October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

I was looking at that... Sitting just north of the cities, so might be in for quite the night if that pans out.

Edit: Current trends seem to be setting up that way with this initial band.

Dark as night out there right now. Street lights were on at 3:30. Northern metro gonna get soaked.

[bud2380]

It was mentioned above that the weather.us site has free 3-hr Euro maps.  Ryan Maue, the guy responsible for creating the great weatherbell maps, recently left weatherbell to become the COO of weather.us.

Thanks for providing this info.  I had not heard of it previously.  Pretty sweet resource.  

[St Paul Storm]

Some of the most vivid lightning of the year, on October 2. Gotta love it.

[jaster220]

This can be a theme all winter - you laughing while I stack flakes. :-P

[St Paul Storm]

Storms seem to be a bit farther east than modeled so far. The initial line moved east and that could impact where the remainder of the rain lines up overnight.

[Tom]

It's a gorgeous evening out there today. I have the windows open, nice southerly breeze, the moon peaking through high clouds...almost summer like with temps in the upper 70's.

[clintbeed1993]

Man, my area is getting rocked.  This is the 2nd day in a row with some big boomers.  Lock this pattern in for the winter and I'll be a happy camper.

[jaster220]

 

 

Been a string of warm Oct's. We're kinda due for a break.

[jaster220]

SOI showing signs of volatility going into the month. Maybe those in the know can comment on potential impacts?

 

 

[jaster220]

Nice to see the EURO with some real moisture over my way..

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

1.6” of rain so far. My gutters couldn’t handle the monsoon and now I have water in my garage. Awesome. Now it appears another 3-5” may fall in spots. Storms to the SW are reorganizing. Gonna be a long night.

[Niko]

I love early snows! Gets me amped.

I prefer just snowshowers or flurries in October and even snowsqualls to whiten up the ground a bit b4 it all melts away.

[Niko]

Looks like I might be looking at quite a bit of moisture by weeks end?!

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening out there. Temps are in the 50s under moonlit skies and calm winds. Cant get any better than this!

[clintbeed1993]

Grand Island set an October daily rainfall record with over 3 inches.

[OKwx2k4]

You nailed it!

 

Heck, whilst others on my street are busy putting up Holloweenie decorations, I'm thinking about at least hanging my Christmas lights (not lighting them, lol). Normally wait til right after T-day, but in 2011 we had that heavy snowstorm on the 29th and I had to move snow to put out my decorations. It's rare here, but I remember the added risk of roof level work when there's snow and ice everywhere - not good. If the truth were known, me and ladders don't get along too well as it is

Yeah. That would be pretty rough. Thinking my winter 2000-01, 08-09, 10-11 blend is looking really decent right now. I'm getting pretty excited about the possibility of a white Thanksgiving this year this far south. I think a REAL winter is coming. Been a long time.

[OKwx2k4]

Nice to see the EURO with some real moisture over my way..

 

DLKAb5WWAAATKv_.jpg

Yes! Rain!! Look at that precip pattern. Gonna be an awesome winter buddy!

[Tom]

00z Euro has a band of 3-5" of precip from KS/N MO/IL over the next 7 days...

 

[jaster220]

00z Euro has a band of 3-5" of precip from KS/N MO/IL over the next 7 days...

 

 

I'll be fine with my 2-ish total, no need to make it all up at once - no bueno 

[Tom]

Another summer-like morning here in Chitown with temps approaching 70F and DP's holding in the upper 50's providing a touch of humidity in the air.  Looking forward to an active mid/late week with several rounds of storms and if the models are right, we could have some severe weather to deal with Fri night and again early the following week along a strong cold front.  The new pattern evolving is a breath of fresh air if you ask me.  It's been so dang boring around these parts and I'm excited to see the models painting some juicy precip totals where we need it most.

 

00z GFS next 5 days...

 

[Niko]

Beautiful outside, with lots of sunshine and mild..temps in the 60s and climbing well into the 70s.

[Niko]

Looks like T'stms will be visiting my area tomorrow, but, nothing severe. Temps in the 70s still remain in the forecast with a few 60s for highs on and off.

[Andrew NE]

Does anyone know if this current storm system coming (thurs - friday) this week is actually part of the current LRC?

[Tom]

Does anyone know if this current storm system coming (thurs - friday) this week is actually part of the current LRC?

My best guess is the stationary frontal boundary setting up mid week is part of the old and the new LRC.  However, the short wave that comes out of CO and cuts up towards the Lakes is likely the first storm of the new LRC pattern.  I'm waiting to see if Gary comments on this pattern but he usually takes his time studying the pattern so I'm assuming we will hear something later this week.

[Stormgeek]

Man, I am not sure it is going to ever stop raining here. The rain gauge was reading around 6 inches as of 6 this morning and it is still lightly raining.

[Tom]

Both GFS/EURO indicating a cross polar flow pattern across N.A. by the middle of October.  The clues I'm seeing across the Stratosphere are becoming clearer and louder.  Look out for the potential of another big trough during this period targeting the central Plains/Midwest regions per the location of the trough in East Asia ala the 00z GEFS.  There should be another SE ridge with this type of 500mb pattern.  I think the first flakes may fly for some of those northern cities so might be a clue to those who are participating in the "First Flake" contest.

 

 

[Niko]

Man, I am not sure it is going to ever stop raining here. The rain gauge was reading around 6 inches as of 6 this morning and it is still lightly raining.

Man, I can use some rainfall. What is your location??!!

[bud2380]

NAM & GFS are showing 3-5" for my area Thursday through Friday.  WPC also has some good precip amounts.  

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1507039014

[Minny_Weather]

As is the ritual, the cold front is pushing through here ahead of schedule. LNK airport is recording NW wind, but I live on the opposite side of town and I have wind coming thru my South facing window (I have windows facing South, West, and North which is awesome). First day of classes today, and I may need a light sweatshirt for my night class.

 

Edit. Now it is going thru my West facing window. Adios to 80 degree temps for a while.

[NEJeremy]

Looks to be real wet here Thursday and Friday. Gonna have to mow the lawn again and lately it's been once per week.

 

Wednesday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Light east northeast wind. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms. High near 69. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms. High near 69. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

[Niko]

Just heard on the radio that my temps could be reaching 80F today, if not slightly higher. By no means, any records to be broken, but still hanging on to a little warmth here in SEMI.

[Niko]

 

Looks to be real wet here Thursday and Friday. Gonna have to mow the lawn again and lately it's been once per week.

 

Wednesday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Light east northeast wind. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms. High near 69. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms. High near 69. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

 

Nice forecast. Cant remember when I saw a forecast like that in MBY.

[Niko]

Was just outside talking with a neighbor and we started talking about this upcoming Winter. I asked him what are his thoughts are and he replied back that he might need more than 2 shovels. Anyways, feels wonderful outside. What a glorious day to be outside doing yard work, or some Autumn cleaning.

[Niko]

Current Freeze and Frost advisories along with other watches and warnings:

 

http://www.weather.gov/

[FV-Mike]

NAM & GFS are showing 3-5" for my area Thursday through Friday.  WPC also has some good precip amounts.  

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1507039014

 

I am driving to Des Moines on Friday. I-80 looks to be wet the whole way

[Tom]

Last 4 runs of the GFS showing flooding potential across the Midwest...lines up with the map Bud posted above...

 

 

[Andrew NE]

My best guess is the stationary frontal boundary setting up mid week is part of the old and the new LRC.  However, the short wave that comes out of CO and cuts up towards the Lakes is likely the first storm of the new LRC pattern.  I'm waiting to see if Gary comments on this pattern but he usually takes his time studying the pattern so I'm assuming we will hear something later this week.

Thanks for the insight Tom, that was pretty much my understanding as well. Lets hope this pattern continues to deliver!

[Niko]

I am driving to Des Moines on Friday. I-80 looks to be wet the whole way

That's a lot of moisture. Hope my area can get into some of that purple and red shaded colors.

[jaster220]

Just heard on the radio that my temps could be reaching 80F today, if not slightly higher. By no means, any records to be broken, but still hanging on to a little warmth here in SEMI.

 

GRR had the same for Marshall, but it's only 70 so far, and only 68 here in St. Joseph with a thickening cloud deck. I doubt those highs are reached over this way in SWMI. This whole "2nd heatwave" scenario painted by a few model runs has really crashed-n-burned if you ask me. 

 

I mean, we're used to seeing this happen with promising cold waves and snowstorms, but this may be the only time I remember a touted "heatwave" fizzling out..

[jaster220]

Last 4 runs of the GFS showing flooding potential across the Midwest...lines up with the map Bud posted above...

 

Well, you know what they say 'bout how a drought ends...with a flood