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1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

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#51
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:39 PM

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Gotta say though, the GFS has been more consistent. Less flip flopping. We shall see in the coming day. 


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#52
Tabitha

Posted 15 January 2018 - 11:45 PM

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Gotta say though, the GFS has been more consistent.

 

No doubt about it...it has been wrong every time.



#53
Tom

Posted 16 January 2018 - 04:10 AM

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00z EPS/Control continue to like C NE up into MSP....



#54
bud2380

Posted 16 January 2018 - 04:27 AM

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Euro with another big shift NW. 6z a big shift NW. and model mayhem has begun.

#55
Tom

Posted 16 January 2018 - 04:28 AM

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06z GEFS took a big step towards the EPS...hard cutter folks...

 

 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_25.png



#56
centralweather44

Posted 16 January 2018 - 04:49 AM

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My feeling is even if we do see moisture during the day on Sunday that some or most of it will fall as a mix or as rain. Temp profiles seem to be trending up ( even 2 degrees in the last 24 hours). Just not liking the trends and or being that close to a mixed Senario here in southeast Nebraska.

#57
GDR

Posted 16 January 2018 - 05:24 AM

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Looks like a dud in the making

#58
Clinton

Posted 16 January 2018 - 05:31 AM

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This won't be a dud eastern half of Neb and the NW half of Iowa should get blasted by this system based on the LRC.



#59
james1976

Posted 16 January 2018 - 05:32 AM

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Goin NW.....maybe it will come back SE. We've seen that this year too. 5 days out yet.

#60
Tom

Posted 16 January 2018 - 05:33 AM

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Looks like a dud in the making

Reasoning?



#61
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 05:34 AM

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No doubt about it...it has been wrong every time.

Kudos on the call and the sound reasoning



#62
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 05:40 AM

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Still plenty of the time for the storm to weaken, strengthen, change track, magically crap out, etc. Don't get worked up over it yet.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#63
jaster220

Posted 16 January 2018 - 06:33 AM

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Be so kind as to not spin a false narrative of the colloquy in order to veil the fact that you did not prevail...

 

Now that gave me a chuckle


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#64
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 06:48 AM

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Just looked at the Euro. I'm not gonna worry one bit. 5 days is plenty of time for a South trend.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#65
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 07:29 AM

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Local forecasts have a blanket 50-70% chance of snow Saturday night through Sunday night.  Obviously way to early for specifics.


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#66
Andrew NE

Posted 16 January 2018 - 07:33 AM

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I don't really agree with grids for Omaha showing snow likely since yesterday still 6-7 days out, it just seems unnecessary with how previous storms have played out so far, but what do I know😃

#67
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:03 AM

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ICON

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png


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#68
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:05 AM

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GFS has slowed down the system a bit



#69
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:07 AM

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Yeah 12z GFS slowing it down and wrapping it up again.

#70
hlcater

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:08 AM

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Is the icon any good? I've gotten the impression that it probably isn't. How does dies it stack up to the GFS, Euro and CMC

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#71
GDR

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:09 AM

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Looks like storms in iowa

#72
GDR

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:10 AM

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Reasoning?

. Snow wise in my area

#73
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:10 AM

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Is the icon any good? I've gotten the impression that it probably isn't. How does dies it stack up to the GFS, Euro and CMC

My impression is the same as yours.  Although my impression of the CMC is the same.



#74
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:17 AM

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Yeah 12z GFS slowing it down and wrapping it up again.

st paul weenie run!!!



#75
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:23 AM

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st paul weenie run!!!


You do just as well down there. I’m not liking the trend of nasty gradients on the north and south side of the swath.

#76
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:24 AM

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Attached File  Snow Jan. 22.png   290.98KB   1 downloads

12Z GFS nice Nebraska run.  I would take this.  With wind that would be a nice storm.  



#77
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:24 AM

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You do just as well down there. I’m not liking the trend of nasty gradients on the north and south side of the swath.

Rarely does it not pan out that way.



#78
james1976

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:25 AM

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Oh that blows. Anything to block it?

#79
Clinton

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:27 AM

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I think the ICON may be on to something, I think it will be a touch further east though.  If only this system could dig a little harder I could join in on this fun.



#80
indianajohn

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:42 AM

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Still days away but not looking so hot for Chicago and NWI peeps!!!



#81
Money

Posted 16 January 2018 - 08:44 AM

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Ukie looks a but south from last night

#82
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:04 AM

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The Canuck is relatively toasty....

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png



#83
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:09 AM

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gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png



#84
hlcater

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:17 AM

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gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png


Tons of very strong members in there, if true, this thing is going northwest and nothing can stop it.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#85
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Tons of very strong members in there, if true, this thing is going northwest and nothing can stop it.

Right.  I think I am gonna get liquid here at this point



#86
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:22 AM

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I'll give it till 12z tomorrow to come back South. If it's still trends North, I'm punting. Soon it'll go so far North that no South trends will bring it here.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#87
jaster220

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:26 AM

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The Canuck is relatively toasty....

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

 

 

Tons of very strong members in there, if true, this thing is going northwest and nothing can stop it.

 

LOL, so much for the "seasonally adjusted Jet Stream theory"..GEM looks like a carbon copy of Dec 4-6 N MN special


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#88
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:32 AM

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LOL, so much for the "seasonally adjusted Jet Stream theory"..GEM looks like a carbon copy of Dec 4-6 N MN special

And this storm will only work on moving the baroclinic zone to the north



#89
BLIZZARD09

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:33 AM

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these are the tracks storms normally take in November ,not mid January!



#90
james1976

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:35 AM

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Gotta love it when the low is in your backyard.

#91
jaster220

Posted 16 January 2018 - 09:39 AM

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And this storm will only work on moving the baroclinic zone to the north

 

these are the tracks storms normally take in November ,not mid January!

 

But...  "On an interesting note, Paducah KY received 7.1" of snow this week, (including 5PM climate report today) almost as much as their annual average of 9.1"


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#92
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:10 AM

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I think everyone needsvto stop freaking out lol. Its 6 days out and 12z gefs mean moved south as opposed to 6z.

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#93
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:12 AM

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I think everyone needsvto stop freaking out lol. Its 6 days out and 12z gefs mean moved south as opposed to 6z.


Nobody's really freaking out. Just commenting based on what we're seeing.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#94
hlcater

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:17 AM

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Nobody's really freaking out. Just commenting based on what we're seeing.


It's also not like what everyone is saying is false. Many of these observations are straight true when it comes to a strong system.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#95
gosaints

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:22 AM

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I think everyone needsvto stop freaking out lol. Its 6 days out and 12z gefs mean moved south as opposed to 6z.

Freaking out? What post represents freaking out?  Deep down you are probably the one that is truly freaking out 


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#96
bud2380

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:28 AM

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Euro heads directly into the Iowa SLP magnet.

#97
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Euro low at 120 hours in Southwest Kansas, low at 144 hours in Northwest Missouri.  Typically a very good path for Central Nebraska.  Will be interesting to see the precipitation.


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#98
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Euro is slower with the SLP. Think it'll still show a snow miss for us here. Maybe some sloppy backside action.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#99
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Attached File  wind Jan. 22.png   219.4KB   0 downloads

Wind at 144 hours over Central Nebraska is very impressive.  



#100
Tabitha

Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:33 AM

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European looking good for the Black Hills of western South Dakota..