Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS on top and 06Z EPS at the end of the run at the same time. Pretty minor differences. No, there is a huge difference in the evolution. You will see that in time when the GFS eventually corrects. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 That back-digging near the Aleutians is complete bulls**t. My eyes bleed looking at it. Doesn’t make a lick of sense. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Phil said: No, there is a huge difference in the evolution. You will see that in time when the GFS eventually corrects. Big difference later. But not much at D6. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Big difference later. But not much at D6. Funny how I already saw it by D4. It shows up well before D6. I’ll bet even the GEFS will look nothing like that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Sun is trying to come out here. 62 degrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Cloudy and 57 currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Doiinko said: A repeat of August 1954?? Not a chance 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 The GEFS is notoriously under-dispersed and even it looks very different by D5 (especially over Northern Canada). Embarrassing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 If the GFS was a ballboy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phil said: The GEFS is notoriously under-dispersed and even it looks very different by D5 (especially over Northern Canada). Embarrassing. Another hot run huh? Probably will verify. EPS has consistently been toasty in the long range. 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 46 minutes ago, Doiinko said: I know this is extremely early, but do you have any thoughts on when our best window for winter weather is? If you think it'll be more frontloaded or backloaded. Sorry if this is way too early for an idea about that lol Too early to know. Only low frequency tendencies are remotely decipherable at this range. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 What kind of tree is this that has co-opted this cedar? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Another hot run huh? Probably will verify. EPS has consistently been toasty in the long range. We’ll see. Last 2 times the GFS/GEFS tried this it was wrong. In fact it resembles one of the leading error modes (across guidance) ahead of an IO/E-Hem MJO in J/A/S. It’s more emphasized in the GEFS/GEPS but even the EPS can fall victim. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Too early to know. Only low frequency tendencies are remotely decipherable at this range. Something happening in January would be nice. Excepting January 2017 (which was the 7th coldest on record at PDX), they've been pretty boring recently. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Something happening in January would be nice. Excepting January 2017 (which was the 7th coldest on record at PDX), they've been pretty boring recently. Jan 1950 or 1969 please. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 15 hours ago, Jginmartini said: Cloud pic is Redondo beach near Federal Way on the Sound! lol…posted that shot of the marmot in the hiker forum and many thought the same thing . He was pretty huge for a marmot ! Yeah it's bigger than the ones I've seen down here. I always forget they're just really huge squirrels. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 1949? Analog? 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 14 hours ago, Doiinko said: The reanalysis for 2016-2017 is actually decently similar!: Indeed! There is definitely a sweet spot (latitude/longitude) where we want that blocking high to set up shop at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Indeed! There is definitely a sweet spot (latitude/longitude) where we want that blocking high to set up shop at. Great winter in my location! I had 18" of snow! 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Up to 59! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Severe clear already today. Another warm one. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Actually looks a little convective here. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 #ten90July? 1 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Lo and behold... the 12Z ECMWF is digging that Alaskan vortex westward like the GFS. This does leave more room for weak little ULLs over the PNW as well. But the surface details still show sunny and warm. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 That weak ULL one week from today doesn't do much to keep it cool on this run... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Pretty toasty... not so sure we are going into a colder pattern for the second half of July. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Pretty toasty... not so sure we are going into a colder pattern for the second half of July. We are obviously not, and yet another warm summer in the 2013- now 2022 mold. The beat goes on and western mega drought continues. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Yeah it's bigger than the ones I've seen down here. I always forget they're just really huge squirrels. Back when I saw my first one in 2016 and didn't know what they were until googling, I thought they resembled beavers. Just without the huge front teeth. They're groundhogs technically but a lot of people don't know that. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 If this year can’t do it for a cool summer, given the state of ENSO and the PDO, we probably never will. 2 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Lo and behold... the 12Z ECMWF is digging that Alaskan vortex westward like the GFS. This does leave more room for weak little ULLs over the PNW as well. But the surface details still show sunny and warm. Indeed, and I’ll wager it’s wrong too. None of today’s model solutions make any sense to me whatsoever. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Just now, Phil said: Indeed, and I’ll wager it’s wrong too. Doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. I’m sure we will get the alphabet soup explanation of WHAT WENT WRONG after seeing a couple days in the triple digits the last week of July 2 1 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Not gonna bet my junk on it (yet) but it’s borderline. Might end up doing so. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I’m sure we will get the alphabet soup explanation of WHAT WENT WRONG after seeing a couple days in the triple digits the last week of July If you’re wrong expect a torrent of weenie reacts. 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: If you’re wrong expect a torrent of weenie reacts. 2 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: If you’re wrong expect a torrent of weenie reacts. Hoping no richards are getting the guillotine. 1 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Just now, Timmy Supercell said: Hoping no richards are getting the guillotine. Any bet where winning = being proven right and losing = cutting off junk needs to be re-evaluated for appropriate cost/benefit analysis. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 Looks like the CPC is on team Death/Tim. 1 1 2 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, Phil said: Indeed, and I’ll wager it’s wrong too. None of today’s model solutions make any sense to me whatsoever. EPS and control run went strongly in that direction as well. Whatever the GFS is seeing... the European suite is seeing the same thing. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 17, 2022 Report Share Posted July 17, 2022 I mean was anyone really expecting late July to be cool besides Phil? It’s almost always the warmest time of year. Pretty much a best case scenario nowdays seems to be an average or slightly warmer than normal July and august by 1991-2020 averages. I thought this year might be the year we actually have a normal summer but that looks unlikely for July atleast. August hasn’t been cool in 20 years and I bet it won’t be this year either. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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