Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 9:31 PM 00z ECMWF Begins in.... 14 minutes (9:45 PM) King EURO time. Based on statistical analysis I estimate there is a ~27% chance of an improved run, and I base that on I like to make up numbers to sound smart. Nah, but anytime the models show a big amplified ridge/block to develop over the Gulf of Alaska and we have bitter cold on our side of the pole, then we stand a chance for a cold or arctic air pattern. It all depends on the placement and tilt of the block. C'MON!!!! Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Early November 2017 was a little more impressive than this event for my area. Currently 29.5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Night shift tonight Rob? 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Winterdog said: Your clouds are just about to run over me. Still open sky and 28.6 here but soon to go up. Hey there! How did your place fair with the windstorm? 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, MossMan said: Temp up to 35. Was 30 two hours ago. Stupid clouds. Got down to 30.2˚F here before the clouds came in. Now 32.5˚F. Boo! 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Night shift tonight Rob? I'm not sure. Are you going to be around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Hey there! How did your place fair with the windstorm? Jesse will be happy to know that the top 15 feet of my sick hemlock broke off. One other alder came down but lots of debris everywhere. Somehow we never had a power outage of more than 20 seconds, but lots of them. Did I ever tell you I hate wind? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: I think we picked the right time for a Florida vacation... tropical storm is gone before we get there and next week is day after day of coast to coast cold except for Florida. I think Jared mentioned that its been a long time since its been cold across the entire country. I hope you have a wonderful trip! 1 1 1 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 9:31 PM 00z ECMWF Begins in.... 14 minutes (9:45 PM) King EURO time. Based on statistical analysis I estimate there is a ~27% chance of an improved run, and I base that on I like to make up numbers to sound smart. Nah, but anytime the models show a big amplified ridge/block to develop over the Gulf of Alaska and we have bitter cold on our side of the pole, then we stand a chance for a cold or arctic air pattern. It all depends on the placement and tilt of the block. C'MON!!!! Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!! There is a 69% chance your analysis is accurate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I'm not sure. Are you going to be around? I'll do my best. Hopefully me being up for it will give us some eye candy 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) 48hr Rainfall totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selkirks Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said: Back to those silly Canucks! Day 8.5 I don't mind this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 33 minutes ago, Winterdog said: Jesse will be happy to know that the top 15 feet of my sick hemlock broke off. One other alder came down but lots of debris everywhere. Somehow we never had a power outage of more than 20 seconds, but lots of them. Did I ever tell you I hate wind? Wow considering that nearly 70% of Snohomish Co was without power at once point I would say you got very lucky! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) 72hr Rainfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 more reasonable cold shots on the 0z GFS where 850s drop to -5 or so. Shaping up to be a solidly cold month with SEA already running below -5 for the month to date. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Wow considering that nearly 70% of Snohomish Co was without power at once point I would say you got very lucky! Yeah and oddly enough, usually our power goes out every time a deer farts. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 I wonder what the rain lovers on here would have thought of 1936-37. November a lot like this and then a cold and snowy winter, but quite dry. We always get rain. I think it's cool to be getting something different. 1 1 1 1 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, selkirks said: I don't mind this Kind of an understatement! 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 LOL the comments 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Hmmm..... Can we just appreciate that mega massive block.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: LOL the comments Looks like Florida took a few Viagra pills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 7 That dumb little cut-off low near Brookings is weird, and dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Definitely has potential. What's cool is all 3 models are giving us the same super ridge. The extent of retrograde is the question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 7 850s +10c over PDX this fuels strong east winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 8 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 9'er another arse ugly run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 PNA is forecast to go slightly positive next week... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 28 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: LOL the comments 1 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 I had flakes falling from the sky two years ago this evening. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 The good news about tonight's model runs is they actually show some form of precipitation over us in the next 10 days. Well, the GFS doesn't, but it kind of gets there by day 16... Other than that it looks pretty darn boring. Oh, and it's 37F currently after dropping below 30F earlier this evening. 43/25 day with full sun is pretty respectable for second week of November. 1 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 It does turn wet after Day 9'er, and there is a lot of east wind on this run. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Severely cloudy here. Temp has risen to 30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 28 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Severely cloudy here. Temp has risen to 30. That's cold for being cloudy. It got cloudy here a couple of hours ago and the temp has barely risen. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 37 here in Troutdale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Looks like the MJO is going to strengthen again and possibly loop back through the region that is favorable for GOA blocking. Also...no sign of the Nina weakening that has been predicted by many. SSTs and subsurface remain steady and well below normal. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Down to 31F. Freeze #2. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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