PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This map is in knots.  MPH is actually higher.

The small piece of land just south of Nova Scotia under the strongest winds is Sable Island National Park Reserve. It's a remote barrier sandbar that's home to around 500 wild horses and a large gray seal colony. It looks like a really beautiful place but it might never be the same after Fiona.

https://www.pc.gc.ca/en/pn-np/ns/sable

[SilverFallsAndrew]

29 minutes ago, T-Town said:

How long is the drive from your place to Bend?

About 2 1/2 hours. A 136 mile drive.

 

22 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Should have hit me up. I would’ve met you somewhere or you could’ve came to my restaurant. 

Good to know, we ll be back.

[T-Town]

Nice sunset. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The small piece of land just south of Nova Scotia under the strongest winds is Sable Island National Park Reserve. It's a remote barrier sandbar that's home to around 500 wild horses and a large gray seal colony. It looks like a really beautiful place but it might never be the same after Fiona.

https://www.pc.gc.ca/en/pn-np/ns/sable

There are no trees there.

[Cloud]

A bit of a personal post on my end. This was a few years in the making but had to postponed several times due to the passing of my mom during Covid and obviously the continuation of Covid until we are safe to travel. And also why I made this trip back to the home country for the first time in 20 years. 
 

This was taken at Central Highlands of Vietnam in Da Lat early morning.  The fog and mists was just like home. 

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice evening. Was a nice early afternoon in Central Oregon too. 

Definitely will be going back to central Oregon next year. It’s really an amazing place one of the most beautiful areas I’ve ever been to. 
 70/55 today not too bad. 

[RentonHill]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There are no trees there.

That’s too bad. Going to make the erosion from the rain and storm surge even worse!! 

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

That’s too bad. Going to make the erosion from the rain and storm surge even worse!! 

It's a narrow sand bar that has taken the brunt of thousands of nor'easters.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Definitely will be going back to central Oregon next year. It’s really an amazing place one of the most beautiful areas I’ve ever been to. 
 70/55 today not too bad. 

The last two times we have gone have been in the fall and it is really nice after Labor Day IMO. Especially during the week, things can get pretty crowded in the summer sometimes. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last two times we have gone have been in the fall and it is really nice after Labor Day IMO. Especially during the week, things can get pretty crowded in the summer sometimes. 

We went to Central Oregon in September 2020 and it was really nice until the smoke arrived. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

We went to Central Oregon in September 2020 and it was really nice until the smoke arrived. 

When we stayed in October 2019 there was some non-sticking snow in Bend and a nice dusting on the pass. It was around the 10th I believe. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

There are no trees there.

there is one tree, a Scots Pine

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

there is one tree, a Scots Pine

They planted 80,000 trees there in 1904.   They all died.    Don't think trees are meant to live there.

That one "tree" is going to make it through this storm!    

[TigerWoodsLibido]

59F and beautiful out there.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The small piece of land just south of Nova Scotia under the strongest winds is Sable Island National Park Reserve. It's a remote barrier sandbar that's home to around 500 wild horses and a large gray seal colony. It looks like a really beautiful place but it might never be the same after Fiona.

https://www.pc.gc.ca/en/pn-np/ns/sable

I hope they tried to do something to help the horses that are there.  Could be awful for them.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Definitely will be going back to central Oregon next year. It’s really an amazing place one of the most beautiful areas I’ve ever been to. 
 70/55 today not too bad. 

Central WA is great too.  Really hard to beat the scenery of either place.

[ShawniganLake]

East Point PEI has a N wind of 65 gusting to 87.  That’s the strongest I see on Land. 

[snow_wizard]

Week two continues to look a lot troughier for us on this GFS run.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

East Point PEI has a N wind of 65 gusting to 87.  That’s the strongest I see on Land. 

Is that right on the coast or inland a bit?  If right on the coast that isn't too crazy.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is that right on the coast or inland a bit?  If right on the coast that isn't too crazy.

Don’t know how close to the ocean the sensor is but that is a very exposed location. 
 

confederation bridge is gusting to 83mph

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Don’t know how close to the ocean the sensor is but that is a very exposed location. 
 

confederation bridge is gusting to 83mph

Sounds about like our Columbus Day storm.  I thought it would be worse.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sounds about like our Columbus Day storm.  I thought it would be worse.

Still ramping up around PEI. Confederation Bridge is now 80 gusting to 96

[Frontal Snowsquall]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I hope they tried to do something to help the horses that are there.  Could be awful for them.

Apparently 4 people, 3 Parks Canada staff and 1 researcher stayed behind and are on the island with all the horses. Looks like the wild horses have built up good genetics over the centuries they have been on the island and have been through this before so they know what to do and take care of each other. They will be able to seek shelter in the lee of the taller sand dunes. Hoping everyone on the island survives.  

 

[TacomaWx]

40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Central WA is great too.  Really hard to beat the scenery of either place.

IMO central Oregon is much more interesting. Central Washington is cool but it’s just amazing what you can see along Highway 97…some incredible geological works of art. 

[ShawniganLake]

Sable island hit 75mph gusts but hasn’t reported the past 2 hrs. Confederation bridge now gusting to 103mph. 
 

Seas off of Nova Scotia were forecast to reach 43 feet. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Apparently 4 people, 3 Parks Canada staff and 1 researcher stayed behind and are on the island with all the horses. Looks like the wild horses have built up good genetics over the centuries they have been on the island and have been through this before so they know what to do and take care of each other. They will be able to seek shelter in the lee of the taller sand dunes. Hoping everyone on the island survives.  

 

Those people on that island have got to be freaked out right now.  I hope they live to tell about it.

BTW...it technically isn't Fiona any longer.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sable island hit 75mph gusts but hasn’t reported the past 2 hrs. Confederation bridge now gusting to 103mph. 
 

Seas off of Nova Scotia were forecast to reach 43 feet. 

That's getting up there to say the least.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

IMO central Oregon is much more interesting. Central Washington is cool but it’s just amazing what you can see along Highway 97…some incredible geological works of art. 

Yeah...they have very interesting volcanic features there.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sable island hit 75mph gusts but hasn’t reported the past 2 hrs. Confederation bridge now gusting to 103mph. 
 

Seas off of Nova Scotia were forecast to reach 43 feet. 

 

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's getting up there to say the least.

The worst is yet to come unfortunately.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

A brave Canadian!  

 

[snow_wizard]

The last two control runs on the GFS ensemble have been pretty crazy.

[ShawniganLake]

Prince Edward Island is likely getting the worst of the storm now.  The confederation bridge is now gusting to 112mph.  Sounds like a ton of trees are coming down across the island 

[snow_wizard]

Nice improvement on the 0z EPS.  This is the change from the 12z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Green Gables is gonna get wrecked.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Prince Edward Island is likely getting the worst of the storm now.  The confederation bridge is now gusting to 112mph.  Sounds like a ton of trees are coming down across the island 

Prince Edward Island has never seen anything like this before. Once in a century storm for this region. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 46F. Glad I don't live on Prince Edward Island right now.

[T-Town]

6 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

A brave Canadian!  

 

Make Canada Great Again!!

[T-Town]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last two times we have gone have been in the fall and it is really nice after Labor Day IMO. Especially during the week, things can get pretty crowded in the summer sometimes. 

Same. We went in mid-October a few years ago and had sun and highs around 70. Great for all the outdoor activities in the area. 
 

I would like to figure out how to spend the month of September in Bend and work remotely from there. I know people do that kind of thing but I can’t pay the nightly rate on an Airbnb for 30 nights. 

[ShawniganLake]

Fiona set a Canadian record for lowest pressure on land. 931.6mb at Hart Island.  

[Timmy]

The 06z gets fall started

[Rubus Leucodermis]

53 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The 06z gets fall started

At this point, enough runs of enough models are saying we should have a pattern change at about the same time as the month rolls over that I will be surprised if we don’t. (Plus, climo says we are due for one.)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Those people on that island have got to be freaked out right now.  I hope they live to tell about it.

BTW...it technically isn't Fiona any longer.

Actually, it still is Fiona… Hurricane Fiona is what it technically no longer is. It is now post-tropical storm Fiona.

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Actually, it still is Fiona… Hurricane Fiona is what it technically no longer is. It is now post-tropical storm Fiona.

I was wondering if that might be the case.  I knew for sure it wasn't considered a hurricane any longer.

[snow_wizard]

Big changes on the ensembles last night.  The 0z EPS, 0z GEFS, and 6z GEFS are all much more bullish for some action and -PNA for week 2.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Big changes on the ensembles last night.  The 0z EPS, 0z GEFS, and 6z GEFS are all much more bullish for some action and -PNA for week 2.

Apparently Jesse doesn't want the weather to change now.  Weird!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Apparently Jesse doesn't want the weather to change now.  Weird!

Pretty sure its about you intent on jinxing any change.     

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is about 25 degrees warmer for next Saturday than its 06Z run.    Some rain does move in Sunday though.  

But that is how the backing off has been happening in the models for the last few weeks... one day at a time once it gets within 7 days.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM and 12Z ICON completely cut off that trough coming in next weekend and put a ridge over the PNW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEM and 12Z ICON completely cut off that trough coming in next weekend and put a ridge over the PNW.

I am not focusing so much on any individual run so much as collective model consensus, which really has been building for a pattern change around the same time as the month rolls over.