2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[East Dubzz]

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS drills Nebraska. Wow. Too bad it is 5 days out. 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS. 

[Clinton]

2nd wave on the GFS keeps snow going all day Thursday

 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

2nd wave on the GFS keeps snow going all day Thursday

 

Getting GHD-1 vibes…the consistency is scary this far out…

[bud2380]

The GFS shifted a bit south but obviously still much further north than the Euro. Chicago manages to be in the crosshairs of both models. Looks pretty good there. 

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

Getting GHD-1 vibes…the consistency is scary this far out…

Actually, Euro paints GHD-1 style storm, while the GFS is firmly in the GHD-2/Dec 2000 event mode. The last 2 were massive hitters across the I-94 corridor here in SMI with 20" in Jackson in '00, and Kzoo scoring the jackzone of 20" in 2015. Sign me up! 

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

If it pans out I hope your feeling good enough to enjoy it.  I know you were hoping for some warmer weather but that doesn't look to be headed your way anytime soon.

Thank you amigo! That is key. I've had a miserable last 7 days with swollen lower legs & feet that had some infection develop and the pain at times has been debilitating. 4th day on an anti-biotic and while the response has seemed a bit slower than other times I've had to use such, I think I am slowly turning a corner after 16 total days with the issue. By next week's event I will (knock on wood) be much better and have some decent mobility restored. I hope a bunch of us can share a good hit similar to the GHD storms! 

[bud2380]

18z GEFS expanded further south.  North edge didn’t move a lot. No drastic change. 

[Clinton]

18z GEFS

[bud2380]

It’s times like this I really miss the DGEX. Someone would be getting 40” on it. 

[jaster220]

The sig qpf is an ingredient missing here (like elsewhere) all winter.

DTX

Passage of this front Tuesday night sets the stage for the mid week
event that continues to show potential for a lengthy period of
winter weather. Today`s extended model runs show some convergence of
solutions on a colder outcome for SE MI, or one that at least offers
a smaller mixed precip footprint in the blended guidance database.
As confidence increases in the position of the bulk frontal zone,
additional refinement can be made on binning precipitation type to
the QPF field. A strong draw of Gulf moisture into the Ohio valley
is shown to result in impressive 2 to 3 day totals across the
southern Great Lakes from late Wednesday into early Friday of next
week.

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control and snow is still falling at the end of the run for Chicago and points east.

[Stacsh]

Go north please!

[bud2380]

18z EPS did come north a bit. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I was talking to our Assistant Principal today at school. We have not had a snow day or late start this year. Almost unheard of going into February. Last year we had 5 snow/cold days and three 10 AM starts. He talked to our Superintendent yesterday. If we have any type of decent storm next week, he will probably call off. Had lots of flu and stomach flu in the buildings, so it might heal some kids and teachers up. Fingers crossed. Good to have days to use. Our school calendar builds in 5 days and several late starts. Last time we had to make up days was 2006. 

[bud2380]

18z Euro mean came north a tick as well. Not a lot but a little. Still in the right direction for iowa. 

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

18z Euro mean came north a tick as well. Not a lot but a little. Still in the right direction for iowa. 

Do you have a snow map of the 18z Euro?

[bud2380]

The all time state record for 24 hour snowfall in Iowa is 24” set in 1918. That makes iowa the 6th lowest 24 hour snowfall in the United States. Which is crazy to think about. Even South Carolina’s record is 24”. It just doesn’t snow really heavy in iowa all that often. 

[bud2380]

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

The all time state record for 24 hour snowfall in Iowa is 24” set in 1918. That makes iowa the 6th lowest 24 hour snowfall in the United States. Which is crazy to think about. Even South Carolina’s record is 24”. It just doesn’t snow really heavy in iowa all that often. 

I saw 36"  from 4 am until 7 pm on  feb 11th  1983 Mt Airy Maryland about 35 miles west of I95 1000 ft elevation.  Completely  whiteout conditions  6 to 7 hours with continuous thundersnow. Truly unforgettable.. 

[bud2380]

[East Dubzz]

I’m a little surprised ND and WI are that lower too.

[The Snowman]

Present & accounted for, for the 00z GFS

Looking forward to my hopes shattering on this run

[jcwxguy]

00z icon is south 

but still ok for lincoln and omaha, just not me

lol

[centralweather44]

Seems like 18 & 00z runs have been south for us in SE Nebraska. Then day runs look better. Expecting the same again here tonight. Hoping for more consistency in the next day or two 

[GDR]

Rain fest on icon

[Clinton]

0z ICON has 2 waves like the 18z GFS absolutely buries KC and Chicago

[The Snowman]

Energy that will eventually produce this storm looks further south off the SW coast of Cali at Hour 66 (compared to 18z)

[The Snowman]

9 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Energy that will eventually produce this storm looks further south off the SW coast of Cali at Hour 66 (compared to 18z)

A little faster & further south as it starts coming onshore California at Hour 102

[GDR]

Gfs going south

[CentralNebWeather]

A little south and less snow totals, but I’d take this any day. 

[jcwxguy]

[Jayhawker85]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z ICON has 2 waves like the 18z GFS absolutely buries KC and Chicago

This would be a epic dream!!

[Clinton]

0z GFS for those further east

[The Snowman]

Bummer run

 

I say despite 6" in the forecast

[Clinton]

Just now, Jayhawker85 said:

This would be a epic dream!!

It and the GFS look great, now we have to hold it for 4 more days lol.

[Stacsh]

Yup I’m out.  This is going to continue to go south.  Prepare to be disappointed.  Icon would be the longest snowfall of all time though. Lol

[bud2380]

Can’t say that run of the GFS makes me feel good. Even though it shows 8” here the further south solution appears it’s winning out. 

[bud2380]

The Canadian and UK are complete disasters. 

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The Canadian and UK are complete disasters. 

The UK is way beyond south.

It's increasingly looking like Iowa can wave bye-bye to this one.