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June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

wawx orwx idwx cawx mtwx general discussion wx weather summer
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#51
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:29 PM

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The weekend curse continues. Washout 4th. :( :( :(


Where?

#52
James Jones

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:41 PM

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If the 66 at PDX holds it will be the coldest July high temp in a decade. Regime change????


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#53
Jginmartini

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:48 PM

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Not a bad day over at Lake Cushman.  Drove through a lot of drizzle earlier but once I got up near Shelton everything broke apart.  Never did get any measurable rainfall in Federal Way although when I arrived home it was dripping but not even getting the pavement wet. 
66/54 currently 62*

 

here is a little teaser shot of the lake.  Will post the rest of the shots in the outdoor thread.  The colors of the water were amazing when I got into the shallower places!!!

Attached Files


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Layman’s terms please 😁

#54
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:51 PM

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Where?


Tim's head for weeks.
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Low. Solar.


#55
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:56 PM

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Not a bad day over at Lake Cushman. Drove through a lot of drizzle earlier but once I got up near Shelton everything broke apart. Never did get any measurable rainfall in Federal Way although when I arrived home it was dripping but not even getting the pavement wet.
66/54 currently 62*

here is a little teaser shot of the lake. Will post the rest of the shots in the outdoor thread. The colors of the water were amazing when I got into the shallower places!!!


Gorgeous pic.
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#56
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:59 PM

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June Gloom continues into July. Ridges are not a common occurrence for the PNW any time of the year.


Yet from February to May the West Coast is constantly under a Rex Block where the PNW gets warm and sunny weather while southern California takes on a climate similar to the Faroe Islands or SE Alaska.

Weird.
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#57
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:00 PM

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Sounds like good weather.

Dreading returning home to this trash.

STH1HzK.png


That 109/88 has to be some record if it verifies.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#58
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:03 PM

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Dry down this way still. At least June finished a couple tenths above normal precip. Was +1.9F on the month.


I finished 149% of normal rainfall and +1.6F for June.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#59
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:08 PM

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PDX is up to 18.09” YTD which is only about an inch below average.

HIO is at 15.58” YTD which is 5” below average.
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#60
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:11 PM

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I finished 149% of normal rainfall and +1.6F for June.


TTD’s averages are so jacked up.

#61
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:16 PM

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High of just 64 here today, with mostly cloudy skies and light showers at times. A few sunbreaks thrown in too. Picked up .07” in showers.

Today’s 64/54 spread is easily my coolest July OR August day since 7/2/10. So almost ten years to the day.

#62
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:17 PM

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@Phil and others. 

 

NOAA is predicting a below avg July you buy it?



#63
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:17 PM

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The weather for the next 5-7 days looks incredibly pleasant.
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#64
MossMan

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:23 PM

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Weird year.

#65
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:33 PM

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Weird year.

 

 

ECMWF shows rain from Seattle northward for the next 2 days and some spotty rain up there on Saturday.    Sunday might be totally dry before rain possibly arrives late Monday.

 

What is pleasant for Portland is often gloomy up here.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#66
MossMan

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:37 PM

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ECMWF shows rain from Seattle northward for the next 2 days and some spotty rain up there on Saturday. Sunday might be totally dry before rain possibly arrives late Monday.

What is pleasant for Portland is often gloomy up here.

Sounds quite vomit worthy.

#67
MossMan

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:38 PM

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Up to .61” on the day.
Currently 53 degrees.

#68
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:47 PM

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No record low highs in Portland on a rainy July day.

#69
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:48 PM

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ECMWF shows rain from Seattle northward for the next 2 days and some spotty rain up there on Saturday.    Sunday might be totally dry before rain possibly arrives late Monday.

 

What is pleasant for Portland is often gloomy up here.  

 

PDX and SEA each had highs of 66 today. PDX with 0.02" and SEA with 0.01".


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#70
El_Nina

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:49 PM

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Icing on the mountain closed palmer today. Nice to have a mellow summer so far where you aren't blasted everytime you step outside.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#71
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:56 PM

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It is amusing watching Mr. Marine Layer interact with Mr. Jesse.


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Low. Solar.


#72
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:56 PM

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PDX and SEA each had highs of 66 today. PDX with 0.02" and SEA with 0.01".

 

Yes... I did not say today.    And today was gloomy for the Seattle area regardless of the rain total at SEA.

 

Jesse is absolutely right that it looks extremely pleasant down there for the next 5-7 days.

 

Here is tomorrow... notice SEA and PDX should be dry but not for many of us up here.   

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

 

 

 

And here is Friday... same story from Seattle northward.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12

 

 

And then Saturday... this day has been trending wetter so it might not be dry on the 4th.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip-12


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#73
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:03 PM

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GFS rules, Euro droolz!

#74
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:03 PM

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No record low highs in Portland on a rainy July day.


Today was probably dry about 80% of the time.

#75
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:04 PM

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Yes... I did not say today.    And today was gloomy for the Seattle regardless of the rain total at SEA.

 

Jesse is absolutely right that it looks extremely pleasant down there for the next 5-7 days.

 

Here is tomorrow... notice SEA and PDX should be dry but not for many of us up here.   

 

 

 

 

 

And here is Friday... same story from Seattle northward.

 

 

 

 

And then Saturday... this day has been trending wetter so it might not be dry on the 4th.

 

 

 

Snohomish County north can have fairly different tendencies in the summer and be far clammier than the rest of the region much closer to I-5. I would reject the notion that King County and points southward (where the majority of people live) has dramatically different summer weather. 



#76
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:05 PM

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Snohomish County north can have fairly different tendencies in the summer and be far clammier than the rest of the region much closer to I-5. I would reject the notion that King County and points southward (where the majority of people live) has dramatically different summer weather. 

 

Probably a fair assessment.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#77
Rubus Leucodermis

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:07 PM

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An all-day rain. Max of 58˚F (14.4˚C) at KBLI today. Coldest day on record this date was in 1954, max of 55˚F (12.8˚C).


It's called clown range for a reason.

#78
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:07 PM

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Omg some drizzle
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#79
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:14 PM

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I’m starting to wonder if we’re going to end up with a backloaded summer like 2011 or 2012. We will see though no way of knowing just a guess.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.26”(80+)days-10 (85+)days-1 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-86 August Rainfall 0.00”

#80
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:15 PM

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I’m starting to wonder if we’re going to end up with a backloaded summer like 2011 or 2012. We will see though no way of knowing just a guess.


Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#81
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:19 PM

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I’m starting to wonder if we’re going to end up with a backloaded summer like 2011 or 2012. We will see though no way of knowing just a guess.

 

 

It sort of feels that way now. 

 

2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September.    In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month.   But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#82
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:19 PM

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Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September.

Seemed like both of those years summer just got off to a really late start kinda similar to this year so far and then the main dry warm weather was in August and September. Both were nice summers without too much heat but the second half of the 2012 summer all the way into early October was extremely dry.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.26”(80+)days-10 (85+)days-1 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-86 August Rainfall 0.00”

#83
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:20 PM

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Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September.


My gut feeling is that we see the warmest September in at least a few years this fall. We have gotten off the hook for awhile now with mostly averagish ones since 2014’s record warm Sept.

#84
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:22 PM

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It sort of feels that way now. 
 
2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September.    In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month.   But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year.

We had no rainfall at this location from 7/20 all the way until 9/20. Then only 0.03” from 9/20 until 10/12. That was insanely dry. Of course it rained a pretty decent amount after that.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.26”(80+)days-10 (85+)days-1 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-86 August Rainfall 0.00”

#85
Jginmartini

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:23 PM

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My gut feeling is that we see the warmest September in at least a few years this fall. We have gotten off the hook for awhile now with mostly averagish ones since 2014’s record warm Sept.

Yellow Jackets will rejoice 


Layman’s terms please 😁

#86
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:24 PM

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My gut feeling is that we see the warmest September in at least a few years this fall. We have gotten off the hook for awhile now with mostly averagish ones since 2014’s record warm Sept.

Maybe we get lucky and have a repeat of last year! Last September was one of the best convective months I’ve seen here in Tacoma. Probably the best thunderstorm I’ve ever seen on 9/7 too.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.26”(80+)days-10 (85+)days-1 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-86 August Rainfall 0.00”

#87
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:26 PM

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But I also find it prudent to mention Andrew that with a building Niña all bets are OFF.


Isn’t it back to neutral now?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24


#88
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:28 PM

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Maybe we get lucky and have a repeat of last year! Last September was one of the best convective months I’ve seen here in Tacoma. Probably the best thunderstorm I’ve ever seen on 9/7 too.


Last September was interesting. A very warm and muggy start with record warm nights in Portland, then an historically cold finish with PDX scoring a November-esque 52/39 spread on the 29th/30th.

#89
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:28 PM

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We had no rainfall at this location from 7/20 all the way until 9/20. Then only 0.03” from 9/20 until 10/12. That was insanely dry. Of course it rained a pretty decent amount after that.

 

 

There was measurable rain here on just 5 days from July 1 - October 11, 2012.

 

There was rain here on 47 days in 2019 in the same time period.   

 

Normally there would be 24 days with rain here in that period.    Last year was about as unusual as 2012 in that time frame... except the other way.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#90
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:35 PM

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Maybe, though Oregon department of agriculture is going for a cooler than normal September.

 

Three of the last five Septembers were below normal at OLM, and one was average. Haven't had a top 5 warm September since 1995.

 

Due.


Low. Solar.


#91
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:36 PM

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Isn’t it back to neutral now?

 

 

Just got to neutral again... but I think the next dip is about to start.

 

nino34.png


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#92
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:36 PM

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It sort of feels that way now. 

 

2012 turned around right about now and then was absolutely gorgeous through September.    In 2011, the first 11 days of July were beautiful (83 here on the 4th) and then there was a few days with rain around the middle of the month.   But it was generally dry and nice from July-Sept that year.

 

May/June was also much cooler in 2011 and 2012 than this year.


Low. Solar.


#93
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:39 PM

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May/June was also much cooler in 2011 and 2012 than this year.

 

 

Yes... I was referring more to rain.

 

Interestingly... 2020 just passed 2011 at SEA and for the 11th wettest January-June period there.    


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#94
Phil

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:39 PM

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That 109/88 has to be some record if it verifies.


Yeah, official record is 106°. It’s difficult to hit 100°F in the DC area due to the elevated humidity. Mid/upper 90s happens several times per week, though. Tight threshold.

Lows in the 80s are more common than highs > 100°F.
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#95
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:41 PM

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Last September was interesting. A very warm and muggy start with record warm nights in Portland, then an historically cold finish with PDX scoring a November-esque 52/39 spread on the 29th/30th.

We had a 53/47 spread on 9/29...57/41 on 9/30. I went up to chinook pass on 9/28 to catch the first snow of the year this fall it was a pretty chilly airmass.

Attached Files


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Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.26”(80+)days-10 (85+)days-1 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-86 August Rainfall 0.00”

#96
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:42 PM

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00Z GFS looking more like the ECMWF for Friday... trending wetter and cooler from Seattle northward.


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#97
Phil

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:44 PM

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@Phil and others.

NOAA is predicting a below avg July you buy it?


Yes. But a warm stretch is possible during the 3rd week of the month, I think.
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Personal Weather Station Links:
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#98
MossMan

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:46 PM

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This pattern is going to continue until mid November when split flow will take over and dominate for the rest of winter. Too bad.
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#99
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:53 PM

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GFS guidance is probably not the best... but it shows around 78 on Saturday and 80 on Sunday in Seattle.

 

I was trying to get a gauge on it because I never look at it... and yesterday it showed 66 in Seattle for today and that was correct.   Still... I think it runs too warm most of the time.


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#100
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:55 PM

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GFS guidance is probably not the best... but it shows around 78 on Saturday and 80 on Sunday in Seattle.

I was trying to get a gauge on it because I never look at it... and yesterday it showed 66 in Seattle for today and that was correct. Still... I think it runs too warm most of the time.


When is your cancellation deadline?





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