TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Sun is coming out in many places... and blue sky approaching here from the south and west. Almost better than the snow given the dark, rainy conditions lately. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 So far 06z gfs run is the only thing I can see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Good question... Guess the huge concern at the moment are the huge record breaking hot temps at PDX.Why can't I talk about what the weather is doing down here? We don't have any heavy rain or snow to speak of. Mid-60s in the last half of November would be notable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Why can't I talk about what the weather is doing down here? We don't have any heavy rain or snow to speak of. Mid-60s in the last half of November would be notable.Never said you couldn't...talk away! I expect it to be very intellectual however Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Never said you couldn't...talk away! I expect it to be very intellectual however Every discussion... the merit of all weather... hinges SOLELY on the departure from normal at PDX. Get it straight Randy! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Sun is out! Bye snow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Sun is out! Bye snow.Until next week...possibly! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Sounds like from newest afd that winds sustained 35 knots what ever that means plus gusts from 40 to 70 but really only Snohomish county nortg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 The 12z Canadian is almost identical to the GFS although a bit colder. Both show a high snow threat for right around Thanksgiving. It doesn't look quite as ominous for winds on Tuesday also. I'm still on the fence about that. The low center is further north than would normally be required a for a big blow here and the central pressure is only in the high 980s. As Bainbridge also pointed out there will be no northward momentum from the storm itself. I could see a widespread respectable blow, but not as strong as the Dec 2006 event. I think a triple point occlusion played into the 2006 storm, and I'm not sure if that will be factor this time or not. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z ECMWF does not show a huge windstorm on Tuesday. Just windy through the Sound. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 The 12z Canadian is almost identical to the GFS although a bit colder. Both show a high snow threat for right around Thanksgiving.Almost seems like November snow is becoming the norm! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z ECMWF does not show a huge windstorm on Tuesday. Just windy through the Sound.So NAM and GFS yes, ECMWF no, what about the GEM? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z ECMWF is way wetter (rain) for Thursday into Friday. So much for those dry days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z ECMWF does not show a huge windstorm on Tuesday. Just windy through the Sound.Disagree. The Euro is just as windy as the GFS. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 The 12z GFS ensemble has a lot of good members in the 9 to 10 day time frame. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Disagree. The Euro is just as windy as the GFS. Screenshot 2015-11-15 at 10.55.44 AM.png It appears it keeps the high winds near Puget Sound. Fine with me. I still think this one will be a learning experience to some extent. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Disagree. The Euro is just as windy as the GFS. Screenshot 2015-11-15 at 10.55.44 AM.png That does not look too windy out here... maybe 30 mph? That is just a normal November day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z ECMWF going way east with the cold next week compared to previous runs and the other models. It already did the same thing for Thursday and Friday and that appears to be reality. Not good. You can talk about potential all you want... but until the ECMWF shows the real deal we really don't have anything. And the trend is not our friend with any of this right now with the ECMWF. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111512!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Euro looks nice and continental at days 8-9. Similar to GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 That does not look too windy out here... maybe 30 mph? That is just a normal November day. Looks pretty intense for the Sound though. Euro shows 35-40 knot sustained winds for Seattle. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 The 12z ECMWF took a step in the right direction. Still not quite as good as the GFS or Canadian, but there's plenty of time... All three agree on cold temps for Thanksgiving though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Euro looks nice and continental at days 8-9. Similar to GFS.GFS is way better at day 10. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z ECMWF going way east with the cold next week compared to previous runs and the other models. It already did the same thing for Thursday and Friday and that appears to be reality. Not good. You can talk about potential all you want... but until the ECMWF shows the real deal we really don't have anything. And the trend is not our friend with any of this right now with the ECMWF. Day 9 was the coldest on the ECMWF. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Looks pretty intense for the Sound though. Euro shows 35-40 knot sustained winds for Seattle.Yeah NWS mentions my area as a possible target for high winds but most of western wa will probably go under a high wind watch. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z ECMWF going way east with the cold next week compared to previous runs and the other models. It already did the same thing for Thursday and Friday and that appears to be reality. Not good. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111512!!chart.gif Nope. This is the 12z at day 9, note the -10c 850mb temps near the border. The 00z run was in fact milder and certainly wasn't further west with the trough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Day 9 was the coldest on the ECMWF. Not the point. The discussion was supposed to be cold and snow for Thanksgiving. ECMWF is sliding everything farther east. Way east of the other models by mid-week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 My favorite thing about the 12z runs is that the spike of warmth on Tuesday is quickly replaced by another cold airmass Wednesday. After that, we see a drying trend and look to stay reasonably cool. Maybe a first frost at many stations by later next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12Z Canadian at day 10: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif 12Z GFS at day 10: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif 12Z ECMWF at day 10: http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111512!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Thursday and Friday of this week are seriously wet in SW WA and Oregon on the new ECMWF run. Tons of rain... was supposed to clear and dry. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Not the point. The discussion was supposed to be cold and snow for Thanksgiving. ECMWF is sliding everything farther east. Way east of the other models by mid-week. Once again, nope. The discussion right now is about tracking the cold airmass itself with the exact timing of it being relatively incidental at this point. I think most of us could give a crap whether it's coldest on Thankgiving day or not (especially our Canadian posters, LOL!) , so long as the models trend towards some event for us. The 12z Euro run was favorable, even if only slightly, for continuing that trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Yesterday was the first time SEA didn't reach 50 degrees since February 1st. Shattered the longest such streak by 26 days. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Once again, nope. The discussion right now is about tracking the cold airmass itself with the exact timing of it being relatively incidental at this point. I think most of us could give a crap whether it's coldest on Thankgiving day or not (especially our Canadian posters, LOL!) , so long as the models trend towards some event for us. The 12z Euro run was favorable, even if only slightly, for continuing that trend. Jim said we should be discussing the possibility of a snowy Thanksgiving. So... yep! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Jim said we should be discussing the possibility of a snowy Thanksgiving. So... yep! No he didn't, he said right around Thanksgiving, which could mean a couple days before or after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Jim said we should be discussing the possibility of a snowy Thanksgiving. So... yep! Hmm, quite an interesting take. I myself find that not being ridiculously and moronically obtuse is usually a good start if one is looking to have an actual discussion. But that's just me... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 I'm surprised no one has talked about the white Thanksgiving being shown on the 12z. Tying... conversation has been steered elsewhere! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 I have a tendency to believe the 12Z Euro. Although I agree that we have a nice chance of hitting some snow/cold before the end of December, I don't think Thanksgiving will be the time. Thinking the ridge will end up too far East for anything good. Would love to be proven wrong.The ECMWF loves to exaggerate mountain-torque in the LR, hence the bias to dig energy into the SW. Pretty easy to see on the 8-10 progression, in my opinion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Definitely some arctic members showing up on the NAEFS ensemble around US thanksgiving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 PuyallupJon checking in here. No snow today in the swamp. Closest we got was 37 and rain. Carry on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Hard to see Tuesday verifying as a high-end event with such a massive windfield and such an odd trajectory. Crazy to see it bomb over land though... Much better to focus on snow during a very specific 12 to 18 hour period 10 days from now instead. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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