CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 12Z GFS. It looks better for my area than previous GFS runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, MSP_Weather said: Why not a quick death? Well that too. I’m just going off with how the winter has been for my area! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 Not alot of change with the 12z models 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 Snow has really picked up here. Large flakes blowing around. 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 Here is the band coming through my area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 30 minutes ago, Clinton said: Not alot of change with the 12z models Models are coming into agreement with the GFS that this should be a 1-70 and south snowstorm like it was the previous cycle. Hopefully the NWS can get their map updated to reflect 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Models are coming into agreement with the GFS that this should be a 1-70 and south snowstorm like it was the previous cycle. Hopefully the NWS can get their map updated to reflect That 0.1" modeled for Omaha would just be icing on the cake... honestly it feels like a nightmare that keeps repeating over and over again. Guess it could be worse, we could be in Sioux City where they missed the surprise snow on Sunday Night and have a season total of 4.2" (at least we managed to hit double digits- barely). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 12z EURO definitely dried out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 This band over me has basically not moved in 2 hours. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: This band over me has basically not moved in 2 hours. Enjoy!!! Looks like you are in the lucky spot for now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Bryan1117 said: Enjoy!!! Looks like you are in the lucky spot for now. Question is, will the luck continue tonight? The heavy band might end up 15 miles south of me looking at the RAP and HRRR. We'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: Couple of things: First, I really do feel for the Nebraska folks. I definitely know what it's like to be close, but keep missing over and over. That big year you guys had last year missed us for the most part -- just barely, and over and over. Just an amazingly bad winter for NE and SD this year. At least it's almost over now, and you can put it behind you. Second, the GFS has been really good this year, at least for KC. Not perfect by any means. But I feel like models have caved to it far more often than the other way around this year. Next year could be totally different. But I'm going to try to remember to give the GFS the benefit of the doubt next year unless it forces me not to. Last year was awesome here while KC struggled. Not that I want to hog all the snow, but it sure is rough constantly getting missed. We’re ready to start fresh next year, this winter was just a practice lol. 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 Forecasts are upping amounts around here by a couple of inches. My grids now saying possibly 7”. Already have a couple inches with this band that really wasn’t predicted. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z NAM and RDPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out. Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out. Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. Congrats! Looking at radar, the snow is developing right over you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out. Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. Isn’t awesome to have a cold, daytime snowstorm that you can enjoy watching? Congrats bud! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 SPC just issued this heavy snow MSD... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0232.html SUMMARY...Heavy snow may develop over the next few hours in proximity to a sagging arctic front across the central Plains. Snow rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible, potentially impacting travel. DISCUSSION...As of 2140z, regional radar imagery showed a band of snow showers developing across portions of the central Plains. Driven by increasing forcing for ascent ahead of a positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Great Basin and central Rockies, precipitation coverage/intensity is forecast to increase over the next few hours. Aloft, strong warm advection is forecast to increase late this afternoon and overnight as the low-level jet increase across the Plains in response to the approaching trough. This along with strengthening frontogenesis and some symmetric instability release will likely support a narrow band, or bands, of moderate to heavy snow through parts of eastern CO and the NE/KS border region. Hi-res ensemble guidance agrees and suggests fairly high probabilities of 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates developing within some of these convectively augmented bands this evening and overnight. While most model guidance suggests the greatest potential for heavy snow will occur after 02z, current radar trends suggests some moderate to heavy snow may develop slightly earlier closer to 23-00z. Heavy snow will likely result in quick accumulations and travel problems, especially under the stronger bands later tonight. 4 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Congrats! Looking at radar, the snow is developing right over you. For about 5 hours now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out. Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. Glad to hear that, hopefully that translates well over this way 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, mlgamer said: SPC just issued this heavy snow MSD... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0232.html SUMMARY...Heavy snow may develop over the next few hours in proximity to a sagging arctic front across the central Plains. Snow rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible, potentially impacting travel. DISCUSSION...As of 2140z, regional radar imagery showed a band of snow showers developing across portions of the central Plains. Driven by increasing forcing for ascent ahead of a positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Great Basin and central Rockies, precipitation coverage/intensity is forecast to increase over the next few hours. Aloft, strong warm advection is forecast to increase late this afternoon and overnight as the low-level jet increase across the Plains in response to the approaching trough. This along with strengthening frontogenesis and some symmetric instability release will likely support a narrow band, or bands, of moderate to heavy snow through parts of eastern CO and the NE/KS border region. Hi-res ensemble guidance agrees and suggests fairly high probabilities of 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates developing within some of these convectively augmented bands this evening and overnight. While most model guidance suggests the greatest potential for heavy snow will occur after 02z, current radar trends suggests some moderate to heavy snow may develop slightly earlier closer to 23-00z. Heavy snow will likely result in quick accumulations and travel problems, especially under the stronger bands later tonight. Right over me. Interesting 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: NAM has come back north. It is absolutely ripping out. Visibility down to 1/3 of a mile. Awesome, this turned into a great storm for you! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 Congrats to you Midwest Peeps getting this snowstorm, and kudos to Tom for making a call that there would be some out that way. Not everyone (OMA) is getting slammed, but at least it's not another shut-out for those west of the Mississippi. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 I'm kinda surprised Omaha was kept in the ww advisory given the likelihood of less than 1" of snowfall. Probably did for continuity, but I'm sure plenty of people will wake up tomorrow morning surprised to see we have nothing on the ground! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 23z HRRR. Snow wants to really pile up in South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 23z HRRR. Snow wants to really pile up in South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas. Big yikes for Lincoln. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 Yep, it looks like we will get absolutely nothing in Omaha and Lincoln from this system. Unseasonably cold air with no snow is just stupid and makes me hate this dud of a Winter that much more. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 ouch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: No snow this far north but I will get to experience something I never have before: double-digit negative temperatures! Friday night's low is forecasted for -1F with wind chills in the teens below zero. Sounds... cold! It'll be..cool..heh heh, the first time. Soon enough you'll learn to dread it lol 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 Interesting how similar the HRRR and Euro are and how similar the SREF is to the GFS. Either way I-70 snowstorm still looks good. SREF at 10:1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 54 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Yep, it looks like we will get absolutely nothing in Omaha and Lincoln from this system. Unseasonably cold air with no snow is just stupid and makes me hate this dud of a Winter that much more. Just another evening of dry, cold, gusty winds like many have been this year 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, snowstorm83 said: Just another evening of dry, cold, gusty winds like many have been this year That is terrible for you guys. Another heavy snow band coming through here. Winter wonderland. Haven’t said that this year. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: That is terrible for you guys. Another heavy snow band coming through here. Winter wonderland. Haven’t said that this year. 18Z GFS showed a nice storm next weekend, so maybe we'll get a big one yet. Although after the spring weather next week, it'll be okay if it doesn't happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: No snow this far north but I will get to experience something I never have before: double-digit negative temperatures! Friday night's low is forecasted for -1F with wind chills in the teens below zero. Sounds... cold! You arrived a little late but there will be plenty of that Dec-Feb next year I moved to Nebraska 5 years ago and never experienced a below zero air temp until then. Now I know if my nose hairs instantly freeze outside, it’s probably below zero. 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 Could be an interesting weekend out this way with the cyclone bombing out into the 970mb range. Haven’t had a rain-to-snow transition in a strong cyclone here since the middle 2000s. Enhanced risk for damaging winds already highlighted in the HWO. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 Looks like every school from I 80 and south is closed tomorrow. Our district among others are on Spring Break so no school anyway. University of Nebraska at Kearney is closed tomorrow. My alma mater rarely closes so this is something. Roads are horrendous. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 OAX's hopium is showing. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 I guess the main timing was supposed to be midnight-6 am but even 2-4” for Lincoln seems like a stretch given the terrible model trends and radar looking like crap. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 10, 2022 Report Share Posted March 10, 2022 RDPS is the only mesoscale still holding out on plowable snow in Lincoln. RDPS is also not a good model. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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