November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

lol

It got that cold in Nov 2010, and actually earlier than this.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[snow_wizard]

Just now, T-Town said:

Time to issue some yellow cards for dissent. 

It's just that people put blinders on to the 75% of the stuff that looks good in favor of the maybe 25% that doesn't.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It got that cold in Nov 2010, and actually earlier than this.

November 2006 also comes to mind. The coldest it got here was 12 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

But that low in Tacoma is totally reasonable and will come to fruition. Ask Jim. 

It's possible.  Probably overdone though.  Just because it may not drop to 4 doesn't mean 14 is unreasonable.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's just that people put blinders on to the 75% of the stuff that looks good in favor of the maybe 25% that doesn't.

In the believable range, last week's cold nights were more impressive than what's being shown on the GFS, which looks seasonably cool with nights that are slightly warmer than that.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

November 2006 also comes to mind. The coldest it got here was 12 

I had 8 here in 2010.  It dropped that low by about 10pm.  After that the clouds moved in.

[TacomaWx]

This could still work out it’s just not as certain as it seemed 24 hours ago. Worst case scenario which is probably the op euro run there will likely still be some lowland snow in some places atleast and some decent cold with highs in the mid 30s for a few days. Best case scenario could be a good event like on the gfs. Sometimes people get lost in the perspective of thinking the best case model runs are going to happen. Then the finer details come into focus which is still a  pretty good event but not as good as we hoped. 

[Nov1985]

The 18Z is trying to recreate the 1985 magic low from Alaska. It just needs to strengthen and stall west of the Olympics to Astoria. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

In the believable range, last week's cold nights were more impressive than what's being shown.

I will say that you might have a harder road to hoe that far south with this.  I think you still have a good shot though.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's just that people put blinders on to the 75% of the stuff that looks good in favor of the maybe 25% that doesn't.

You preaching anything to anyone about blinders is Heeeeelarious.

[Weiner Warrior]

Just going to stay 11 degree the rest of the winter.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

This could still work out it’s just not as certain as it seemed 24 hours ago. Worst case scenario which is probably the op euro run there will likely still be some lowland snow in some places atleast and some decent cold with highs in the mid 30s for a few days. Best case scenario could be a good event like on the gfs. Sometimes people get lost in the perspective of thinking the best case model runs are going to happen. Then the finer details come into focus which is still a  pretty good event but not as good as we hoped. 

I agree.  The jumping off for no reason is what gets me worked up.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

True story: I played youth soccer for 7 years. One game I had 4 goals, and my attempt at a fifth went off the crossbar. I was so mad I kicked the ball over a fence into a field and in a cussing tirade. LOL. GoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My son played for several years and enjoyed it, but for me growing up in the south, soccer was not an option. It is a lot more popular down there now.  I got into it through some friends here in Bellingham in 2006-2007 and have been playing ever since (I am 50 now).

 

It always cracks me up when people say that soccer players are not athletes.  The pros run up to 10 miles a match and that is filled with lots of sprints and turns/cuts.  They also play at least 32-33 matches a year, more for side/international competitions.

I used to play striker but my knees gave out so I play keeper now.  That has its own physical demands in being willing to put your body on the line to stop a ball coming at you at up to 60mph (the pros crack them up towards 80mph), or holding your ground against a player sprinting towards you.  With my 6'3" 270# frame its usually a losing proposition for the opposing player but I have gotten my clock cleaned a time or 2.  In the leagues up here in Whatcom County, the over 30 divisions that play year round, which works out to about 30-32 matches a year.  You start to feel it by mid-October.

We had a player on our team who finally hung up his cleats at age 72.  He wasn't fast, nor could he kick the ball very far, but he knew what the opposing player was going to do with the ball (and how to defend against it) before that player even got the ball passed to him.  You usually put very skilled, fast players in the center mid position.  We put that 72 year old guy in that position and nothing got past him!

 

 

On the weather side of things, looks like we are going to finish this AR with .93" in the rain bucket, current temp is 41.

 

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's possible.  Probably overdone though.  Just because it may not drop to 4 doesn't mean 14 is unreasonable.

The problem with the map is that it shows 3 in Tacoma and 24 in Victoria and 22 in Vancouver.  I suppose it's the Frazer outflow winds keeping the temps up but I doubt there would be that much of a difference.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I will say that you might have a harder road to hoe that far south with this.  I think you still have a good shot though.

Nah, but at least it'll be nice to be cooler than the inferno that was last summer.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

You preaching anything to anyone about blinders is Heeeeelarious.

Perhaps.  On the other hand more things look good than don't right now.

[gusky]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree.  The jumping off for no reason is what gets me worked up.

I even get happy at medium range when models trend a bit down, cause it can be a sign of models converging on a more realistic outcome.

[Kolk1604]

This is awesome. Can they upgrade it now so we can settle this model war?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[gusky]

I don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but Cliff is on board with cold and says conditions will be *close* to perfect for lowland snow
Cliff Mass Weather Blog 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Good luck, Washingtonians. I would like my chances if I were you. Hopefully this doesn’t end up like December of last year when the arctic boundary hung up just north of the state border and we ended up with unimpressive temps and a few flakes. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, gusky said:

I even get happy at medium range when models trend a bit down, cause it can be a sign of models converging on a more realistic outcome.

I expect a meeting in the middle which would be quite good for many of us.  Right now the ECMWF is well outnumbered.  Even its solution isn't terrible BTW.

As for the ECMWF it has had a bias of pushing too much energy SW for eons now.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

This is awesome. Can they upgrade it now so we can settle this model war?

 

I hope they fix that bias of pushing energy too far SW in some situations.  Maybe it's easier said than done. BTW...they are upgrading the GFS too.  Touche!  

[Cloud]

More than half a foot mean over the next 10 days?

Don't see any problems here.  

[snow_wizard]

Down to 39 now.  Wasn't expecting that.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) .... Maybe trying to follow the op run digging the arctic trough similarly? Probably not.

[HuskyMaestro]

The takes I’m seeing about fútbol on here. Oof. A lot of soccer is calculated slower 4D chess that happens on and off the field. How you could draw and still advance into the next round, how you could lose a game yet still *win* because you won on aggregate. Kind of like baseball but with a timer. My gripe with FIFA, UEFA, or the big soccer heads are that they are insanely corrupt though. 

Dare I say soccer has the chance to become real popular in the US by maybe 2030-35 with how aggressive its marketing has been, the success of recent MLS wins (go Sounders!), demographic shifts with Latin Americans moving and becoming US citizens, the World Cup in 2026 being held across North America, and the US tying against Pengland and the chance to advance into the next round? This can get huge. 

One of the Big 4 sports can be replaced if soccer plays it right. Football and basketball are forever king, but let’s see if MLB and NHL can compete long term. Maybe the pressure can get Manfred to actually care about baseball. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Onshore Flo is kicking up down here, but it's still in the 70s. I'm not buying her insurance.

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

More than half a foot mean over the next 10 days?

Don't see any problems here.  

Thats more than last night's 00z run 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GEFS Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) .... Maybe trying to follow the op run digging the arctic trough similarly? Probably not.

The GEFS has actually been quite cold.

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

More than half a foot mean over the next 10 days?

Don't see any problems here.  

Should be fine up there if EURO is overdoing the SW digging-- I can understand the consternations down here, though.

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Down to 39 now.  Wasn't expecting that.

Snow level dropping quick. Was not expecting upper 30s here at 3pm.
 

That’s a good sign!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) trough definitely digging more like the Op. Hmmm!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Requiem said:

Should be fine up there if EURO is overdoing the SW digging-- I can understand the consternations down here, though.

I think you still have a decent shot.

[Kolk1604]

18z NBM is on the extreme side for snow

[Gradient Keeper]

One day the 18z GEFS inside of Day 5 will be correct. 18z GEFS also known as the collection of or room full of 30 Drunk Uncles, perhaps Inebriated In-laws.

[Deweydog]

4cast contest???

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

18z NBM is on the extreme side for snow

That is really good news!  I'm liking the enhancement in the Central Puget Sound area.