TacomaWaWx Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: OUCH Will be interesting if tims right about the euro wet bias or not. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 Sunbreaks and fall color... currently 60 degrees. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: End of the 12z EPS is showing the signs of a pattern change for the start of November with a ridge building over the W Coast. Hopefully accompanied by some fake cold. I love dark, gloomy inversions with temps stuck in the 40s in the valley. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: End of the 12z EPS is showing the signs of a pattern change for the start of November with a ridge building over the W Coast. Let’s torch baby 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 Some nice colors showing up around my place. Some is passing its peak though like this burning bush 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 VERY impressive baroclinic band on the ECMWF late in the run complete with a crazy N to S temperature gradient. Could be a massive snow dump for the mountains on the cold side of the line. It even shows the temps in Seattle being pretty chilly for much of the event. Very intriguing to see something like that so early if it happens. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Tyler Mode Posted October 20, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 Perhaps I should have checked the radar...I went out to take pictures at the Grist Mill before the fall colors faded and got absolutely nailed by a storm complete with pouring rain, lightning and a falling (mainly rotted) tree. 12 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: Some nice colors showing up around my place. Some is passing its peak though like this burning bush Some of the maples here are about the brightest yellow they can get. On the way home from work there is one spot that has a lot of those maples, some non native trees that are absolutely on fire (reds and oranges), and a view of Mount Rainier all at the same. I should have gotten a pic. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: Perhaps I should have checked the radar...I went out to take pictures at the Grist Mill before the fall colors faded and got absolutely nailed by a storm complete with pouring rain, lightning and a falling (mainly rotted) tree. That first one is worthy of an award. Great pic! 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Cloud said: Daily precip record at SEA today is 5.02” from 2003. Yeah, ain’t touching that but holy shiet it was a wet day. And we had a crazy freeze about two weeks after that. Very dynamic autumn / early winter that year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 Anybody have an opinion on this: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, crf450ish said: Anybody have an opinion on this: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1 It's a massive bomb cyclone, but thankfully we will not get the full effects from it. Just some heavy rain and breezy conditions at times, #normalfallweather!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 18z is a lot wetter than the 12z. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 18z is a lot wetter than the 12z. He found a few more Corona Extras. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 Great pics as always Tyler. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 I absolutely adore the 18z GFS. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I absolutely adore the 18z GFS. 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 It just got nasty in a matter of minutes here. I thought for sure there would be thunder the way the sky looked, but none so far. Heavy rain and gusty winds. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 I am now officially ranked as a collaborator on this forum. Lets collaborate up in this *****! 1 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I absolutely adore the 18z GFS. Just one trough after another and then a nice chilly shot at the end. Looks like a significant hurricane for the Atlantic also. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Those racoons are pretty amazing. Very cute! 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted October 20, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 My pics suck compared to Tyler’s but here are a few from my travels today. The Snow Geese were busy today! 10 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, crf450ish said: Anybody have an opinion on this: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1 Mostly agree with the assessment... seems like this thing is going to remain mostly offshore similar to Songda and then swipe Vancouver Island. Back then, Songda was considered a "bust" because it took a different turn and social media was lighting it up days before the storm's arrival. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 The GFS shows a nippy Nov 4 and 5. With widespread lows upper 20s and low 30s in there. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Mostly agree with the assessment... seems like this thing is going to remain mostly offshore similar to Songda and then swipe Vancouver Island. Back then, Songda was considered a "bust" because it took a different turn and social media was lighting it up days before the storm's arrival. Yeah...lows that strong have a very difficult time getting really close to the WA Coast. Normally we get nailed by a low pinwheeling around a parent low out there, and not the parent itself. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 That shower dropped the temp to 54 after a high of 60. Nice plunge. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah...lows that strong have a very difficult time getting really close to the WA Coast. Normally we get nailed by a low pinwheeling around a parent low out there, and not the parent itself. Yeah, this one seems to be way offshore, probably just gonna be a good breeze around here. Stronger at the coast. The Sunday storm however is a different beast, that seems to be a lot closer and stronger but still remains well offshore (for now). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cloud said: Yeah, this one seems to be way offshore, probably just gonna be a good breeze around here. Stronger at the coast. The Sunday storm however is a different beast, that seems to be a lot closer and stronger but still remains well offshore (for now). Models also seem to be very different as to how they resolve that low-- with such a strong jet seems like there's lots of potential. A fair amount of GFS members put it close enough that it can pose some issues. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 Nice to see the GFS and ECMWF have both gone colder again vs last night's 0z. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Yeah my temp graph is a straight cliff as the shower rolled through. Dropped from 58 to 51 in about 10 minutes. It's still slowly dropping here even after the shower has ended. Can't wait to get into the real below normal temps again next week. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's still slowly dropping here even after the shower has ended. Can't wait to get into the real below normal temps again next week. Might be a long wait for chilly nights... rain will have to stop and that is not very likely for the next 2 weeks. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 12Z EPS did not show much in the way of cold 850mb temps over the next 2 weeks... and was very wet. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Might be a long wait for chilly nights... rain will have to stop and that is not very likely for the next 2 weeks. Always nice to see this time of year IMO. A washout +EPO fall here seems to beget a significantly cold and amplified midwinter period far more often than if it was the other way around. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: Always nice to see this time of year IMO. A washout +EPO fall here seems to beget a significantly cold and amplified midwinter period far more often than if it was the other way around. Yeah... its better now than later for sure. I just don't get the talk of a cold pattern coming soon. Going to have to wait. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 21, 2021 Report Share Posted October 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... its better now than later for sure. I just don't get the talk of a cold pattern coming soon. Going to have to wait. Certainly doesn't look likely. The averages are dropping quickly so we're already approaching the point where wet onshore flow just won't yield much in the way of cold departures. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 21, 2021 Report Share Posted October 21, 2021 Since I like anomalies maps. Still cooling and 7-day change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 21, 2021 Report Share Posted October 21, 2021 60/50 today. Haven’t had any rain since this morning. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2021 Report Share Posted October 21, 2021 The ECMWF sneaks in a fairly chilly day on Saturday now with a 53/42 for McChord with an evening low. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2021 Report Share Posted October 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, Cloud said: Since I like anomalies maps. Still cooling and 7-day change. You can sure see the classic horseshoe signature of the -PDO too. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 21, 2021 Report Share Posted October 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: 60/50 today. Haven’t had any rain since this morning. We had a decent shower earlier that dumped the temperature to 51. 60/49 for the day so far. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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