April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[gusky]

Maybe one last hurrah for winter 2021-22?

[BLI snowman]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z Euro control run looks epic out there.

You know it's getting serious when we start referencing the Control.

[TT-SEA]

My son just texted me and said this is probably the best ski conditions he has ever experienced in his life today at Crystal.    There is about 3 feet of new powder on top in sunshine with a deep blue sky.   

 

[Deweydog]

50 years ago right now Rob’s nipples would have been very erect.

[SouthHillFrosty]

@TT-SEA we need models posted

 

 

 

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@TT-SEA we need models posted

 

 

 

Okie dokie...

 

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some gorgeous systems coming up. Was nice to get a solid dusting last night. Latest snow since we’ve been here was 4.15.15, would love to beat that.

[SouthHillFrosty]

12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Winter is back baby!!!! LFG

[TacomaWaWx]

Don’t think I’ll be mentally prepared if we get snow after hitting 70 on Thursday. Obviously very skeptical about our chances but it’s not like it’s never snowed in April before so we will see. Euro just seems to be over optimistic in these marginal situations. 

[FroYoBro]

Had gusty winds with some hail yesterday afternoon. Just got another little hail shower that passed through now. April might actually be an exciting month this year! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Beautiful day here in Tacoma. 51 mostly sunny and breezy. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro is really chilly overall next week. Highs in the mid 40s with lows in the mid 30s which is typical for January. 

[MossMan]

Looking forward to this…Not that…

I should just ban myself from the forum in April each year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some chilly lows tonight.

 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

50 years ago right now Rob’s nipples would have been very erect.

 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looking forward to this…Not that…

I should just ban myself from the forum in April each year. 

I will be thinking of you in Hawaii, Randy!!

[Deweydog]

Any right-minded PNW weather weenie knows you NEVER leave town for an extended period of time during mid April.

#don’tbetacomawawx

[Meatyorologist]

Hoping to get sum’n out of this

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I will be thinking of you in Hawaii, Randy!!

Can I hitch a ride? I can be your service animal and could lay at your feet on the plane! Anything to get me away from this crap weather for a week! 

[NWbyNW]

It is very possible that parts of the Puget Sound will hit 70F (officially) for the first time this year (depending on location) on Thursday.   I'm waiting for the local news media to pounce on this story and get all excited, and start warning people about heat stroke.    

It looks very possible, especially further south in Tacoma.  Seattle is possible too.  Less likely north. 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Can I hitch a ride? I can be your service animal and could lay at your feet on the plane! Anything to get me away from this crap weather for a week! 

Right there with you... just depressing.     I need to stop looking at the models until I see people on here complaining that summer never ends.    

[Blizzard777]

44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Hoping to get sum’n out of this

Looks pretty weak from my end.

South winds light as well

[FroYoBro]

53 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Any right-minded PNW weather weenie knows you NEVER leave town for an extended period of time during mid April.

#don’tbetacomawawx

I already said this exact joke a week ago to Justin. 
 

#loser #ifyouaren’tfirstyou’relast

[Meatyorologist]

Just actually had some snow here. They were very wet flakes and almost looked like fat, wet raindrops. But they didn’t bounce like graupel/sleet and they melted on contact. It is 2pm on April 5th. lol

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Looks pretty weak from my end.

South winds light as well

EL’s are rapidly lowering as we speak. In about 2 or 3 hours showers will be too shallow to produce lightning. If only this trough had lasted a few hours longer…

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just actually had some snow here. They were very wet flakes and almost looked like fat, wet raindrops. But they didn’t bounce like graupel/sleet and they melted on contact. It is 2pm on April 5th. lol

And with 925mb temps of +2 or +3 right now.    Winter rules don't apply.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just noticed that the 12Z ECMWF shows lowland snow on Saturday as well... and little bit on Sunday.   It basically shows a chance of lowland snow every day for almost a week straight... in the middle of April.  

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And with 925mb temps of +2 or +3 right now.    Winter rules don't apply.

 

That might not be entirely accurate... Local convective features (not picked up on by a global res model initialized five hours ago) would lower 950s to around freezing, or even lower. Still though, impressive to get snow while it's 45°F at the surface.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That might not be entirely accurate... Local convective features (not picked up on by a global res model initialized five hours ago) would lower 950s to around freezing, or even lower. Still though, impressive to get snow while it's 45°F at the surface.

Just when we told Phil that never happens here!  It's 53 and sunny at SEA and snowing in Seattle.   Can't ever remember that happening. 

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Right there with you... just depressing.     I need to stop looking at the models until I see people on here complaining that summer never ends.    

Imagine this pattern recurring summer after summer for nearly a decade. That’s what cool weather lovers have had to suffer through since 2013.

At some point the interdecadal background state will have to change. Maybe not this year, but sometime (relatively) soon. Essentially all of the most extreme and anomalous interdecadal regimes since WWII were balanced out by opposite extremes in subsequent decades.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Any right-minded PNW weather weenie knows you NEVER leave town for an extended period of time during mid April.

#don’tbetacomawawx

Don’t know if I’ll ever fully forgive myself for December 2021. 

[NWbyNW]

Uhhh... it was 50F degrees and snowing about ten minutes ago?  Blue sky all around except for a cloud above me.... uhhh....

Nothing stuck. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Imagine this pattern recurring summer after summer for nearly a decade. That’s what cool weather lovers have had to suffer through since 2013.

At some point the interdecadal background state will have to change. Maybe not this year, but sometime (relatively) soon. Essentially all of the most extreme and anomalous interdecadal regimes since WWII were balanced out by opposite extremes in subsequent decades.

This is pretty inaccurate.      Go back farther and our summers were not normally like the coldest and wettest years.   Those were on far end of the climo spectrum.     This pattern all summer would be extremely unusual and should not be expected.

[TT-SEA]

In addition to the SEA radar being down... the satellite stopped updating an hour ago.    Totally flying blind now.   Onto traffic cameras.  

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That might not be entirely accurate... Local convective features (not picked up on by a global res model initialized five hours ago) would lower 950s to around freezing, or even lower. Still though, impressive to get snow while it's 45°F at the surface.

Gotta love convection. Actually quite impressive given your mixed layer dewpoints aren’t super low.

IIRC we had -3°C 925hpa temps when snow fell with a surface temp of 52°F a couple of weeks ago. But very low dewpoints in the mixed layer, so evaporative cooling def the big factor with that.

[Deweydog]

37 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I already said this exact joke a week ago to Justin. 
 

#loser #ifyouaren’tfirstyou’relast

I feel like Melania at the 2016 RNC.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is pretty inaccurate.      Go back farther and our summers were not normally like the coldest and wettest years.   Those were on far end of the climo spectrum.     This pattern all summer would be extremely unusual and should not be expected.

I’m talking about 500mb patterns. The last decade has been dominated by +TNH like patterns, which is responsible for the warm/dry conditions experienced in the western US, particularly during the warm season. It’s been driven by changes in convection over the west-Pacific warm pool (and the off-equator subtropical NPAC in general).

The 1940s are the closest dynamic analog I can think of (though not nearly as extreme). Which of course were followed by the opposite tendency dominating the 1950s.

Same story with the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976 occurring immediately after the most anomalous multiyear Niña/-PDO cycle on record.