November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

So...uh....moving on, my interest has been peaked by that strong gradient potential. Which is strange, because NWS seems to only be decreasing windspeeds. (This is for the coming Tuesday, correct?)

[Jesse]

I don't participate in cheerleading... that is for sure.   I think its silly.  

 

Good god dude. You do NOTHING but cheerlead for dry, warm and sunny weather. Every season. All the time. 50,000 posts worth. More than anyone else here cheerleads for any other type of weather.

 

Hypocrite.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Have I mentioned how much I love my area...during marginal snow level situations I am in a good spot at around 550’ but if the SL is just above that all I need to to is walk up to my neighbors property and enjoy sticking snow at 700’. Walked up there this morning to get an exact elevation. Last March after an overnight big snow the temps warmed a bit and snow was melting off of the trees with a rain/snow falling at my house, walked up to my neighbors to grab their tractor to plow out my driveway and it was still solidly below freezing with all snow falling and nothing coming off of the trees. Love this place!!

I live around the same elevation but nowhere near as good as you do for snow. You got a nice spot!

[TT-SEA]

Spot on.

 

 

Yeah... I can point to lots of things people have done over the years.     Consistently so. 

 

You also don't see me doing things that I used to do... like riding Jim.   Its been 4 years and counting since I did that.   Treat people with respect... most everyone on here is way too emotional about weather.   

[Gradient Keeper]

So...uh....moving on, my interest has been peaked by that strong gradient potential. Which is strange, because NWS seems to only be decreasing windspeeds. (This is for the coming Tuesday, correct?)

Yes. I posted this in my FB group earlier this morning

 

12z MM5-NAM

....Possible damaging downslope wind storm....

 

This morning's run shows a massive OTH-GEG gradient of -30mb setting up late Tuesday evening. General criteria for a downsloping east-northeast wind storm is around -22mb to -24mb. This absolutely shatters that! The image below is for 10 PM Tuesday. A strong, compact 979mb moves onshore just north of Brookings near Gold Beach. Forecast barometric Pressure at North Bend falls to 985mb meanwhile Spokane sits at 1015mb as higher pressure is building into Eastern Washington. Winds ramp up quickly late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The 12km Sounding over PDX for 4 AM Wednesday shows a stout 50-60kts aloft. These are the strongest easterly winds I've ever seen on any NAM sounding. If models do not back off on this scenario I think we'll see the NWS start to highlight this as well as the concerns for very strong winds for PDX metro, Clark County and Foothills. I would be even more concerned if the cold air were to thicken up more quickly up against the east slopes of the Washington Cascades. This is something we need to keep a close eye on.

 

 

[High Desert Mat?]

Where do I find the 18z euro when it’s comes out?

[Timmy]

I would love to see some mountain snow. So yeah... not trolling.

 

Not everything has to be about massive arctic outbreaks and lowland snow.

I know you do, but I also know you know the potential that pattern has with a few realistic minor changes. The fact that you would take it at face value when it’s 10 days out only if it contradicts the masses makes it trolling.

[Requiem]

 

Yes. I posted this in my FB group earlier this morning

 

12z MM5-NAM

....Possible damaging downslope wind storm....

 

This morning's run shows a massive OTH-GEG gradient of -30mb setting up late Tuesday evening. General criteria for a downsloping east-northeast wind storm is around -22mb to -24mb. This absolutely shatters that! The image below is for 10 PM Tuesday. A strong, compact 979mb moves onshore just north of Brookings near Gold Beach. Forecast barometric Pressure at North Bend falls to 985mb meanwhile Spokane sits at 1015mb as higher pressure is building into Eastern Washington. Winds ramp up quickly late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The 12km Sounding over PDX for 4 AM Wednesday shows a stout 50-60kts aloft. These are the strongest easterly winds I've ever seen on any NAM sounding. If models do not back off on this scenario I think we'll see the NWS start to highlight this as well as the concerns for very strong winds for PDX metro, Clark County and Foothills. I would be even more concerned if the cold air were to thicken up more quickly up against the east slopes of the Washington Cascades. This is something we need to keep a close eye on.

 

 

 

 

Geez. And all of a sudden EURO has started showing this too? Doesn't bode well...

[The Swamp]

Yeah... I can point to lots of things people have done over the years.     Consistently so. 

 

You also don't see me doing things that I used to do... like riding Jim.   Its been 4 years and counting since I did that.   Treat people with respect... most everyone on here is way too emotional about weather.   

it's the emotions that get people all worked up

[TT-SEA]

Good god dude. You do NOTHING but cheerlead for dry, warm and sunny weather. Every season. All the time. 50,000 posts worth. More than anyone else here cheerleads for any other type of weather.

 

Hypocrite.

 

 

No f*cking way.   

 

I always assume the worst.     I love sunny weather in the summer... but I hate trying to fool myself into thinking it will be nice.    Its has to be real and not something I know probably won't happen.

[TT-SEA]

Where do I find the 18z euro when it’s comes out?

 

 

Its on WB... but usually not until almost 4 p.m.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yes. I posted this in my FB group earlier this morning

 

12z MM5-NAM

....Possible damaging downslope wind storm....

 

This morning's run shows a massive OTH-GEG gradient of -30mb setting up late Tuesday evening. General criteria for a downsloping east-northeast wind storm is around -22mb to -24mb. This absolutely shatters that! The image below is for 10 PM Tuesday. A strong, compact 979mb moves onshore just north of Brookings near Gold Beach. Forecast barometric Pressure at North Bend falls to 985mb meanwhile Spokane sits at 1015mb as higher pressure is building into Eastern Washington. Winds ramp up quickly late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The 12km Sounding over PDX for 4 AM Wednesday shows a stout 50-60kts aloft. These are the strongest easterly winds I've ever seen on any NAM sounding. If models do not back off on this scenario I think we'll see the NWS start to highlight this as well as the concerns for very strong winds for PDX metro, Clark County and Foothills. I would be even more concerned if the cold air were to thicken up more quickly up against the east slopes of the Washington Cascades. This is something we need to keep a close eye on.

 

 

this will definitely be something to watch.

[Blizzard777]

So...uh....moving on, my interest has been peaked by that strong gradient potential. Which is strange, because NWS seems to only be decreasing windspeeds. (This is for the coming Tuesday, correct?)

Excited as well! Need more input! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Excited as well! Need more input!

 

If the east winds are going, me and you are both in the crosshairs of the stampede gap. Could get a little bit interesting here as well.

[Jesse]

Getting some sunbreaks here now, 48 degrees. Picked up around .10' overnight.

 

Looking forward to some possible weather action coming up over the next week. Pretty impressed with how cold the outflow looks like it could be, starting Thanksgiving day and moving into the weekend. Could definitely picture PDX scoring its first sub-40 high of the season at some point in there. Maybe a couple.

[Blizzard777]

If the east winds are going, me and you are both in the crosshairs of the stampede gap. Could get a little bit interesting here as well.

I may need to visit my Mom ( just left there) in SE Portland again 

I want to be near the source on this one!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Have I mentioned how much I love my area...during marginal snow level situations I am in a good spot at around 550’ but if the SL is just above that all I need to to is walk up to my neighbors property and enjoy sticking snow at 700’. Walked up there this morning to get an exact elevation. Last March after an overnight big snow the temps warmed a bit and snow was melting off of the trees with a rain/snow falling at my house, walked up to my neighbors to grab their tractor to plow out my driveway and it was still solidly below freezing with all snow falling and nothing coming off of the trees. Love this place!!

Same here. Many times I have been on way home and 1/2 mile from my house at 550 feet no snow and turn the corner and gain another 100ft and boom 2 inches. Still amazing to see.

[Jbolin]

I would love to see some mountain snow.   So yeah... not trolling.   

 

Not everything has to be about massive arctic outbreaks and lowland snow.  

Shut up, YES IT DOES. 

 

It absolutely has to be about massive arctic outbreaks and Siberian level Columbia basin cold pools and gobs upon gobs of snow and, and, and

 

 

 

 

[Jbolin]

So...uh....moving on, my interest has been peaked by that strong gradient potential. Which is strange, because NWS seems to only be decreasing windspeeds. (This is for the coming Tuesday, correct?)

Seriously dude, you need to steal a car, borrow your parents station wagon or hitchhike your a** up to Crown Point and get blasted really good once and for all. 

 

PLEASE!

[TacomaWaWx]

I may need to visit my Mom ( just left there) in SE Portland again 

I want to be near the source on this one!

Gorge would definitely be ground zero in this one. Stampede gap and the Fraser River valley would be going pretty hard too. I’m almost tempted to head to Portland to see this myself too if this verifies.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS consistent with the last couple runs... split flow in the 10-15 day period.   

 

 

[Jesse]

Seriously dude, you need to steal a car, borrow your parents station wagon or hitchhike your a** up to Crown Point and get blasted really good once and for all. 

PLEASE!

I can volunteer to drive K12 to the gorge. I love showing people around, especially when there is exciting weather involved.

 

I will never forget the epic drive MallowTheCloud and I went on in the week leading up to December 2008’s craziness.

[Requiem]

Seriously dude, you need to steal a car, borrow your parents station wagon or hitchhike your a** up to Crown Point and get blasted really good once and for all. 

 

PLEASE!

 

Oh, I probably will sometime this coming winter. I've actually only been up there once!

[Omegaraptor]

No f*cking way.   

 

I always assume the worst.     I love sunny weather in the summer... but I hate trying to fool myself into thinking it will be nice.    Its has to be real and not something I know probably won't happen.

One of the driest Novembers on record and you’re still always assuming the worst.

 

You need to move.

[TT-SEA]

Split flow evident on 15-day precip map as well... wet in CA and dry all the way up the BC coast.

 

[TT-SEA]

One of the driest Novembers on record and you’re still always assuming the worst.

 

You need to move.

 

This is silly.

 

Not what I said at all.    I was talking about summer.     

 

When I have even remotely said this November has been too wet?    I honestly don't care much at all about the cold season.   I expect rain.   Dry weather is nice when it happens.  

 

I assumed that I would like this winter no matter what happens... since it would likely be blocky.   And its playing out even drier than I assumed.

[Jbolin]

I can volunteer to drive K12 to the gorge. I love showing people around, especially when there is exciting weather involved.

 

I will never forget the epic drive MallowTheCloud and I went on in the week leading up to December 2008’s craziness.

Where shall I paypal the $10 in gas money?

 

 

[Blizzard777]

Shut up, YES IT DOES. 

 

It absolutely has to be about massive arctic outbreaks and Siberian level Columbia basin cold pools and gobs upon gobs of snow and, and, and

 

 

 

 

Crown Point would be a kick with this one!!! 

K, you need to go do this!  If you don’t weigh much I recommend a couple heavy bowling balls to keep you grounded 

[Jesse]

Where shall I paypal the $10 in gas money?

 

Just send it directly to my BanTim4Life fund. I think we can get Fred to do it if the price is right.

[Blizzard777]

Crown Point would be a kick with this one!!! 

K, you need to go do this!  If you don’t weigh much I recommend a couple heavy bowling balls to keep you grounded 

Attached the wrong quote...sorry about that

[Jbolin]

Crown Point would be a kick with this one!!! 

K, you need to go do this!  If you don’t weigh much I recommend a couple heavy bowling balls to keep you grounded 

Keely Chalmers taking one for the team https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO3Op-Pkb3s

 

A losing battle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSW_osw8e9U

 

There are many more vids like this to be found but a decent face value look at conditions at Crown Point during strong outflow conditions

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

51 and mostly sunny at noon. Light SW breeze.

[Jbolin]

Just send it directly to my BanTim4Life fund. I think we can get Fred to do it if the price is right.

I'm sending $1000 RIGHT MEOW!

[Jesse]

[Blizzard777]

Keely Chalmers taking one for the team https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QO3Op-Pkb3s

 

A losing battle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSW_osw8e9U

 

There are many more vids like this to be found but a decent face value look at conditions at Crown Point during strong outflow conditions

 

 

LOL!

LOVE IT! 

My grandson blew away last year when I took him!  He loved it too

were all kids at heart

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

Yes. I posted this in my FB group earlier this morning

 

12z MM5-NAM

....Possible damaging downslope wind storm....

 

This morning's run shows a massive OTH-GEG gradient of -30mb setting up late Tuesday evening. General criteria for a downsloping east-northeast wind storm is around -22mb to -24mb. This absolutely shatters that! The image below is for 10 PM Tuesday. A strong, compact 979mb moves onshore just north of Brookings near Gold Beach. Forecast barometric Pressure at North Bend falls to 985mb meanwhile Spokane sits at 1015mb as higher pressure is building into Eastern Washington. Winds ramp up quickly late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The 12km Sounding over PDX for 4 AM Wednesday shows a stout 50-60kts aloft. These are the strongest easterly winds I've ever seen on any NAM sounding. If models do not back off on this scenario I think we'll see the NWS start to highlight this as well as the concerns for very strong winds for PDX metro, Clark County and Foothills. I would be even more concerned if the cold air were to thicken up more quickly up against the east slopes of the Washington Cascades. This is something we need to keep a close eye on.

 

 

Hmmmmmm that's going to cause widespread power outages if that verifies. The event is fast approaching. Hopefully Mark will chime in tonight or tomorrow with his thoughts.

[Requiem]

So far NAM is significantly north compared to last run.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I may need to visit my Mom ( just left there) in SE Portland again

I want to be near the source on this one!

Come on down early for Thanksgiving!

[bainbridgekid]

LOL!

LOVE IT! 

My grandson blew away last year when I took him!  He loved it too

were all kids at heart

Tough way to go. Glad to see you can focus on the positive in the face of such a tragedy.

[bainbridgekid]

So far NAM is significantly north compared to last run.

Sure is.