MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Tomorrow night could be good one. It doesn't look very impressive on the meso models for some reason. But a low approaching like that is the sweet spot for the Puget Sound and south. 4 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Day 4 (4-run trend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Not sure what it means for out here... but it looks like its turned to rain now at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit on I-90 at about 900 feet. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Mark Nelsen is not as negative about our chances anymore! Another cold upper trough drops down offshore Friday and spins up another wet frontal system. Models are all over the place on this one. The normally cold GFS thinks we’ve got a snow and then ice storm Friday night into Saturday morning. The ECMWF is much drier and has the system farther offshore. But it IS cold enough with a strong easterly Gorge wind that moisture would be in the form of snow/ice. So Friday evening/night is another possible “event” I’m watching closely. There is also plenty of cold/dry arctic air lingering just north of us through early next week. That means at any time some of that could get pulled south and interact with Pacific moisture as we’re seeing this evening. Winter is here for the forecasters and it’s busy! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: I trust the GFS for the Seattle/Tacoma area much more tomorrow night since the air mass will be colder and all the models agree on that. Definitely not the same situation as today at all. Gotta get some more agreement on how much precip we’re working with though. The euro doesn’t show as much precip as some other models do. FWIW the cmc stepped up their total snowfall but there’s a sharp cutoff south of king county unlike the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I trust the GFS for the Seattle/Tacoma area much more tomorrow night since the air mass will be colder and all the models agree on that. It’s putting out these temps…. This won’t happen 2 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thickhog Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said: Would be nice to get the euro on board for this. Super marginal. I’m guessing that PDX metro gets shut out while the west hills and maybe the eastside get a couple inches. Forest Grove could do well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doinko said: This Would be really nice Gorge wind starts blowing keeping us cool enough for snow. Starts out marginal, I hope we don't have something like a repeat of 2/9/2019 Just feels like we will be too warm, especially west metro. Not feeling this one... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, KingstonWX said: This bust was bigger than most but I can't help but feel like there's always a bust (just not this big) to start the season, then everyone downplays the models when they predict snow afterwards, only to see some of us get shocked when something verifies and people get surprised in the middle of a commute or workday. It's fascinating how finicky our microclimates are here in the PNW and how difficult this can be, but I'm excited to see what's next. It doesn't help that our snow events almost always seem to be incredibly borderline. The bust potential is crazy high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 JFC, just was issued another winter weather advisory. Dropped ot down to 2 additional inches by tomorrow 4pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Not sure what it means out here... but it looks like its turned to rain now at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit on I-90 at about 900 feet. What a weird event. I went up to 30 briefly and just dropped back down to 29. Blowing snow. Might be right on the edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Mark Nelsen is not as negative about our chances anymore! Another cold upper trough drops down offshore Friday and spins up another wet frontal system. Models are all over the place on this one. The normally cold GFS thinks we’ve got a snow and then ice storm Friday night into Saturday morning. The ECMWF is much drier and has the system farther offshore. But it IS cold enough with a strong easterly Gorge wind that moisture would be in the form of snow/ice. So Friday evening/night is another possible “event” I’m watching closely. There is also plenty of cold/dry arctic air lingering just north of us through early next week. That means at any time some of that could get pulled south and interact with Pacific moisture as we’re seeing this evening. Winter is here for the forecasters and it’s busy! This makes me feel better. I put a lot of stock in Mark's analysis. Really need euro to get on board tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cloud Posted November 30, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Uh huh…. 1 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: This was also our biggest November snowfall since 2010 as well. 2017 and 2014 only had 1/2” an inch. Big November snow just isn’t very common and even modest events only come around every 5 years or so it seems. That has always been the case. Even way back it was erratic in November. Sometimes we get a really big one though. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 'bout 3 1/4", was 1.75" sometime around 5pm. Snow is lighter for the moment. 31.6°/31.1° 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Day 5 (4-run trend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: What a weird event. I went up to 30 briefly and just dropped back down to 29. Blowing snow. Might be right on the edge. On the night of 2/11/19 it turned to rain at Snoqualmie Ridge and took another 12 hours before it stopped snowing in North Bend just 6 miles away. There ended up being much more snow 500 feet lower in North Bend. 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillJimmy Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Only got a dusting here this morning, changed to rain quickly. Excited to see what tomorrow night brings! Hopefully will see a couple inches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doinko said: Mark Nelsen is not as negative about our chances anymore! Another cold upper trough drops down offshore Friday and spins up another wet frontal system. Models are all over the place on this one. The normally cold GFS thinks we’ve got a snow and then ice storm Friday night into Saturday morning. The ECMWF is much drier and has the system farther offshore. But it IS cold enough with a strong easterly Gorge wind that moisture would be in the form of snow/ice. So Friday evening/night is another possible “event” I’m watching closely. There is also plenty of cold/dry arctic air lingering just north of us through early next week. That means at any time some of that could get pulled south and interact with Pacific moisture as we’re seeing this evening. Winter is here for the forecasters and it’s busy! Sounds really interesting now. The other day I believe he said there would be no cold east wind for the week ahead. I'm glad that changed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: It’s putting out these temps…. This won’t happen This thing is really messed up. Add 10 degrees to those. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CliffMassYelledAtMe Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Is that Santa or the 18z GFS? Would explain why an inch or 2 of snow seems like it is 20 when it's up to his nose (but his nose is in the ground). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 I-5 looks insane in Shoreline. So close yet so far for Seattle tonight. 7 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: This thing is really messed up. Add 10 degrees to those. How many more degrees should we add to Friday morning with the single digits readings? 20? 🫣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: It is seriously a worthless model.... It still makes the hairs on my legs stand up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, bainbridgekid said: I-5 looks insane in Shoreline. So close yet so far for Seattle tonight. Wow! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted November 30, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 And the rain just turned to puking snow. 33.2 10 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: Uh huh…. Cool so in agreement with the 12z Thanksgiving Euro. November 2006, I worked in those conditions so it is possible 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: Uh huh…. 850s at -8 -9 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 800 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022 WAZ556-301200- /O.EXA.KSEW.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-221201T0000Z/ Bellevue and Vicinity- including Bellevue, Bothell, Kenmore, Mill Creek, Clearview, Kirkland, Newcastle, Redmond, Sammamish, and Issaquah 800 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. * WHERE...Bellevue and vicinity, including Mill Creek, Kenmore, Kirkland, and Issaquah. * WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions in Washington state, call 5 1 1. 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: Uh huh…. If there is snow on the ground and it's clear I could see the upper teens being possible. No matter what we have several days of cold weather coming up. We are on a roll right now. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 800 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022 WAZ556-301200- /O.EXA.KSEW.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-221201T0000Z/ Bellevue and Vicinity- including Bellevue, Bothell, Kenmore, Mill Creek, Clearview, Kirkland, Newcastle, Redmond, Sammamish, and Issaquah 800 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. * WHERE...Bellevue and vicinity, including Mill Creek, Kenmore, Kirkland, and Issaquah. * WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions in Washington state, call 5 1 1. URGENT! 1" of snow 1 2 5 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: On the night of 2/11/19 it turned to rain at Snoqualmie Ridge and took another 12 hours before it stopped snowing in North Bend. There ended up being much more snow 500 feet lower in North Bend. The beauty of microclimates. Washington is dull 90+% of the time but pretty cool when we get these dynamic events. Thanks for sharing! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: And the rain just turned to puking snow. 33.2 How was Randy getting rain when it's snowing in south SnoCo? Crazy stuff going on. 4 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Cool so in agreement with the 12z Thanksgiving Euro. November 2006, I worked in those conditions so it is possible Next frame at 4am actually shows it down to 6. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Day 6 (4-run trend) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, jakerepp said: URGENT! 1" of snow It might be more! NWS has been indecisive with this event. Heaviest banding is just beginning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said: Would be nice to get the euro on board for this. Low is in as good of a spot as we could ask for, at least. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: If there is snow on the ground and it's clear I could see the upper teens being possible. No matter what we have several days of cold weather coming up. We are on a roll right now. The problem is that the GFS (and the Euro to some extent) seems to really be overdoing the surface cooling from snow. Recently if the model thinks there's snow on the ground the temperatures are 10-15 degrees cooler than other locations. I've been noticing it on the models for the last couple weeks. So the GFS assumes there will be snow on the ground and automatically drops the temperatures to the single digits or low teens. 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, BLI snowman said: Low is in as good of a spot as we could ask for, at least. Ideally it would move toward shore a bit and then stall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 This looks like it means business. Shoreline to Stanwood looks to continue to get nailed as long as this stays snow. 4 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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