TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Still calm here and rain stopped... actually see blue sky and the sunset. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Still some intrigue with the ensembles...Not really paying attention until the operational shows something. It is being remarkably consistent. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Still some intrigue with the ensembles...Not really paying attention until the operational shows something. It is being remarkably consistent.Euro and Euro ensembles look like some sort of continentally influenced troughing next week. I am not really feeling a full fledged blast. Some east winds with highs in the mid-40s and lows in the 20s would be nice though. I would say that is very possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Took an hour to get home from work...a 15min drive. Trees down everywhere and no power anywhere that I saw. This is quite the windstorm! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Just lost power here at school. Guess that's my cue to go home! The South wind wasn't that strong here today but around 4:30 the wind abruptly switched to NW and REALLY ramped up. I saw tons of branches falling amd blowing a long way away from their tree right before the power went out. Felt like a war zone driving home with so many branches falling and blowing around. No power here at home either. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Winds gusted to 75mph in the Fraser Valley today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Gullywasher! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 That front was pretty impressive. Intense rain and some pretty high winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Going to be in the dark for a while, saw two power poles snapped with wires down all over near my house. And my wife is stuck in Everett. She tried several routes and no traffic is moving. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 The problem now is that today was pretty hard on mountain snowpack... and now it looks much drier for the next 10 days. There will be some mountain snow but not enough to open all of the ski resorts. Sounds like last year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Winds gusted to 75mph in the Fraser Valley today Nice to see the models weren't off their rockers with this storm, despite the unusual setup. Bummer about all the damage, hopefully no one was seriously hurt. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 116 mph gust at mission ridge ski resort. Not to bad. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 250,000 without power in Western Washington according to King5. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 All of port orchard and south is out. Largest outage I've seen there since 1996 snow storm. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 250,000 without power in Western Washington according to King5.No power here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 116 mph gust at mission ridge ski resort. Not to bad.Make that 135 mph! http://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/missionridge/now/ Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Hey everyone. I used to be a member of this forum back in 2008-2009. Learned a bunch just from lurking around. I have since moved from western wa to eastern wa, specifically Fruitland. My elevation is 2,359. Today was an eventful day, windy all day and picked up substantially as the day led on. Highest gust was 74 at my house. This time last night it was 28 degrees and snowing, woke up to 2" of snow melting very fast as the temp had climbed up to 39 by 7am. By noon it was all gone and dry and sustained 40 mph winds gusting to 60 or so. I am stoked to see what this winter has in store as we are in a very strong El Nino pattern from I have learned recently. What are your guys' predictions for major events over here? I appreciate it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Hey everyone. I used to be a member of this forum back in 2008-2009. Learned a bunch just from lurking around. I have since moved from western wa to eastern wa, specifically Fruitland. My elevation is 2,359. Today was an eventful day, windy all day and picked up substantially as the day led on. Highest gust was 74 at my house. This time last night it was 28 degrees and snowing, woke up to 2" of snow melting very fast as the temp had climbed up to 39 by 7am. By noon it was all gone and dry and sustained 40 mph winds gusting to 60 or so. I am stoked to see what this winter has in store as we are in a very strong El Nino pattern from I have learned recently. What are your guys' predictions for major events over here? I appreciate it. Welcome to the new forum, and keep posting. You are from a very unique part of the state! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Quite the hailstorm here in the last 10 minutes. Ground is white. Still calm. Don't think wind ever got above 5 mph today here. However... the roads down below us are under water. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 WNW gust to 37mph at PDX in the last hour. Rare to see gusty winds from that direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 0z GFS looking good. Big improvement over 18z. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Snohomish PUD says 150,000 residences are without power and this will be one of their worst storms in history. This after the August storm broke their record for most outages ever. Hope it's not out for 3 days again like it was then. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 This storm didnt have huge winds on west side but they lasted most of the day and the ground is very saturated. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 This storm didnt have huge winds on west side but they lasted most of the day and the ground is very saturated. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 This storm didnt have huge winds on west side but they lasted most of the day and the ground is very saturated. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Stupid phone 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 0z GFS looking good. Big improvement over 18z. Way better. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Quite the hailstorm here in the last 10 minutes. Ground is white. Still calm. Don't think wind ever got above 5 mph today here. However... the roads down below us are under water.Chains required on Snoqualmie Pass because of hail right now. I've never seen that before. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Thursday is a perfect day given the existing conditions. Sunny in all the places that have been far too wet lately... and cloudy and raining down in Oregon where they need it. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.45.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Can someone post some oz images. I can't download them on 4g for some reason. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 GFS was better... but Canadian is worse for next week. Here is the new 00Z run for next Wednesday: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif And the 12Z run for the same time: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif For comparison... the new 00Z GFS for next Wednesday: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Can someone post some oz images. I can't download them on 4g for some reason. Hour 156. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Here is hour 162 on the 00z GFS... much better and better progression that favors us. It is short lived like two days but it is nice to see some potential. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Still looking kinda dry and cool. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 So raging zonal flow is delayed but not denied.That's my guess. A big Aleutian/GOA vortex (+PNA) should take over sometime during the first week of December, and when it does, most of the country will end up blowtorching. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 That's my guess. A big Aleutian/GOA vortex (+PNA) should take over sometime during the first week of December, and when it does, most of the country will end up blowtorching. This always seems to be your 2-3 week forecast. I don't remember you predicting a coolish (in some spots) and active November for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Snohomish PUD says 150,000 residences are without power and this will be one of their worst storms in history. This after the August storm broke their record for most outages ever. Hope it's not out for 3 days again like it was then.Yeah Snohomish co PUD is now saying this could be the most damage they have ever experienced in their history. Saw no PUD trucks anywhere while driving home from the lake house. I have a feeling we will be without power for a long time. Also they are also saying the Stilly could crest at record flood stage, this reminds me of Novembers when I was a kid. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 This always seems to be your 2-3 week forecast. I don't remember you predicting a coolish (in some spots) and active November for us.Well, you're wrong. I do my best to convey my thoughts and be positively engaging here, so posts like this are just a tad bit irritating. This was my last intraseasonal outlook, posted on October 11th. I haven't changed anything, and in fact I believe this forecast has verified. I think your best shot might be November this year, but a January event is also on the table, in my opinion. November looks -PNA/+WPO dominated to me, but getting polar air into the PNW requires strong NPAC wave breaking/-EPO, which is certainly not a lock. December looks like a nationwide blowtorch. January looks like a transition month, February looks to feature legitimate polar blocking, but probably will only benefit the east w/ the +PNA going. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 0z GFS looking good. Big improvement over 18z. Yes indeed. Given how much better the other models have been I expect the improving trend will continue. Jesse has to be pleased there is basically no warm weather being shown over the next 10 days at least. I know I sure am. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah Snohomish co PUD is now saying this could be the most damage they have ever experienced in their history. Saw no PUD trucks anywhere while driving home from the lake house. I have a feeling we will be without power for a long time. Also they are also saying the Stilly could crest at record flood stage, this reminds me of Novembers when I was a kid. It was obviously way worse up there than it was here. December 2006 was MUCH worse here than this event. Very interesting about the stilly. Huge flooding on that one and the Skagit seems to be the best harbingers of a coming Arctic outbreak. There must have been enough snowpack to exacerbate the flooding this time. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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