Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 GFS is bouncing around a lot. Like you said, having a hard time trying to figure out what to do with this wave. First it was next Sunday...and then nothing....and now Friday. Prolly will change a lot more but it will make for some interesting runs. Early to mid week looks very wet. An active week nonetheless. Bodes well for the LRC!Yup, pattern is going to get juiced up big time. ENSO 3.4 Region almost at 3C with a solid central based Nino will cause massive amount of forcing near the dateline. Once you get into the heart of Winter Dec-Feb, the reaction from the STJ is going to be very interesting to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 00z GFS showing a Thanksgiving Day monster...something I've been talking about to look out for over 10 days ago using the Bearing Sea Rule.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Pretty impressive run... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111500/gfs_asnow_ncus_28.pngthing is on crack, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 thing is on crack, I think.LOL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 00z GGEM now starting to show this wave for next Fri/Sat.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 00z GGEM juiced up...LOL...I-80 snowstorm??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111500/gem_asnow_ncus_34.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Let's do it!^ I'm ready for snow. Yard will be cleaned up tomorrow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 How does the euro look ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 You guys clean up on that round and I get snow down here on Thanksgiving. Sounds like a winner to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Let's bring it! At this point an 1" of snow would make my day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Not so much about any up coming systems but more of where we are at right now with a warm first half of this week coming up.we are now at the half way point of November 2015 and Grand Rapids along with other locations is still running at the warmest November in record pace. Here if GR as of yesterday the mean temp is 46.7° or +6.4° the record warmest November in GR was 47.6° back in 1931. With the second warmest being 46.8° in 2001. With a few more warm days ahead before we cool down we will have to see how this month ends up but it looks like it will be above average and maybe, Just maybe one of the warmest on record. A top 5 at this time looks do able but we shall see. BTW both 1931/32 and 2001/02 were very warm winters with 31/32. With 31/32 not very snowy (41.1”) and while 01/02 was snowy (105.2”) of that 105” 53.2” fell from December 23rd to the 31st 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 00z Euro is showing 3-6" in NE, 1-3" S IA/C IL/N IN/N OH...a bit south this run and not as organized but a nice first snow over-running event. Then it has another weak wave dropping 1-2" in the same locals on Monday with a storm trying to get organized near the Pan Handle next Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 00z GGEM juiced up...LOL...I-80 snowstorm??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111500/gem_asnow_ncus_34.pngI Will have to see how and if this plays out. We shall see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 6z GFS has 6-12 from minny through Michigan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 06z GFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111506/gfs_asnow_ncus_31.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Great to see a system to track. Lots of time and the models will be changing but happy to see he first potential snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Best chance at something big might.be when nao flips back positive while the epo stays negative for a bit longer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 What a gorgeous day, I was able to put up quite a few of my x mas lights. I hope to finish tomorrow, things look wet next week. I'm very excited to see lezaks winter forecast.....I'm a little worried about the lack of arctic air so far this fall. Will be interesting to see how much that plays into the LRC.....I think I might also take advantage of today's weather and put up at least my Christmas Lights on the gutters/bushes. Thinking about heading to AZ this coming week for Thanksgiving and the last thing I'd want to have happen is there to be snow on the ground when I come back and no decorations. I made that mistake in 2010 (I think) and never again! The way the pattern is evolving on the Euro Ensembles, you guys out there only prob have a few more nice days remaining before it turns cold/wintry. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 I think I might also take advantage of today's weather and put up at least my Christmas Lights on the gutters/bushes. Thinking about heading to AZ this coming week for Thanksgiving and the last thing I'd want to have happen is there to be snow on the ground when I come back and no decorations. I made that mistake in 2010 (I think) and never again! The way the pattern is evolving on the Euro Ensembles, you guys out there only prob have a few more nice days remaining before it turns cold/wintry.Got to take advantage of the nice weather!! I start basketball practice tomorrow so my time will be limited. I don't mind putting my timers up in cold weather, the lights not so much. I'm hoping we can get a decent snowpack going around or after thanksgiving.....nothing makes the lights look better than a deep snowpack!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z GFS with Warning level snows for Iowa and Illinois Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12z GFS looking like the 00z Euro but with more moisture. -EPO pushing things a bit farther south. I've learned that if we see a declining EPO, models tend to react later as we get closer to an event and push storm track south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Here is what usually happens with a -EPO in the month of November. EPO is going into the tank by the 24th through end of the month. I'm already beginning to think the northern tier of states may see record cold to finish off the month, esp if some snow is laid down. The month started off as a torch, but looks to finish as a cold one. http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/EPOnew/EPOnew_neg_11nov.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 If that's the case, I really hope the EPO doesn't go too far negative. The last couple years it has caused most storm to go South of me. Time to make a thread on this storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Weekend snow event is mostly gone from the 12z CMC... just has a weak event passing sw of Iowa. Obviously, the models are not going to have a great handle on the shortwave dropping in from the pacnw, riding the southern edge of the cold shot, until later in the week. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 If that's the case, I really hope the EPO doesn't go too far negative. The last couple years it has caused most storm to go South of me. Time to make a thread on this storm?Not just yet, still about 6 days away...who knows, it could fizzle out...I'd say if by Mon/Tues its still showing up we can. Regarding EPO, you got that right...early on it may not be such a problem pushing storm track south, but later on in December it can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 For some odd reason I keep thinking the storm will be tracking through on Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12z Gfs Looks promising for a snowstorm next weekend then gets cold with additional chances for more snow as we head towards thanksgiving & end of November by the start of December in fantasy land we struggle to get to 20 for day time highs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12z Euro much lighter and pushes snow band even farther south...1-2" from NE/N MO/S IA/C IL/C IN/OH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 The cold air will be around next weekend, so that gives a better chance that someone will see some snow fall and accumulate. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Euro has a much weaker wave moving through effecting mostly southern Iowa and Northern Missouri this weekend, Nebraska too, but looks like light snow accumulations. Similar to latest Canadian. We'll see what happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 18z GFS still showing an I-80 snowstorm for Fri/Sat...3-6+" from NE/IA/N IL.... Edit: 18z GFS digs this system as it cuts NE towards the Lower Lakes...juicier than its previous run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 18z GFS still showing an I-80 snowstorm for Fri/Sat...3-6+" from NE/IA/N IL.... Edit: 18z GFS digs this system as it cuts NE towards the Lower Lakes...juicier than its previous run...Even some lollipop 12" amounts. Lol. GFS is on its own right. And that is a sharp cut off on the north and south edges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Even some lollipop 12" amounts. Lol. GFS is on its own right. And that is a sharp cut off on the north and south edges.My weather forecaster called for Rain/Snow mix and said that things might get wintry next weekend. I wonder how SEMI does with this one. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 What a difference a year makes...remember it like it was yesterday... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 High of 63° today with no clouds to speak of. Had a 37° spread in temps this weekend. Nice weather, but I'm ready for snow now! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 0z GFS coming in north/wetter for the snow it looks like (at least through HR 108) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 5-8 inch snow band runs from central MN into north/central WI. Way north this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Today here in Grand Rapids it was sunny with a high at the airport of 63° (the high was 65° here at my house) this compares to last year when from November 13th to the 20th when 28.9" of snow fell here in Grand Rapids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 GFS is all over the place. Least its still showing a system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Low pressure next weekend will follow the baroclinic zone that the mid week storm lays out. Snow band is going to oscillate all over the place this week. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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