January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Cloudy skies here in SEMI and temps in the 20s. A little brief warm-up next week (upper 30s) b4 arctic air invades next weekend. As for any snowstorms IMBY, way to early to be seeing models at this point that far out, unless you are a model hugger.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro went way South with next weekend's storm, the low now digs all the way down into Texas & Louisiana, bringing significant snow to Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Virginia. 

[gimmesnow]

Cool, it's like winter just jumped over S Wisconsin and Chicago.

[Niko]

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

Looks like snow is getting closer to YBY buddy. I can see you getting maybe a couple of inches.

 

Btw: Extended looks stormy and frigid. It is always excited to see subtle elements that possibly come together and keep an eye on for potential storminess.

 

Ha! Thx Niko, but more likely 1/2"???

 

 

Nice loop and thx for posting. Been busy with chores today. I posted last night that ol Mr. Fujiwara treated The Mitt to our first snowstorm on Nov 9-10 and may be stopping by again. Prolly our best shot at a storm in this otherwise dull stretch. Here's to hoping buddy! No fair you can just bop over to NYC and catch their action too, lol

[jaster220]

Cool, it's like winter just jumped over S Wisconsin and Chicago.

 

Chicago's getting snow. You're on your own island now. S Wisconsin is the Zone of Screws lately

[gabel23]

Congrats to all who got snow out of this system; this was one of the few times that I got shafted. Usually I luck out when I'm on the edge but not this time. Good write up by Hastings today about the pattern change coming up. If we don't get snow out of this next system then it looks like its gonna be a nice, brutal cold stretch with brown grass in my area according to Hastings. 

 

The ensemble means (GEM/GFS/EC) have been hinting at a
retrogression of the longwaves and they are locked on it now. By
the 10-15 day timeframe...they are all fcstg the mean ridge to be
just off the W coast...with the mean trof over the MS Vly. This is
a signal for Arctic air to dominate here. This is typically not a
snowy pattern of NEB/KS...but it is a windy/very cold one. So
brace yourselves. We are heading into the heart of winter and
it`s going to feel like it.

[CentralNebWeather]

Congrats to all who got snow out of this system; this was one of the few times that I got shafted. Usually I luck out when I'm on the edge but not this time. Good write up by Hastings today about the pattern change coming up. If we don't get snow out of this next system then it looks like its gonna be a nice, brutal cold stretch with brown grass in my area according to Hastings.

 

The ensemble means (GEM/GFS/EC) have been hinting at a

retrogression of the longwaves and they are locked on it now. By

the 10-15 day timeframe...they are all fcstg the mean ridge to be

just off the W coast...with the mean trof over the MS Vly. This is

a signal for Arctic air to dominate here. This is typically not a

snowy pattern of NEB/KS...but it is a windy/very cold one. So

brace yourselves. We are heading into the heart of winter and

it`s going to feel like it.

Yea I read that and and thought we have seen this movie before. Brutal cold with no snow cover is the worst. In town we still have some drifts and piles and snow cover on the north side of houses. Need this next system to lay down a snow cover.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro poo-poos basically anything good up here. Warm anomalies & next weekend's storm digs way South. GFS disagrees.

[Niko]

Ha! Thx Niko, but more likely 1/2"???

 

 

Nice loop and thx for posting. Been busy with chores today. I posted last night that ol Mr. Fujiwara treated The Mitt to our first snowstorm on Nov 9-10 and may be stopping by again. Prolly our best shot at a storm in this otherwise dull stretch. Here's to hoping buddy! No fair you can just bop over to NYC and catch their action too, lol

[Madtown]

[Niko]

I think next weekends storm everyone needs to watch it. If we have an east based -NAO and hopefully, the PNA does not go too +, then, that screams a "Big Dog." GFS is a triple phase, but not even looking at it at this point. Way too far out and also, it is a model, which cannot be trusted from this point. The extended looks darn stormy. My local weatherman just said that a big dog is coming soon for someone as all the ingredients up north will be available. We will see. Fun times ahead.

[Andie]

We're at 43*, however, it's damp, and overcast. Generally boring and unpleasant.

 

Received .50" slow rain yesterday. What's new? Wet winter.

[Clinton]

Euro went way South with next weekend's storm, the low now digs all the way down into Texas & Louisiana, bringing significant snow to Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Virginia. 

I think you will get in on this storm. In the last cycle it was north through Nebraska and Iowa, it will be further south this time but not that far south.  I expect I will be on the southern edge.

[Minny_Weather]

I think you will get in on this storm. In the last cycle it was north through Nebraska and Iowa, it will be further south this time but not that far south.  I expect I will be on the southern edge.

I'm indifferent about it. I'll be in Fargo this upcoming weekend so if it snows it snows and if it doesn't it doesn't.

[Tom]

I think you will get in on this storm. In the last cycle it was north through Nebraska and Iowa, it will be further south this time but not that far south.  I expect I will be on the southern edge.

I agree, the Euro op run today was much to suppressed as I'm anticipating another "share the wealth" system across the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  We have good blocking in place and arctic air feeding into this potential system.  You ready to track another nice winter storm???

[james1976]

00z GFS was another crazy run. Lot of storminess and cold air.

[jaster220]

I think you will get in on this storm. In the last cycle it was north through Nebraska and Iowa, it will be further south this time but not that far south.  I expect I will be on the southern edge.

 

I agree, the Euro op run today was much to suppressed as I'm anticipating another "share the wealth" system across the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  We have good blocking in place and arctic air feeding into this potential system.  You ready to track another nice winter storm???

 

Double posting but yeah, EPS members were 2 states north with the SLP (W TN) I'm pumped just at the thought of not being fringed!

[jaster220]

00z GFS was another crazy run. Lot of storminess and cold air.

 

Sure was but I'd take that 12z scenario for the E Lakes lol

[Tom]

Good morning all, hope many of you are waking up this morning with smiles on your faces as we enjoyed a much needed winter storm.  This system marks the beginning, not the end, of what I believe will be an action packed, storm and cold driven, wild and ferocious finish to the month of January.  Will it tip the scale and sit next to some of the legendary January's in history???  How many winter storms are on the table through the rest of this month???  Is there a potential Blockbuster setup later this month???  Earlier this month, you may have thought I was crazy enough to think this pattern is heading towards the Extreme that I had a vision of even before this Autumn began.  However, once I saw the entire LRC develop towards the end of November, my feelings grew stronger and bolder.

 

Ladies and Gents, it's time to sharpen up our focus and get ready for another week of tracking what I'm expecting to be a wound up winter storm traversing the heartland yet again.  All the global models are in a general agreement that a strong piece of energy will eject out of the central Rockies and develop into a relatively strong SLP somewhere near the TX Panhandle region across the C Plains and carry on a west/east track.  Could it be another "share the wealth"???  Tis' the season, esp when we are seeing favorable teleconnections lining up...are you ready???

 

Last night's 00z Euro came back north and not nearly as suppressed of a storm track it was advertising for a couple of runs.  The model tends to overreact to blocking in the long range and we don't have a deeply (-) EPO that would entail a suppressed storm track...yet...but that may change as the month progresses and those farther south may begin to see the wintry side of things.  In any event, here was the 00z Euro snowfall and 00z EPS snow mean.  If trends continue today, I may fire up a storm thread as my confidence that this system develops is very high.

 

 

[Tom]

00z GEFS snow depth change for next week....#Jan'19Glacier

 

[VMB443]

This from Milwaukee - story of the winter so far.

 

[Clinton]

I agree, the Euro op run today was much to suppressed as I'm anticipating another "share the wealth" system across the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  We have good blocking in place and arctic air feeding into this potential system.  You ready to track another nice winter storm???

Its gonna be fun bud, the 00z FV3 lines up well with what I am thinking,

[SE Wisconsin]

Looks as though everyone in the I-80 corridor and south is going to fare well in the next few weeks.  Here in SE WI it seems as though when we get a big storm coming through it tracks far enough north and west that we get all rain.  Then when it is cold enough for snow all the storms are suppressed to our south, just like yesterday.  From December 1st MKE has recorded less than 2" of snow.  Just a weird pattern we're stuck in this winter.  Hoping we can eek out some lake effect with the system next weekend.

[jaster220]

This from Milwaukee - story of the winter so far.

 

3225A3D2-250D-4C41-9F5A-C51D1965764E.png

 

 

Per NWS Milwaukee:

 

SNOWFALL (IN)

YESTERDAY 0.0 16.0 1908 0.5 -0.5 T

MONTH TO DATE 0.2 5.7 -5.5 0.1

SINCE DEC 1 1.7 16.3 -14.6 4.7

SINCE JUL 1 8.3 19.0 -10.7 4.9

SNOW DEPTH 0

 

 

They're down less than 11" on the season. Could be made up with one single storm. I get the sentiment tho. Need a good storm over there!

[jaster220]

Good morning all, hope many of you are waking up this morning with smiles on your faces as we enjoyed a much needed winter storm.  This system marks the beginning, not the end, of what I believe will be an action packed, storm and cold driven, wild and ferocious finish to the month of January.  Will it tip the scale and sit next to some of the legendary January's in history???  How many winter storms are on the table through the rest of this month???  Is there a potential Blockbuster setup later this month???  Earlier this month, you may have thought I was crazy enough to think this pattern is heading towards the Extreme that I had a vision of even before this Autumn began.  However, once I saw the entire LRC develop towards the end of November, my feelings grew stronger and bolder.

 

Ladies and Gents, it's time to sharpen up our focus and get ready for another week of tracking what I'm expecting to be a wound up winter storm traversing the heartland yet again.  All the global models are in a general agreement that a strong piece of energy will eject out of the central Rockies and develop into a relatively strong SLP somewhere near the TX Panhandle region across the C Plains and carry on a west/east track.  Could it be another "share the wealth"???  Tis' the season, esp when we are seeing favorable teleconnections lining up...are you ready???

 

Last night's 00z Euro came back north and not nearly as suppressed of a storm track it was advertising for a couple of runs.  The model tends to overreact to blocking in the long range and we don't have a deeply (-) EPO that would entail a suppressed storm track...yet...but that may change as the month progresses and those farther south may begin to see the wintry side of things.  In any event, here was the 00z Euro snowfall and 00z EPS snow mean.  If trends continue today, I may fire up a storm thread as my confidence that this system develops is very high.

 

So many things I could post but let me just say this. It's great to be at least included in the decent snow swath this go-around which was never the case with this weekend's storm. Makes it 10X more enjoyable. My other thought is that  this wave looks more robust at this range than yesterday's system which actually had a much larger region of 6+ than I thought it would originally. Could this grow into an even bigger dog??

[jaster220]

As a follow-up to above post.

 

Here's the GFS from 5-days out for yesterday:

 

 

 

Which ended up being this and 20" jack-zone with huge region of 6-12+ amts:

 

 

 

Vs. portrayals of next weekend's system already looking stronger further out in time:

 

 

 

 

Giddy-up!

[westMJim]

Yesterdays snow event missed west Michigan to the south. Much of Iowa, Illinois, Ohio and here in Michigan south of I 94 received snow yesterday. Here at Grand Rapids we are now -26.1" in the snow fall department since December 1 and are now -19.7" for the season. Gaylord is now -23.6" below the seasonal snow fall and at Traverse City they are at -26.3" for the season. Here at Grand Rapids the January mean is now at 31.7° and that is good for a departure of +6.9°.  33 of the last 34 days have been warmer then average and 34 of the last 43 have been warmer then average. This has been one long stretch of mild snow free days.At this time I have clear skies with a temperature of 23.0" and of course no snow on the ground not even a trace and yes the date is January 13

[Minny_Weather]

All 6.5" still on the ground here. Good thing is that because it is concrete, the snowpack should be able to survive the two 40*F days coming up tomorrow and Tuesday. Right now, cloudy and a few flurries. Looking forward to experiencing -40*F wind chills in Fargo next weekend. 27.9*F.

[Niko]

As a follow-up to above post.

 

Here's the GFS from 5-days out for yesterday:

 

20190107 GFS Snow-cast for 12-Jan.jpg

 

 

Which ended up being this and 20" jack-zone with huge region of 6-12+ amts:

 

20190112 Intellicast 20z radar.GIF

 

 

Vs. portrayals of next weekend's system already looking stronger further out in time:

 

20190113 0z Euro Snowfall.PNG

 

 

 

Giddy-up!

[Niko]

Currently 21F w partly cloudy skies.

 

 

Some crazy weather coming our way later next week. Looks like the December/January thaw will finally end.

[jaster220]

Ofc, some of the chatta is about the coming cold blast and here's a FV3 cold-bomb for ya. Clearly you can see how sheltered The Mitt is from cold invasions thus why we have a difficult time getting early season big snows.

 

 

And here's a another color scheme rant. Look at the nearly identical color shadings above and below 0F. How the heck am I supposed to read which side of zero I'm on??

[St Paul Storm]

Latest first subzero temp on record at MSP is January 18. Based on the latest model runs we should break that record. We’ve officially received only a trace of snow so far this month, and it’s a decent possibility we could end the month with just a trace. I’m glad last winter was wild, because this winter is a complete dud.

 

I drove to Duluth yesterday and it’s like another world up there. Tons of snow, looks and feels like winter. . There’s no snow OTG until you get about 40 mi north of the metro.

[Niko]

Ofc, some of the chatta is about the coming cold blast and here's a FV3 cold-bomb for ya. Clearly you can see how sheltered The Mitt is from cold invasions thus why we have a difficult time getting early season big snows.

 

fv3p_T2m_us_58.png

 

And here's a another color scheme rant. Look at the nearly identical color shadings above and below 0F. How the heck am I supposed to read which side of zero I'm on??

My guess would be -.

[jaster220]

My guess would be -.

 

precisely my point - ty Niko!

[Niko]

precisely my point - ty Niko!

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS, Canadian, and now the ICON(had been weak and suppressed) are great next weekend.... strong, windy, cold, lots of snow.  FV3 has a similar track, but more like a moderate clipper.

[jaster220]

Good morning all, hope many of you are waking up this morning with smiles on your faces as we enjoyed a much needed winter storm.  This system marks the beginning, not the end, of what I believe will be an action packed, storm and cold driven, wild and ferocious finish to the month of January.  Will it tip the scale and sit next to some of the legendary January's in history???  How many winter storms are on the table through the rest of this month???  Is there a potential Blockbuster setup later this month???  Earlier this month, you may have thought I was crazy enough to think this pattern is heading towards the Extreme that I had a vision of even before this Autumn began.  However, once I saw the entire LRC develop towards the end of November, my feelings grew stronger and bolder.

 

Ladies and Gents, it's time to sharpen up our focus and get ready for another week of tracking what I'm expecting to be a wound up winter storm traversing the heartland yet again.  All the global models are in a general agreement that a strong piece of energy will eject out of the central Rockies and develop into a relatively strong SLP somewhere near the TX Panhandle region across the C Plains and carry on a west/east track.  Could it be another "share the wealth"???  Tis' the season, esp when we are seeing favorable teleconnections lining up...are you ready???

 

Last night's 00z Euro came back north and not nearly as suppressed of a storm track it was advertising for a couple of runs.  The model tends to overreact to blocking in the long range and we don't have a deeply (-) EPO that would entail a suppressed storm track...yet...but that may change as the month progresses and those farther south may begin to see the wintry side of things.  In any event, here was the 00z Euro snowfall and 00z EPS snow mean.  If trends continue today, I may fire up a storm thread as my confidence that this system develops is very high.

 

Pulled the trigger for you buddy. Can you pls pin tho? Thx

[East Dubzz]

Hmm... I actually see snow on the models for next weekend. That’s weird. Won’t get my hopes up yet, though.

[Tom]

Jaster fired up a storm thread for the late week/weekend system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1940-jan-18th-20th-potential-winter-storm-can-this-be-the-one/