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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Went over the Bighorn mtns in the snow today. 

BFB5AD4E-E286-4A6C-942E-021CE166DA6D.jpeg

Fun! Where you headed to today?

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Trust me, he's not pushing an "agenda". You'll see social media in a few days be riddled with comments like "why did we name a storm after that arsehole" or something along those lines. People hate Columbus and it has little to do with politics. So we make jokes about what we could rename it. Some very long name that sounds funny when you say it.

This shit becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If you keep telling everyone that "those crazy pink haired men hating communist liberals are trying to change Saturday into Womxnday" then all you're doing is signal boosting the three idiots who think "yeah, thats is a great idea".


No one that I would think as being serious is actually calling for this, not even mets that think a violent communist revolution is the only way we can save the planet are calling for this. So stirring up shit on the board because you think Senpai Rantz is reading doesn't have a place here.

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11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Fun! Where you headed to today?

Teton area I think.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

Quite a bit further from record lows now than just yesterday! Now the records are mid teens and not mid 20's.

Was 16 in 1985, 23 this morning. 

Brrrr.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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23 minutes ago, iFred said:

This becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If you keep telling everyone that "those crazy pink haired men hating communist liberals are trying to change Saturday into Womxnday" then all you're doing is signal boosting the three idiots who think "yeah, thats is a great idea".


No one that I would think as being serious is actually calling for this, not even mets that think a violent communist revolution is the only way we can save the planet are calling for this. So stirring up on the board because you think Senpai Rantz is reading doesn't have a place here.

I certainly don't believe it would have ever happened anyway. Again it all came down to sense of humor, it wasn't my intention to stir anything up. :)

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The ECMWF is about a degree colder for the Seattle area on Tuesday morning.  Going to be widespread records.

The ECMWF suite of models is showing a VERY deep trough just off the coast as we get toward day 10.  Possible winter storm for the mountains with that.  I'll be happy to see a good wet period (assuming it happens).  Past history shows cold / wet is even better than just cold for October in setting up for the winter.

One reason I'm so pumped about the persistence of this cold pattern is it shows patterns may have a tendency to lock in this winter.  I'm of the opinion the only thing that could spoil this winter is too much zonal flow.  Given the blocky nature of things in recent years that isn't the most likely outcome IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Teton area I think.

Cool! Still planning on camping?? Southern Montana into Wyoming looks to be ground zero for Monday/Tuesday. Expecting 8-12” of snowfall here.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I'll be interested to see how that trough digs in the 8 to 10 day period.  The amount of phasing with that southern stream system is going to be key.  More phasing will result in a trough further west and wetter / a bit milder.  Less phasing another shot of cold air with relatively light precip.  If we get the latter outcome this will be almost a lock for a top 10% cold October.  I think the first half is a lock for top 5%.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Cool! Still planning on camping?? Southern Montana into Wyoming looks to be ground zero for Monday/Tuesday. Expecting 8-12” of snowfall here.

If this pattern can lock in during the winter... Well you know....

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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West based -NAO showing up on the ensemble means for week two.  Good feature for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If this pattern can lock in during the winter... Well you know....

Would love to see this pattern lock in for the winter…I just don’t see that happening though. Fall wavelengths look a whole lot different during the winter.
 

I think at the very least we’ll see a ridgy period for the last third of this month through mid November but still believe a December to remember is coming.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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51 minutes ago, iFred said:

This becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If you keep telling everyone that "those crazy pink haired men hating communist liberals are trying to change Saturday into Womxnday" then all you're doing is signal boosting the three idiots who think "yeah, thats is a great idea".


No one that I would think as being serious is actually calling for this, not even mets that think a violent communist revolution is the only way we can save the planet are calling for this. So stirring up on the board because you think Senpai Rantz is reading doesn't have a place here.

I’m probably one of the lefty-iest people here, I think Columbus isn’t worth a holiday*… and I really don’t have much of a bone to pick with the name “Columbus Day Storm,” because at the time the storm was named, Columbus Day was still a pretty big thing (thus a logical choice to base the name of the storm on). It’s gotten less and less a thing, particularly in the western states, as the decades have passed. None of my employers (back to the mid/late 80’s, so this is not a recent thing) have ever given it as a standard paid holiday.

* Not only is there his treatment of the indigenous people, he really didn’t discover the New World. Asian tribes crossing the Bering land bridge were by far the first to discover the Americas. Columbus wasn’t even the first European; the Vikings beat him by nearly five hundred years.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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57 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Would love to see this pattern lock in for the winter…I just don’t see that happening though. Fall wavelengths look a whole lot different during the winter.
 

I think at the very least we’ll see a ridgy period for the last third of this month through mid November but still believe a December to remember is coming.

I totally agree that November could do a 180.  It's pretty common after a cold October in a Nina season.  Some examples would be 1949, 1971, and 2008.  All winners.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

If this pattern can lock in during the winter... Well you know....

Not really an arctic outbreak type pattern though. Pretty progressive with a flattish, at times, Aleutian Ridge and little to no ridging into Alaska.  

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44 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m probably one of the lefty-iest people here, I think Columbus isn’t worth a holiday*… and I really don’t have much of a bone to pick with the name “Columbus Day Storm,” because at the time the storm was named, Columbus Day was still a pretty big thing (thus a logical choice to base the name of the storm on). It’s gotten less and less a thing, particularly in the western states, as the decades have passed. None of my employers (back to the mid/late 80’s, so this is not a recent thing) have ever given it as a standard paid holiday.

* Not only is there his treatment of the indigenous people, he really didn’t discover the New World. Asian tribes crossing the Bering land bridge were by far the first to discover the Americas. Columbus wasn’t even the first European; the Vikings beat him by nearly five hundred years.

I have done some thinking why Columbus Day is such a big deal.  I think you have to look at the context.  When he discovered America the people in Europe had no idea that North America even existed.  He opened up a whole new world to them so it's understandable that people made a big deal out of it.  Eventually that fame they bestowed upon him was transferred to the United States with the Pilgrims and early settlers.  It's only recently it kind of dawned on us that he was actually late to the party so to speak.

That having been said I think the revulsion people feel for him is kind of overblown.  We don't even know for sure what actually happened in any kind of detail.  Things get distorted over time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not really an arctic outbreak type pattern though. Pretty progressive with a flattish, at times, Aleutian Ridge and little to no ridging into Alaska.  

I think you are kind of selling it short.  It would certainly be cold enough in the winter for snow given the temps we've been seeing recently.  Keep in mind this is going to be a top 5% cold first half of October.  Furthermore this is the first legit cold October during a Nina since 1984.  That was a famously blocky winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think you are kind of selling it short.  It would certainly be cold enough in the winter for snow given the temps we've been seeing recently.  Keep in mind this going to a top 5% cold first of October.  Furthermore this is the first legit cold October during a Nina since 1984.  That was a famously blocky winter.

And yet this winter could easily end up like nothing you are expecting in early October.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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To further expound on the question of amplification.  In January 2008 the mean positive anomaly center was at 40N and right now it's at more like 48N.  That equates to a huge difference in how far south cold air will be able penetrate.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Totally wanna switch places. But I'll get my rain in Kentucky soon.. ⛈️

I would take your climate by a small margin over this.  You do a lot better for cold mins and snow which I really like.  Still nowhere near what I would really consider perfect though.

I think KY would have some real drawbacks for me, but they certainly get some good stuff.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have done some thinking why Columbus Day is such a big deal.  I think you have to look at the context.  When he discovered America the people in Europe had no idea that North America even existed.  He opened up a whole new world to them so it's understandable that people (which people?)made a big deal out of it.  Eventually that fame they bestowed upon him was transferred to the United States with the Pilgrims and early settlers.  It's only recently it kind of dawned on us that he was actually late to the party so to speak.

That having been said I think the revulsion people feel for him is kind of overblown.  We don't even know for sure what actually happened in any kind of detail.  Things get distorted over time.

A bunch of people died of smallpox from it. I guess they should celebrate that and enjoy that their ancestors’ loved ones were killed by Europeans’ second discovery of North America. Also. He didn’t discover America, the Haplogroup Q peoples did, literally many thousands of years earlier. And things were pretty cold and enjoyable for them.

And for the record. I don’t give a shitt what they call that storm. They could call it the ‘FuckFart Storm’ and I wouldn’t care.

Actually I enjoy calling it ‘The Big Blow’

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I totally agree that November could do a 180.  It's pretty common after a cold October in a Nina season.  Some examples would be 1949, 1971, and 2008.  All winners.

Warmest November on record was 49 here and elsewhere. 

Also, La Palma.. 🌋!

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

To further expound on the question of amplification.  In January 2008 the mean positive anomaly center was at 40N and right now it's at more like 48N.  That equates to a huge difference in how far south cold air will be able penetrate.

We shall see. Has had a lot of trouble crossing the 45th parallel since the 16-17 winter. Shitty cycle.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m probably one of the lefty-iest people here, I think Columbus isn’t worth a holiday*… and I really don’t have much of a bone to pick with the name “Columbus Day Storm,” because at the time the storm was named, Columbus Day was still a pretty big thing (thus a logical choice to base the name of the storm on). It’s gotten less and less a thing, particularly in the western states, as the decades have passed. None of my employers (back to the mid/late 80’s, so this is not a recent thing) have ever given it as a standard paid holiday.

* Not only is there his treatment of the indigenous people, he really didn’t discover the New World. Asian tribes crossing the Bering land bridge were by far the first to discover the Americas. Columbus wasn’t even the first European; the Vikings beat him by nearly five hundred years.

I consider myself to be pretty lefty on the spectrum and I also think the Columbus Day Storm as a name is fine-- as it happened on what was Columbus Day at the time. That being said, I think now people are slowly realizing that perhaps we have more to celebrate than someone with such a marred history who was not only a pretty morally-bankrupt person, but also as you mentioned pretty late to the chase (I guess we have Leif Erikson Trail to celebrate the first European to "discover" America). It's very much incomparable to a standard holiday like Veterans Day or Memorial Day, as we don't even get any time off or anything. 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have done some thinking why Columbus Day is such a big deal.  I think you have to look at the context.  When he discovered America the people in Europe had no idea that North America even existed.  He opened up a whole new world to them so it's understandable that people made a big deal out of it.  Eventually that fame they bestowed upon him was transferred to the United States with the Pilgrims and early settlers.  It's only recently it kind of dawned on us that he was actually late to the party so to speak.

Actually, no. He totally misjudged the diameter of the Earth (despite the ancient Greeks having come to a reasonably close estimate of it), and thought he had sailed clear to India. It's why the islands he found were called the West Indies and their inhabitants Indians.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

True, but I'm sure people who like cold are a bit annoyed at this point.  Some parts of the country are really torching.

Significant cold simply doesn’t happen here at this time of year. Can’t speak for all winter lovers, but I personally don’t even begin to look for cold and/or snow chances until mid/late November. And (usually) it doesn’t get interesting at all until after New Years.

Very different climate/seasonal progression out this way..parts of the PNW are seeing low temps that would register as below average even in January. That’s literally *impossible* to pull off here in October, save maybe right at the end of the month.

 

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37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think you are kind of selling it short.  It would certainly be cold enough in the winter for snow given the temps we've been seeing recently.  Keep in mind this is going to be a top 5% cold first half of October.  Furthermore this is the first legit cold October during a Nina since 1984.  That was a famously blocky winter.

I think this pattern would produce larger negative anomalies this time of year than it would during say December or January. 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Significant cold simply doesn’t happen here at this time of year. Can’t speak for all winter lovers, but I personally don’t even begin to look for cold and/or snow chances until mid/late November. And (usually) it doesn’t get interesting at all until after New Years.

Very different climate/seasonal progression out this way..parts of the PNW are seeing low temps that would register as below average even in January. That’s literally *impossible* to pull off here before Halloween, at earliest.

 

Yeah... its strange.   Its just about 80 degrees in Minneapolis right now and in a few weeks it will be probably be in the single digits and snowing.   Meanwhile... its in the 50s and threatening to rain here and yet we will probably have this same general weather for most of the winter.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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47 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not really an arctic outbreak type pattern though. Pretty progressive with a flattish, at times, Aleutian Ridge and little to no ridging into Alaska.  

Yeah, it’s a lot more similar to 2007/08. It’s a cold pattern now because the Pacific is relatively cold but come midwinter it would be kinda meh, unless your name is Tim or Andrew.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Significant cold simply doesn’t happen here at this time of year. Can’t speak for all winter lovers, but I personally don’t even begin to look for cold and/or snow chances until mid/late November. And (usually) it doesn’t get interesting at all until after New Years.

Very different climate/seasonal progression out this way..parts of the PNW are seeing low temps that would register as below average even in January. That’s literally *impossible* to pull off here in October, save maybe right at the end of the month.

By contrast, it seems much easier for areas to our east to get cold outbreaks in the spring. A big March snowstorm is far less of an exceptional thing for you than it is for us.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, it’s a lot more similar to 2007/08. It’s a cold pattern now because the Pacific is relatively cold but come midwinter it would be kinda meh, unless your name is Tim or Andrew.

Cold maritime polar pattern

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Snoqualmie Ridge yesterday. Certain areas have not peak yet but these beautiful ones are. Stunning colors. 

82356877-54AB-4337-9A05-7351D2772EBB.jpeg

Nice... those non-native trees tend to put on quite a show.    Most of the native trees are still green though.   You are spending lots of time around Snoqualmie Ridge lately!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Cool! Still planning on camping?? Southern Montana into Wyoming looks to be ground zero for Monday/Tuesday. Expecting 8-12” of snowfall here.

Watching the Bobcat game (they are actually showing it!) and it looks like its a beautiful day there today.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice... those non-native trees tend to put on quite a show.    Most of the native trees are still green though.   You are spending lots of time around Snoqualmie Ridge lately!  

The area is easily one of the most beautiful places I’ve been to! So I love to visit. :)
 

The native ones are definitely not. After the wedding last month, my wife and I decided we wanted to go back to the golf club to take some fall pictures, especially on the road leading in. Yesterday was too nice of an opportunity to pass up because end of the month might be too rainy/gloomy. Unfortunately, the trees on that road have not peak yet so we settled for this one.  Those trees once they peak will be stunning! 
 

We almost went to Rockwood Farm  near NB, but have no idea if they even open. 
 

 

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13 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Blast red tree lined street!! 

This was the scene that we were going for… this is a pic of rockwood farm in north bend. We’ll come back in a few weeks when the native trees are closer to peaking. 

7DDF2A3E-A482-42DE-BF61-41A778418399.png

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This was the scene that we were going for… this is a pic of rockwood farm in north bend. We’ll come back in a few weeks when the native trees are closer to peaking. 

7DDF2A3E-A482-42DE-BF61-41A778418399.png

I have not heard of Rockwood Farm... but probably have been in that area.   Are these pics from near there?   Top one was late October in 2017 and bottom was late October in 2018.

 

22712393_1481688538566016_5571799770796352363_o.jpg

44573182_1907042452697287_3691438590350327808_n.jpg

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34 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

By contrast, it seems much easier for areas to our east to get cold outbreaks in the spring. A big March snowstorm is far less of an exceptional thing for you than it is for us.

We actually average more snowfall in March than December in the 1991-2020 averages. And snow in April is just as common as snow in November.

Heck it snowed here on May 10th in 2020. Really is fascinating how these seasonal dynamics play out. The Arctic is so much warmer in the autumn (with a much weaker meridional thermal gradient) that the wave trains/dynamics behave much differently compared to winter/spring.

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A bunch of people died of smallpox from it. I guess they should celebrate that and enjoy that their ancestors’ loved ones were killed by Europeans’ second discovery of North America. Also. He didn’t discover America, the Haplogroup Q peoples did, literally many thousands of years earlier. And things were pretty cold and enjoyable for them.

And for the record. I don’t give a shitt what they call that storm. They could call it the ‘FuckFart Storm’ and I wouldn’t care.

Actually I enjoy calling it ‘The Big Blow’

I agree with much of this although the smallpox was unintentional, and inevitable as travel across the Atlantic become possible and more common.  Somebody would have eventually done it if not Columbus.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

We actually average more snowfall in March than December now. And snow in April is just as common as snow in November.

Heck it snowed here on May 10th in 2020. Really is fascinating how these seasonal dynamics play out. The Arctic is so much warmer in the autumn (with a much weaker meridional thermal gradient) that the wave trains/dynamics behave much differently compared to winter/spring.

March is the old November now here.

Not only have more 3+ inch events happened in March, I've accumulated more days I observed snow falling. 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I would take your climate by a small margin over this.  You do a lot better for cold mins and snow which I really like.  Still nowhere near what I would really consider perfect though.

I think KY would have some real drawbacks for me, but they certainly get some good stuff.

KY sucks in the summer heat/humidity department. But if he enjoys severe weather, then yeah it’ll blow away what he sees in Oregon (perhaps literally). :lol: 

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31 minutes ago, snow drift said:

2007 still showing up as an analog.

610analog.off (3).gif

814analog.off (4).gif

So is 1955 and a host of other great ones.  We also need to bear in mind 2007-08 came close to greatness more than once.  If that positive anom center off the coast had been any further north it could have been much better.  This will be a weaker Nina and weaker -QBO so a good outcome is highly possible.  I would call 1955, 1970, 1971, and 2007 as well as some others pretty solid analogs right now.  As Phil pointed out 1984-85 was a -QBO and that winter was the blockiest I've ever seen as well as quite cold here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

March is the old November now here.

Not only have more 3+ inch events happened in March, I've accumulated more days I observed snow falling. 

In WA November is hands down better with a few notable exceptions.  We have had great November events here a number of times.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

March is the old November now here.

Not only have more 3+ inch events happened in March, I've accumulated more days I observed snow falling. 

Yeah similar story here (though November has never been a legit winter month locally).

December has just collapsed as a winter month. Back in the 18th/19th centuries it performed just as well as February if not better in some decades, but now it’s basically just another autumn month.

On the other hand, the snowfall average for March actually increased in the 1991-2020 averages, and we set a new record low for the month (-2°F) in 2014.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

KY sucks in the summer heat/humidity department. But if he enjoys severe weather, then yeah it’ll blow away what he sees in Oregon (perhaps literally). :lol: 

I would hate the summers.  The summers here score very high points in my book.  I love the autumn here most years also.  Late winter and early spring can be a total drag though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 6

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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