Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: 850s fall of a cliff! Weathermodles is stuck at hour 174... alright so it's not so great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Nope I’m in the purpley grayish blueish color…I don’t know that that color is but it’s not green and that is all that matters! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 2010!!! I like that one! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Looks great! Where do we sign to lock this in? 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 MossyMan we gonna be bros the next couple weeks k? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Snownerd3000 said: Looks great! Where do we sign to lock this in? No one move. It might disturb the atmosphere. 2 1 2 1 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Block looks kinda funky, but the hammer sure drops at day 8. 516 thicknesses for PDX and 510 near BLI at hour 198. 4 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Actually here's a better view 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Nope Yup 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 I want to know where that next low is going to hit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 A lot of the maps that have been posted recently seem to be for wet, sloppy snowfalls that reach the lowlands primarily because of precip intensity dragging the snow level down. 2 1 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: A lot of the maps that have been posted recently seem to be for wet, sloppy snowfalls that reach the lowlands primarily because of precip intensity dragging the snow level down. Sounds about right for early December. 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: No one move. It might disturb the atmosphere. Yeah, what do they say about the weather weenie effect? Something like if someone in Seattle gets too excited about the possibility of snow it causes a chain reaction that can lead to all the cold air being shunted east of the Rockies? 1 3 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 10" Kuchera total, 7" snow depth IMBY. I'd take that for an early season marginal event. A bit chilly at times too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 59 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I feel like this is going to be the best Euro run yet... and Rob will sleep through it No he won't. lol. Colder run in the mid range. Incredible potential ahead Day 6+ and I wouldn't be surprised if the hammer drops on us the new few runs. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Nov1985 said: 10" Kuchera total, 7" snow depth IMBY. I'd take that for an early season marginal event. A bit chilly at times too. I don't use Kuchera unless Temps are in the 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 One thing I always notice about the 500mb pattern in these situations. If a ridge is just a little too far east for us it can sit undisturbed for days delivering cold and snow for the intermountain west and northern Rockies. Whenever it’s in the sweet spot for more of a direct hit in the western lowlands there is pretty always a little ULL or something that spins up upstream and screws everything up for a region wide blast. I’m guessing it has to do with short waves gaining energy as they encounter maritime air and becoming overstrengthened? It always feels like threading such an impossible needle to get true arctic air region wide. It’s amazing it happened as often as it did 1990 and before. 5 2 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: I don't use Kuchera unless Temps are in the 20s Well I'd take the 10:1 14" total too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Often with a low that comes down from Vancouver Island, this will lead to lower snow totals in the area in red (the south puget sound). Will be interesting to watch going forward! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Sounds about right for early December. Historically early December can be a good period for us. We’re almost to the point where it’s really not much worse than any other part of winter. 4 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Often with a low that comes down from Vancouver Island, this will lead to lower snow totals in the area in red (the south puget sound). Will be interesting to watch going forward! The lows and highs and maps colors will change for sures. But at least we have something to watch in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Incoming at hour 240! 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: One thing I always notice about the 500mb pattern in these situations. If a ridge is just a little too far east for us it can sit undisturbed for days delivering cold and snow for the intermountain west and northern Rockies. Whenever it’s in the sweet spot for more of a direct hit in the western lowlands there is pretty always a little ULL or something that spins up upstream and screws everything up for a region wide blast. I’m guessing it has to do with short waves gaining energy as they encounter maritime air and becoming overstrengthened? It always feels like threading such an impossible needle to get true arctic air region wide. It’s amazing it happened as often as it did 1990 and before. Then all summer we get these hysterically massive ridges that just lumber in and totally dominate the pattern for weeks. There was a time when cold air was able to throw its weight around like that too. 2 2 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Nov1985 said: The lows and highs and maps colors will change for sures. But at least we have something to watch in early December. Oh it will Fosho! Wasn’t trying to be a weenie. Just interesting how much the low placement effects snow totals so drastically because of the Olympics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Yeah, what do they say about the weather weenie effect? Something like if someone in Seattle gets too excited about the possibility of snow it causes a chain reaction that can lead to all the cold air being shunted east of the Rockies? Or... All at once, a million weenies cried out into the cold November night, releasing whirls and swirls of breath that blossomed into a towering column of air. Into the abyss rushed a backdoor cold blast, frigid Arctic air howling through the Cascade gaps. The haters gasped, silenced once and for all. 2 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Oh it will Fosho! Wasn’t trying to be a weenie. Just interesting how much the low placement effects snow totals so drastically because of the Olympics The snow shadow and east wind drying (my area) should be banned from Western WA snow events. Just sayin' they aren't fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Often with a low that comes down from Vancouver Island, this will lead to lower snow totals in the area in red (the south puget sound). Will be interesting to watch going forward! Too early to worry about it much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 00z runs are going to be potential jaw droppers tonight. MBG 18z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Nov1985 said: The snow shadow and east wind drying (my area) should be banned from Western WA snow events. Just sayin' they aren't fair. Don’t move to Whatcom County or the BC Lower Mainland if you can’t stand dry outflow eating snow before it can reach the ground. It is a specialty of this area; the downside of having easier access to the outflow. 4 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 I'm starting to get that feeling. My confidence is increasing. .... Sounds like a Depends commercial. But seriously. We're right on the edge of this turning into something special, big league stuff. 00z GFS in 8 hours 18 minutes 00z ECMWF in 10 hours 28 minutes 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 (edited) We really need to create a map that shows all the micro climates that western Washington has. Maybe we could take a topographical map and overlay that with data from the the NWS????? Edited November 23, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I'm starting to get that feeling. My confidence is increasing. .... Sounds like a Depends commercial. But seriously. We're right on the edge of this turning into something special, big league stuff. 00z GFS in 8 hours 18 minutes 00z ECMWF in 10 hours 28 minutes Cold 850s on this run! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 EPS 850s at hr 138 look a tiny better 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 EPS colder again in the mid range. The trend continues! Hell yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: We really need to create a map that shows all the micro climates that western Washington has. Maybe we could take a topographical map and overall that with data from the the NWS????? It would be a pretty complex map that would have to be zoomable. Elevation would probably be the biggest single factor. 4 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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