On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does look like it going to crash by day 8 though... more so than the 00Z run.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sure the EPS will be quicker with the cool down or whatever, but that becomes kind of a moot point when the operational runs are this consistent keeping us hot through eternity.

12z Euro is noticeably cooler by Tuesday at least. Big difference from 00z.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

12z Euro is noticeably cooler by Tuesday at least. Big difference from 00z.

That’s true. It was also several degrees cooler for Sunday. Baby steps I guess.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12z Euro is noticeably cooler by Tuesday at least. Big difference from 00z.

Yeah... more consolidated for sure.   Still sunny and around 80 in Seattle on Tuesday on this run but the trough is moving in by then.

[Deweydog]

Looks like KSPB scored a 71 for a low. One short of their max/min record.

[TT-SEA]

Surprisingly... its still sunny even on Wednesday (day 9) on this run and in the upper 70s in Seattle and well into the 80s in Portland.

The angle of the trough offshore is not favorable to bring in the marine layer.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like KSPB scored a 71 for a low. One short of their max/min record.

Dime a dozen these days  

[The Blob]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is Saturday-Monday...

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really scared about the possibility of this upcoming through guys 

[TT-SEA]

Even at the end of the run on the morning of day 10... the marine layer is still just spotty with the trough hanging offshore.

This run shows a very slow and sunny cool down.    There is basically no solid marine layer inland through this entire run.     

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really scared about the possibility of this upcoming through guys 

I won't even be here.   I would prefer it come inland and not sit offshore for days.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Why does evil always win?

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

80 here, 75 at KHQM, NWS says HQM should only get to 76 so.... thats gonna be wrong.

Yep, 79 at KHQM now, 86 here!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Why does evil always win?

You had a 3 month winning streak that just ended a few weeks ago.    

 

[TT-SEA]

Not sure about the EPS being faster with the cool down... still looks very warm this weekend.  

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Dime a dozen these days  

They couldn’t manage a low above 68 during last June’s hellfire.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure about the EPS being faster with the cool down... still looks very warm this weekend.  

Yikes. 

[TacomaWx]

77 here 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They couldn’t manage a low above 68 during last June’s hellfire.

So exciting!!!!

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So exciting!!!!

Keep it together, man…

It’s a weather forum.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is going towards the trough offshore solution as well.  

Control run looks just like the operational run early next week except the trough is a little farther offshore on the control run.

 

[Kayla]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure about the EPS being faster with the cool down... still looks very warm this weekend.  

Next week is looking good though. Pretty lockstep with the operational now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Keep it together, man…

It’s a weather forum.

True. This seems like an overreaction 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Next week is looking good though. Pretty lockstep with the operational now.

Next week looks great.

[Kayla]

Next weeks pattern kind of reminds me of the first ~10 days this month on the 12z EPS. Lots of SW'erly flow. I'll accept it.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Next weeks pattern kind of reminds me of the first 10 days this month on the 12z EPS. Lots of SW'erly flow. I'll accept it.

Wouldn’t mind repeating the 7/2 Central Oregon thunderstorm but on the westside.

There was an inch of hail on the ground in the NE corner of Klamath County. It was surreal.

[Omegaraptor]

88 in Lake Oswego. About to go whack some weeds.

[BLI snowman]

46 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They couldn’t manage a low above 68 during last June’s hellfire.

As Frontal Snowsquall pointed out last night, pretty fascinating reversal of our usual setup with the adiabatic warming off the Coast Range. Very unusual.

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wouldn’t mind repeating the 7/2 Central Oregon thunderstorm but on the westside.

There was an inch of hail on the ground in the NE corner of Klamath County. It was surreal.

A legit warm core thunderstorm on the westside would be nice before the end of summer. Not holding my breath though given the trend in recent years. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And another 90F burger!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And another 90F burger!

80 burger #8 here lol

[Cloud]

These types of summers can go F' itself. 

[Cloud]

Euro is already wrong for today. Called for a 77 at 2pm. Meanwhile GFS for 85. 

SEA already hit 84 and 81 at BFI

But too hot for Tacoma? 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

These types of summers can go F' itself. 

I’m gonna wait and see how august ends up before making my verdict on it. If we get through this heatwave and only get a couple warm days later in august I don’t think I’d consider it to be too bad despite the fact that a “good” summer is +2 above 1991-2020 averages now. 

[FroYoBro]

91 here and looks like pdx has already reached 90 as well. 100 probably unlikely, but still possible for today. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

EPS looking decent

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

As Frontal Snowsquall pointed out last night, pretty fascinating reversal of our usual setup with the adiabatic warming off the Coast Range. Very unusual.

Occasionally they’ll keep those low level northerlies and not decouple. The 72 occurred during the early August 2017 event.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Deweydog

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m gonna wait and see how august ends up before making my verdict on it. If we get through this heatwave and only get a couple warm days later in august I don’t think I’d consider it to be too bad despite the fact that a “good” summer is +2 above 1991-2020 averages now. 

History have shown us albeit small sample size that a triple Nina will be followed by a very strong Nino(have occurred 2-3 different occasions). If the last couple of summers are our Nina summers, I’m actually a bit terrified to see what next year will be like. 
 

Still, very small sample sizes and need more data. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sure the EPS will be quicker with the cool down or whatever, but that becomes kind of a moot point when the operational runs are this consistent keeping us hot through eternity.

EPS actually trended cooler. And so did the operational run.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

History have shown us albeit small sample size that a triple Nina will be followed by a very strong Nino(have occurred 2-3 different occasions). If the last couple of summers are our Nina summers, I’m actually a bit terrified to see what next year will be like. 
 

Still, very small sample sizes and need more data. 

Actually the last 2 triple dip niñas were followed by ENSO neutral.

1998-2000 followed by neutral in 2001/02. Then El Niño in 2002/03.

1974-1976 followed by neutral in 1976/77. In fact ENSO neutral continued until the super niño in 1982/83.

The 1954/55 to 1956/57 triple -ENSO was followed by a super El Niño in 1957/58, but ironically 1957 was a cool summer in the West.