GHweatherChris Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Lol. We’ve seen 10-12” of snow in the last 33 months. And just had three consecutive 70+ days. After a summer with 50+ days above 90°F. You guys have done much better in recent years. You have seen way more snow in total than that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 I'm pretty hard pressed to remember any time we've had back to back AR events (this one and the one this weekend) in a short period of time since 1990. This is a quite a rarity made even more impressive by the huge AR they had in CA a few weeks back also. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We have had nice November s followed by good winters. We’ve been torching for almost a month now, maybe it will eventually flip. In Nina winters awful patterns in November very often lead to good winters in fact. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: You have seen way more snow in total than that. Nope. DCA has only seen 9.7” since February 2019. Here it’s more like a foot, maybe a little more. Atrocious stretch, all things considered. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Up to 63F. Smoking in my t shirt on the porch. 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Tropical forcing analogs still look interesting in December, but now with a little more +EPO component by mid-December. Not too far off from the mean state in 2007/08. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 2nd hand reports of some good lightning in downtown Seattle. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Surprise lightning storm here. Big bolt sniped me right overhead, what a surprise! I was out to watch the rain, didn’t expect any lightning. 4 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, smerfylicious said: 2nd hand reports of some good lightning in downtown Seattle. Pretty surprising. I think I remember lightning in a case like this before and the NWS called it slantwise convection whatever that is. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, Phil said: Tropical forcing analogs still look interesting in December, but now with a little more +EPO component by mid-December. Not too far off from the mean state in 2007/08. I hope you have analogs other than 2007. I still say this one won't be as zonal as that winter. There are important differences this year. Looking at that map you posted it looks like the composite for 1970-71. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 32 and raining at Stevens Pass. Sad. Build up that snowpack! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 I ended up with 2.07" of rain for Thursday. Quite impressively that is my second 2 inch day in the last two weeks. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 minute ago, smerfylicious said: 32 and raining at Stevens Pass. Sad. Build up that snowpack! You can kiss most of the snow on the ground goodbye after this weekend. This is classic behavior before a major cold wave though. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 The radar shows a lot more rain coming before it ends. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 No AR's in the fall of 2007. That's a big difference right there. This season is AR happy, and that normally equates to big cold later on. Another huge difference between this and the fall of 2007 is 2007 didn't have the huge positive height anoms over much of Canada that we've seen over the past few weeks. 1970 had that. I'm as stuck on 1970 as Phil is on 2007. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You can kiss most of the snow on the ground goodbye after this weekend. This is classic behavior before a major cold wave though. At least I'm apparently in the bullseye on the convergence zones next week. If I get a trace of snow, I'll take an unflattering picture of it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 The trajectory of this moisture plume is much more out of the west than the last AR we had. This is out of the 1990 playbook. I still remember that autumn in vivid detail. The Arctic blast that came later was incredible. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Surprise lightning storm here. Big bolt sniped me right overhead, what a surprise! I was out to watch the rain, didn’t expect any lightning. We can't rule out rogue isolated strikes anywhere from NW Oregon up through Western Nebraskington. To my surprise we have some MUCAPE in play. This coupled with modestly steep 700-500mb lapse rates of 6.5C/km(especially when considering a subtropical air mass), and 40-60kts 0-6km deep layer shear. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The trajectory of this moisture plume is much more out of the west than the last AR we had. This is out of the 1990 playbook. I still remember that autumn in vivid detail. The Arctic blast that came later was incredible. Yeah I agree this Fall is unfolding very well in our favor and if you factor in the number of mega deep lows and ARs something memorable is in the offing for us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 Areas affected...Northwest OR...Western WA Concerning...Heavy rainfall Valid 120925Z - 121800Z SUMMARY...Atmospheric river conditions will continue to produce heavy rainfall through the mid-morning hours for much of western Washington and northwest Oregon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall for orographically favored locations will lead to additional instances of enhanced run-off concerns and possible flooding. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES-17 satellite imagery continues to portray a corridor of enhanced moisture that is associated with an atmospheric river oriented from WSW to ENE, originating from near 30 degrees north over the central Pacific. Regional Doppler radars indicate a substantial area of moderate to heavy showers moving across western Washington and northwest Oregon, particularly across the coastal ranges and the western slopes of the Cascades. It is these areas where the flow will be orthogonal to the terrain and the greatest rainfall totals realized. A strong west-southwest low-level jet on the order of 50 mph, in combination of IVT values of 600-800 kg/m/s and PWs approaching 1.5 inches within the moisture plume, will sustain widespread moderate to heavy rainfall through sunrise, followed by a gradual abatement in intensity going through the middle to late morning hours. The latest CAM guidance is suggesting the potential for up to 3 inches of additional rainfall through 18Z, particularly with the HRRR and WRF. Given the saturated soils with 2-4 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours, there will be growing concerns for runoff problems and localized flooding. Some of the area burn scars will be more sensitive to these heavier rains and should be closely monitored. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021 Areas affected...Northwest OR...Western WA Concerning...Heavy rainfall Valid 120925Z - 121800Z SUMMARY...Atmospheric river conditions will continue to produce heavy rainfall through the mid-morning hours for much of western Washington and northwest Oregon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall for orographically favored locations will lead to additional instances of enhanced run-off concerns and possible flooding. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES-17 satellite imagery continues to portray a corridor of enhanced moisture that is associated with an atmospheric river oriented from WSW to ENE, originating from near 30 degrees north over the central Pacific. Regional Doppler radars indicate a substantial area of moderate to heavy showers moving across western Washington and northwest Oregon, particularly across the coastal ranges and the western slopes of the Cascades. It is these areas where the flow will be orthogonal to the terrain and the greatest rainfall totals realized. A strong west-southwest low-level jet on the order of 50 mph, in combination of IVT values of 600-800 kg/m/s and PWs approaching 1.5 inches within the moisture plume, will sustain widespread moderate to heavy rainfall through sunrise, followed by a gradual abatement in intensity going through the middle to late morning hours. The latest CAM guidance is suggesting the potential for up to 3 inches of additional rainfall through 18Z, particularly with the HRRR and WRF. Given the saturated soils with 2-4 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours, there will be growing concerns for runoff problems and localized flooding. Some of the area burn scars will be more sensitive to these heavier rains and should be closely monitored. Did someone drew a thumb up?! How dare them! We're getting flooded here man! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Yesterday I recorded 2.37" of rain at my station which sets an ALL TIME daily record! It's only the 4th time I've recorded over 2" of rain in one day. 1 1 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Looks like Portland is the target for this next band of rain. Will probably be some urban flooding tomorrow morning. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 6z GFS Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Trough digging a bit better. If this trend continues it could be a bit chilly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 56/45 with 1.26" of rain day for yesterday at SEA. Fell slightly short of daily record of 1.48" from 1973. Now well over 4" for the month. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Still 60F out there. Warm fall so far. Maybe we can finish above normal in precip for the month because the elusive colder and wetter than normal month appears to be perpetually disallowed by Mother Nature. 1 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Great 6z run! Wet, A lot of Mt. Snow, chilly air masses, and mega cold building from central BC/AB northward! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 It's also been astonishingly wet since the new water year start (Oct. 1). Now over 10" of rain at 10.13" as of yesterday, 4.01" above normal. Yup.... over 10" of rain since Oct 1. Normal period is 1991 to 2020. More to come it seems. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Great 6z run! Wet, A lot of Mt. Snow, chilly air masses, and mega cold building from central BC/AB northward! Randy @MossManis getting in on the action! 6" for Mt. Vernon! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 This is back to back 6z runs that shows some cool/cold in the 7-10 range. Keep it moving forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 516 thickness contour down into southern BC! C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 516 thickness contour down into southern BC! C'MON!!!! If anything, take it as a warning shot going forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 2:50 AM Radar Update It appears the AR is focused at PDX metro tonight as rain continues to develop and quickly increase in intensity. Very heavy rain is streaming into the area. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: If anything, take it as a warning shot going forward. Check out the progression of arctic air into BC/AB. Day 4-8. 850s -33c. It makes me think, "what IF?" and if we had a less progressive pattern we would be scoring big time! It's a matter of time! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 I have to get some rest. Onto fun 12z runs! 12z GFS in 4 hours 39 minutes 12z ECMWF in 6 hours 49 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Check out the progression of arctic air into BC/AB. Day 4-8. 850s -33c. It makes me think, "what IF?" and if we had a less progressive pattern we would be scoring big time! It's a matter of time! There's ALWAYS something. But it's only a matter of time before the Pacific shuts down and hopefully we'll get the goodies. BELIEVE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Down to 59F. Having seizures now so I'm gonna hit the hay. Hopefully the morning GFS can show something meaningful. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Down to 59F. Having seizures now so I'm gonna hit the hay. Hopefully the morning GFS can show something meaningful. Hoping for a good 12z run! Take care of yourself man 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 If we were into late November or December I would look for jet suppression and a cold wave as it often occurs after this extremely wet pattern with ARs ends, but I don't know this early in the Fall. By the way for PDX metro insanely wet out there this morning. Moderate to heavy rain continues with a breezy to at times gusty south wind thrown in the mix. 5:24 AM Radar Update 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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