b2db8e8dadf17abbc3cb.png

gfs_z500a_namer_21.thumb.png.79e70f65ffc6ed71e72dd3f9759ab458.png

Despite all this hype about a significant pattern change to colder weather... it looks like we will probably end up out on Lake Sammamish on the boat on Sunday in 80-degree sunshine.    Brrrrr.   When will summer ever start this year?    🤨

  • Excited 1
  • Troll 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PNW troughing force field in full effect on the 12z Euro through day 10.

Wont be too long before we’ve burned through all of our averagish weather points and are due for another regional heat event.

  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cold next week on the 12Z ECMWF... sunny and around 80 in Seattle from Sunday onward.    Eventually we will get some actual summer weather around here.  

  • Sun 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My phone says summer is ending soon here... look at Friday!  

Screenshot_20210712-121103_Google.jpg

Pretty rough looking forecast, buddy. I hope you manage to survive that epic trough. I imagine warnings will be posted shortly.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Wont be too long before we’ve burned through all of our averagish weather points and are due for another regional heat event.

Per Andrew, the heat has continued unabated this month. 

Reports that are not in full agreement.

  • Windy 1
  • Downvote 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Up to 70…one degree ahead of yesterday at this time. 

SEA is running 4 degrees ahead of yesterday.     High ended up being 81 yesterday. 

  • Sun 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Per Andrew, the heat has continued unabated this month. 

Reports that are not in full agreement.

It has. He is assuming we see some average weather later next week which we may. As I mentioned earlier, July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. Something we have not seen yet this month. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is running 4 degrees ahead of yesterday.     High ended up being 81 yesterday. 

80 seems like a good bet here today…79 for the max here the last 3 days in a row. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are absolutely blowing away July 2009 month to date. 

SLE running exactly even with yesterday, a day they ended up hitting 91. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guess I better get to the lake house before Friday’s massive rain event and get the boat covered…And possibly winterized due to the massive negative temp anomalies that are about to descend on us! 

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It has. He is assuming we see some average weather later next week which we may. As I mentioned earlier, July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. Something we have not seen yet this month. 

Yes.

  • Popcorn 1
  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It has. He is assuming we see some average weather later next week which we may. As I mentioned earlier, July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. Something we have not seen yet this month. 

Yeah... some people are acting like any troughing at all negates the warm summer narrative.  Apparently troughing is never possible in a warm summer. 

This upcoming troughing event looks pretty pathetic right now.   It literally gets stopped and pushed back as it tries to enter the PNW in true 4CH fashion.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yes.

Same story here. Major cool period in the second week at my place. There hasn't been a normal high in like a year.

lol

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • iFred unpinned and pinned this topic
  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...