Jump to content

December 2018 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

Recommended Posts

From the DVN discussion...

 

T'was the week before Christmas and all through the extended not a

model was stirring, not even the MOS.
  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FV3 GFS now showing a wave coming through on Sunday. Hard to keep track of all the moving parts and models. Good news, we are home for Christmas break and can enjoy the weather. Traveling might get nasty next week.

Exactly why I'm watching like a hawk. Wife is upset because the plans might change but I don't want any part of being on the roads if the rain snow line shifts or changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cedar Rapids hit 50 again today, the fourth time in the last week.  It has certainly been boring, but if it's not going to snow it may as well be this nice.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Overcast all day, in the 50's, heavy fog till afternoon, then lighter, misting all day.

 

This is exactly the weather we had in 2009 when we had so much snow in Jan. And Feb.

 

Will see what the snow gods have in mind.

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exactly why I'm watching like a hawk. Wife is upset because the plans might change but I don't want any part of being on the roads if the rain snow line shifts or changes.

Correct. We have relatives coming here but they will leave Sunday. Huge travel after Christmas could be affected. Let’s see what happens but I am like you, I hate to travel on busy roads when weather could be an issue.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct. We have relatives coming here but they will leave Sunday. Huge travel after Christmas could be affected. Let’s see what happens but I am like you, I hate to travel on busy roads when weather could be an issue.

Yup plus I have done enough Christmas drives across Iowa during winter events to know I want no part of it if I can avoid it. Sadly cutting the trip down to the 26th just to beat it. Now if the euro and nam keep this storm rain I'll stick to our original plans but the fv3 has been very consistent on this. Enough to keep my attention.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really hope this can come down as snow around the IL WI border. A lot of the resorts here could really use a good holiday. Two years ago they weren't even really open, and last year was pretty bad too. This is their prime time, rain now would really hurt them. Even if they have snow on the hills and are open, no one comes out if it's rained.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exactly why I'm watching like a hawk. Wife is upset because the plans might change but I don't want any part of being on the roads if the rain snow line shifts or changes.

 

Must. keep. wife. happy..especially at Christmas

 

I'm kinda opposite. I'll camouflage chasing a weekend snowstorm hitting NMI as "a get-away weekend". But when we can't see the road due to whiteouts, I will be told to "get away from me!". Sometimes been worth it, sometimes nasso much. One must choose wisely Grasshopper..

  • Like 4

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS seems more east with the low in California. This could be good, who knows. Time will tell.

I haven’t looked so I’m not sure if it’s faster overall, but the GFS tends to be, especially in stronger surface lows. Just something to watch.

  • Like 1

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EURO took out that system completely for Christmas day AND made a HUGE jump north for Thursdays system as well. Even most of our Minnesota posters miss out and get rain lol. D**n. Its like the grinch stole christmas!

  • Like 2

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep--. Even the Kuchera amounts for the Twin Cities are in the 4-8"+ range. The snow shield on this appears to much closer to the "L" that what is typical-- How close will likely be determined in part by if the system is occluding or strengthening. Soo much time to go that if you look at every model run 4 times a day your going to go nuts a week out.

  • Like 3

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After a cold and some what snowy November much of the southern great lakes area is in a major snow fall drought for December.  It is now December 20th and here are some TOTAL snow fall totals from around Michigan

Grand Rapids 1.9”….Muskegon 1.8”….Lansing 0.3”….Detroit 0.1”….Flint 1.0”….Saginaw 0.2”….Alpena 2.5”….Sault Ste Marie 10.5”….Marquette 21.0

In states to the near west and south it in not any better. Milwaukee 0.2….Madison WI 1.0”….Chicago 0.3”….Rockford IL 0.5” Fort Wayne 0.1”….South Bend 0.7”….Toledo 0.1” Here at Grand Rapids we are still on track for a top ten least snowy Decembers on record.

At this time it looks to be an area wide green/brown Christmas there is a slight chance of snow lake snows here in Michigan late Sunday into Monday but don’t look for much if any.°At this time it is cloudy and a mild 41.5° here at my house.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Hastings disco this morning is basically saying it will be all rain, no cold air for the system, and don't believe what you are hearing or seeing about a big storm.  Very condescending.  They seem to not want you to look at social media for ideas about storminess for next week.  They may be 100% correct.  However, I have seen them in past events say to not believe weather blogs, or I would guess, sites like this.  It is not like NWS Hastings hasn't missed bigly on past storms both ways. 

 

What is even more odd, on their Twitter page they ask the question if a big storm is on the way and they will have no way of knowing snow amounts for another 2-3 days.  What?  I typically think they are a good NWS office compared to what some of the posters on here share about their office. 

 

Sorry about the rant, but I like to see many different points of view about weather, not just what my local NWS office says.  Ok, back to Christmas preparation.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS Hastings disco this morning is basically saying it will be all rain, no cold air for the system, and don't believe what you are hearing or seeing about a big storm. Very condescending. They seem to not want you to look at social media for ideas about storminess for next week. They may be 100% correct. However, I have seen them in past events say to not believe weather blogs, or I would guess, sites like this. It is not like NWS Hastings hasn't missed bigly on past storms both ways.

 

What is even more odd, on their Twitter page they ask the question if a big storm is on the way and they will have no way of knowing snow amounts for another 2-3 days. What? I typically think they are a good NWS office compared to what some of the posters on here share about their office.

 

Sorry about the rant, but I like to see many different points of view about weather, not just what my local NWS office says. Ok, back to Christmas preparation.

That's rather ignorant of them after one run. I'm all for anti-hype, but only if there is near 100% certainty. This is still seven days out and every model run before the 00Z suite had the cutoff in Nebraska.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's about 120 hours out from coming ashore! Think about the cone of uncertainty that the NHC uses. Think how large the spread is at 120 hours!  How anyone knows either way what this is going to do this far out is not dealing with a full deck. It goes with the cliche in the weather field - "Potential" winter event- but at this range that is all it really CAN be.

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's rather ignorant of them after one run. I'm all for anti-hype, but only if there is near 100% certainty. This is still seven days out and every model run before the 00Z suite had the cutoff in Nebraska.

That is what I thought. You would think they would talk up some potential if for nothing else the amount of travelers on the road. Instead should be all rain with no cold air anyplace. I guess we’ll see how it all plays out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is what I thought. You would think they would talk up some potential if for nothing else the amount of travelers on the road. Instead should be all rain with no cold air anyplace. I guess we’ll see how it all plays out.

And they may end up being right about this, but it is not a WFO's responsibility to call off a potential up-in-the-air storm as just rain seven days out.

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fv3 went south again lol. Anywho OAX did the same thing last storm saying don't look at other sites and social media. If I recall they were wrong on the storm. It gets annoying that they are telling others only they have the correct information like some God and looking to others is a sin. Why are they afraid of people being aware? So far the winter storms this year have not followed their forecast at all. I still don't know if this going to be to warm. I would rather be cautious now instead of stuck on road while all hell is breaking lose.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 7441

      Polite Politics

    2. 742

      Middle East Conflict of 2023-2024

    3. 7441

      Polite Politics

    4. 7441

      Polite Politics

×
×
  • Create New...