February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[umadbro]

I only saw a couple Puget sound folks panicking.

 

Don't mistake ones prediction with panic.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like freezing rain for at my location.

 

It's definitely a good sign to see 850mb temperature still below freezing over the Puget Sound right into Friday evening. With offshore flow and precipitation bands rolling through there will be a fair amount of cooling in the lower levels. So far the NAM has been the worst of the models, expecting the cold air to scour rapidly on Friday. Fortunately it's currently alone in that prediction.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wow! That's quite the turn-around.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020200/ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png

[Bryant]

Wow! That's quite the turn-around.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020200/ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png

Giveth, taketh, and giveth again... just not as nice looking as previous runs. Models know how to play with my emotions

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Game on? At least at "my location."

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020200/ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png

[HighlandExperience]

Giveth, taketh, and giveth again... just not as nice looking as previous runs. Models know how to play with my emotions

I want to see precip maps.

[Guest Sounder]

There is still enormous potential with this, as tonight's runs are showing. Brennan is not wrong by saying earlier that the overall pattern remains nearly the same, even with the worst runs of the last 24 hours. It really will not take a huge shift to nail us harder than Steve Bannon hits his wife.

[umadbro]

There is still enormous potential with this, as tonight's runs are showing. Brennan is not wrong by saying earlier that the overall pattern remains nearly the same, even with the worst runs of the last 24 hours. It really will not take a huge shift to nail us harder than Steve Bannon hits his wife.

 

You mean to tell me that the models have flipped and,flopped all year and I shouldn't take yesterday's models as gospel? No, no! No way!

[Guest Sounder]

You mean to tell me that the models have flipped and,flopped all year and I shouldn't take yesterday's models as gospel? No, no! No way!

Amazing how you completely missed my point. If Seattle ends up getting a foot out of this, yesterday's models wouldn't actually have been that wrong in regard to the overall pattern. When you ride such a razor thin margin for error like this, tiny pattern shifts make enormous local differences.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Giveth, taketh, and giveth again... just not as nice looking as previous runs. Models know how to play with my emotions

 

Calibration I guess. This is becoming quite the model rollercoaster. I'm just glad that there have been improvements with the first event on Friday, especially with many of the model runs bringing the low up closer to the shore. It could easily be the best event of our winter so far for many of us in the "screw zone"; perhaps the best event of the winter if the fun stuff that was forecast early next week doesn't come back into play. It also seems that having the initial low closer to shore reduces some of the negative tendencies to want to spit energy further offshore with the secondary low.

[crf450ish]

Where's Wizardo?

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1506-february-2017-observations-and-model-discussion-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=213331

[TT-SEA]

Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details.    But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF.    Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

 

[umadbro]

Amazing how you completely missed my point. If Seattle ends up getting a foot out of this, yesterday's models wouldn't actually have been that wrong in regard to the overall pattern. When you ride such a razor thin margin for error like this, tiny pattern shifts make enormous local differences.

I think you didn't pick up on my sarcasm. Its alright. Jesse would have just called names. At least you explained your point. I understand what you were saying.

[TT-SEA]

This is just the snowfall during the day on Super Bowl Sunday...

 

[Jesse]

I think you didn't pick up on my sarcasm. Its alright. Jesse would have just called names. At least you explained your point. I understand what you were saying.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this vendetta you seem to have against me. I'm not even sure who you are.

[HighlandExperience]

Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details. But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF. Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

 

That would be something.

[Front Ranger]

This has all the earmarks of a Whatcom County special.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details.    But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF.    Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

 

 

That's insane! That low driving up on Sunday looks like a major culprit for padding the totals.

[Jesse]

Glad to see prospects improving again up north.

[umadbro]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this vendetta you seem to have against me. I'm not even sure who you are.

I know you. Just don't worry about it. You'll quit here again before it's all done. You'll probably still move on just fine AS WELL.

[HighlandExperience]

That's insane! That low driving up on Sunday looks like a major culprit for padding the totals.

Those are hefty totals. Hope we can get some higher amounts in central Sound as well.

[snow_wizard]

This has all the earmarks of a Whatcom County special.

Maybe. Pretty likely another screw job for us though.

[HighlandExperience]

I know you. Just don't worry about it. You'll quit here again before it's all done. You'll probably still move on just fine AS WELL.

Honestly you are getting annoying in your spat with Jesse.

[van city]

Wizardo is back.

[stuffradio]

Man, King EURO looks like king GEM. Go Canadians!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

As it stands the ECMWF now looks a lot more like the GEM than the GFS with the handling of the lows on Friday and Sunday.

[HighlandExperience]

As it stands the ECMWF now looks a lot more like the GEM than the GFS with the handling of the lows on Friday and Sunday.

Don't forget the admiral

[Jesse]

Honestly you are getting annoying in your spat with Jesse.

I'm pretty perplexed. Don't know the guy from Adam and his accusations have been pretty baseless. I almost get the feeling he has me confused with someone else

[Heavy Snow]

Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details. But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF. Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon...

 

Wow you guys get clobbered up there. Even Astoria gets some snow.

[Bryant]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this vendetta you seem to have against me. I'm not even sure who you are.

Seems to be someone who had their account banned, or made a fool of themselves and made a new one

[Front Ranger]

Maybe. Pretty likely another screw job for us though.

No easy calls this winter. Something has to break your way at some point.

 

I suggest having Tim over for a Super Bowl party. Snow loves that guy.

[snow_wizard]

No easy calls this winter. Something has to break your way at some point.

 

I suggest having Tim over for a Super Bowl party. Snow loves that guy.

I have simply given up.

[Heavy Snow]

Man, King EURO looks like king GEM. Go Canadians!

How much snow have you guys had so far up there in YVR Metro? If the 00z EURO verifies you could be looking at some huge totals so far this winter.

[TT-SEA]

No easy calls this winter. Something has to break your way at some point.

 

I suggest having Tim over for a Super Bowl party. Snow loves that guy.

 

[luminen]

How much snow have you guys had so far up there in YVR Metro? If the 00z EURO verifies you could be looking at some huge totals so far this winter.

 

I don't know what the totals are but Burnaby and central Vancouver will likely get hit the hardest, as usual. Hopefully it doesn't rain too much...

[ShawniganLake]

How much snow have you guys had so far up there in YVR Metro? If the 00z EURO verifies you could be looking at some huge totals so far this winter.

Its a pretty varied terrain in Greater Vancouver.  Near sea level as little as 6-8".  Higher elevations have probably seen 30" and more. 

[Jesse]

Afternoon high of 28 at The Dalles today.

 

Meanwhile PDX has yet to hit freezing. Hopefully the downslope element of this event pulls back soon.

[stuffradio]

How much snow have you guys had so far up there in YVR Metro? If the 00z EURO verifies you could be looking at some huge totals so far this winter.

It varies by quite a bit, but for me maybe at least 1.5 feet so far.

[Dave]

Getting some 33 degree sprinkles here.  Just what I've always wanted.

[BLI snowman]

Getting some 33 degree sprinkles here.  Just what I've always wanted.

 

That's a tasty fork.