November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said:

PNA is slightly positive unfortunately. 

The blocking is going to move around.  We want either TANKED PNA or any kind of minus PNA with minus EPO.  PNA forecasts are mostly near neutral or minus.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 36 already.

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol yeah f*ck Kroger did not want to deal with working for a company like that anymore. I actually get to be outside all the time now which I love don’t want to be in a building/warehouse all day. 

My wife’s aunt recently retired from FM and had NOTHING good to say. Don’t know any details but she’s not a fan.

On the other hand, I remember one time going to FM (December 2003 maybe?) with no snow falling and no snow on the ground. When I came out it was snowing and sticking! That may have been pre-Kroger though?

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My wife’s aunt recently retired from FM and had NOTHING good to say. Don’t know any details but she’s not a fan.

On the other hand, I remember one time going to FM (December 2003 maybe?) with no snow falling and no snow on the ground. When I came out it was snowing and sticking! That may have been pre-Kroger though?

Nah 1998

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Nah 1998

Dec 2003 did have snow.  It was late month leading up to the good stuff in early Jan 2004.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dare I ask why 2014 is even being brought up as any kind of analog to this year.

If we're talking about analogs I think 1936 needs to be mentioned.

A little touchy.

SEA NWS post talked about long dry spells in November and 2000 and 2014 were on top.   I just mentioned that both winters were splitty and dry.   Nothing about analogs.    But it wouldn't be the first time someone one here made a looooong stretch to create an analog.     

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Nah 1998

D**n. I was a winter weather sell out.

[Snownerd3000]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dare I ask why 2014 is even being brought up as any kind of analog to this year.

If we're talking about analogs I think 1936 needs to be mentioned.

What was 36 like? 

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What was 36 like? 

He aint that old

[Skagit Weather]

5 hours ago, North_County said:

Since the models are pretty quiet right now, I wanted to ask a question in the form of a story. And it feels somewhat timely, with the one-year anniversary of the flood that nearly wiped out my town less than a week away. My apologies in advance if this gets a bit long. Keep scrolling if you're not interested.

Anyway, I knew the base details of my dad's evacuation to higher ground even before the waters had stopped rising, because I was in text communication with my mom. My grandmother had been staying with them for the previous week since she had just been released from the hospital and needed the help of my mother (a retired nurse) administering medication. As I'll get to later, this probably saved my mom's life. We have about 16 hours from overflow at Everson to floodwaters reaching Sumas. The night before the flood hit, knowing it was imminent, my parents made the decision that my mom would take my grandma right away to Lynden, while my dad stayed home continuing to raise and save what he could, because they knew it would be impossible to evacuate my grandma if it came to that. After a full night of working, worrying and praying, floodwater hit like a freight train; a fitting metaphor since a dozen rail cars were derailed and knocked over by the force of the water. I've heard from city officials that they estimate water rose as much as 3 feet in 5 minutes in some parts of town. From my experience, this is probably accurate. At my house, relatively higher than much of town, we went from "hey look, it's trickling down the street," to "it's coming down from the backyard," to "crap, we gotta find a way to move the cars even higher," to "if this doesn't stop soon, it will be in the house" all in the span of what seemed like 10 minutes. For my dad, whose house sits much lower (they eventually lost almost everything with more than 3 feet of water in the house), he was faced with the realization that the water was flowing so fast and so deep, and became worried if he waited too long he wouldn't even be able to be evacuated.  He threw on his chest waders, trudged through waist deep water, and was eventually pulled into a boat to be taken to safety. I knew all of this already, but I always kind of suspected there was more to the story. My dad is proud, and I could tell he was holding back.

Just this week, I found out from my mom that several months later, he finally admitted to her how bad it had gotten. After fleeing the house, he got to the end of the driveway, less than 30 feet from his front door, and immediately realized he had made a mistake. The water wasn't waist deep. It was chest deep, nearly to his neck, and flowing like a river. He reached out for whatever he could find, the nearby utility pole, and pulled himself up, wrapping his arms and legs around it while he hung on for, literally, his dear life. It was between 30 minutes and an hour before help came in the form of a rescuer on a flat-bottomed boat that spotted him from the end of the street. In that time, he was mentally preparing himself for what he felt was inevitable, saying his goodbyes in his head. The rescuers had to pry his hands apart, he was gripping the power pole so hard. My dad is a fit man, but he is closer to 70 than he is to 60. He almost became our town's only fatality. I'm convinced, now that I know the details, that my mom would have died (and possibly my dad as well trying to save her) if she had tried to evacuate with him, rather than leaving the night before like she did.

Congratulations, you made it this far. Now for the question.  Like everyone else in this forum, severe weather excites me. We wouldn't waste so much time here if it didn't. But at the same time, I intuitively know that severe weather oftentimes brings with it fear, panic, destruction and death. I love hot, dry weather in the summer, but I know it can result in wildfires for some. Ice and snowstorms cause deadly accidents. Windstorms cause trees to fall, resulting in damage and death. Tornadoes, hurricanes, all more of the same. I have been fascinated with floods for as long as I can remember. I did my sixth grade science project on floods, and my mom had to put a hard limit on how many times I was allowed to call the automated flood gage hotline,  a number I knew by heart. So how do you all balance in your minds your excitement about extreme weather with the knowledge that those same conditions cause suffering and heartbreak for others? I struggle with this dilemma significantly, even more so over the past year. It's why I had to take a break from the forum the last half of last winter, because I couldn't deal with the internal confliction anymore.

Anyway, that was a lot. Thanks for reading, and thanks for letting me vent for a minute. This is a stressful time for my family and my community, and so many memories are getting stirred up. And I am genuinely interested in how you all deal with this.

For me I like to keep in mind that there is absolutely nothing anyone can do that will have an impact on the weather. I mean, maybe someone could detonate a couple nukes which might make things a little cold, but other than that, no matter what you feel about the extreme weather, it's not going to change the outcome.

As others have mentioned the people who are most passionate about extreme/dangerous weather are the ones who tend to have the greatest impact on the people who are affected by the weather. They are the storm chasers and meteorologists and scientists who save lives with their forecasts.

I think it would be different if you have either an active role in causing suffering, or if it's at least human caused. For example, if you control the salaries of your employees and enjoy watching them suffer through extremely hard work with limited pay while you rake in the cash, it definitely seems a little more questionable. Or even war I think occupies a different space. I can't imagine actively rooting for a violent war to break out (having interest in previous wars as discussed earlier is a different matter), even if you personally have little impact on it.

And I don't think that any extreme weather fanatic is actively rooting for people to die. Instead, they are astonished by the beauty of the extreme and the power of nature. They want to see what Earth is capable of or they want to experience something they've never felt before. But it's also perfectly natural to not have these feelings, especially if you've been impacted by a traumatic event. Freezing rain is probably one of the most beautiful events that can occur, but as you can see there are a bunch of people on here that despise it. So be excited if you want or don't, because unless you're controlling the dials behind the scenes, mother nature doesn't care a whit about your opinion.

[GHweatherChris]

Time for another break from the forum, the toxicity level is rising, yet again....

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Time for another break from the forum, the toxicity level is rising, yet again....

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For me I like to keep in mind that there is absolutely nothing anyone can do that will have an impact on the weather. I mean, maybe someone could detonate a couple nukes which might make things a little cold, but other than that, no matter what you feel about the extreme weather, it's not going to change the outcome.

As others have mentioned the people who are most passionate about extreme/dangerous weather are the ones who tend to have the greatest impact on the people who are affected by the weather. They are the storm chasers and meteorologists and scientists who save lives with their forecasts.

I think it would be different if you have either an active role in causing suffering, or if it's at least human caused. For example, if you control the salaries of your employees and enjoy watching them suffer through extremely hard work with limited pay while you rake in the cash, it definitely seems a little more questionable. Or even war I think occupies a different space. I can't imagine actively rooting for a violent war to break out (having interest in previous wars as discussed earlier is a different matter), even if you personally have little impact on it.

And I don't think that any extreme weather fanatic is actively rooting for people to die. Instead, they are astonished by the beauty of the extreme and the power of nature. They want to see what Earth is capable of or they want to experience something they've never felt before. But it's also perfectly natural to not have these feelings, especially if you've been impacted by a traumatic event. Freezing rain is probably one of the most beautiful events that can occur, but as you can see there are a bunch of people on here that despise it. So be excited if you want or don't, because unless you're controlling the dials behind the scenes, mother nature doesn't care a whit about your opinion.

Well said.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting.  For the first third of November this year and 2000 had the most meridional (cold west/warm east) temperature profile over the US at least since 1980.  One difference though is the core of the coldest anoms are further west this year.  Intriguing when you consider December 2000 had a major cold wave that we were just on the western edge of.  If that had been shifted west a bit it would have been a memorable event for us.

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What was 36 like? 

Hot summer, very dry late summer/autumn, cold snap early November, long period of very dry weather in November.  Ring any bells?

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hot summer, very dry late summer/autumn, cold snap early November, long period of very dry weather in November.  Ring any bells?

lol I think he meant DJF

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

lol I think he meant DJF

Salem saw 25" of snow in one day on 2/1/1937!

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Interesting.  For the first third of November this year and 2000 had the most meridional (cold west/warm east) temperature profile over the US at least since 1980.  One difference though is the core of the coldest anoms are further west this year.  Intriguing when you consider December 2000 had a major cold wave that we were just on the western edge of.  If that had been shifted west a bit it would have been a memorable event for us.

Looking at local records... that was a pretty nice winter.    No long rainy stretches and lots of dry days.    Looks like were a couple snow events out here in my area but well below normal for snowfall.

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Dare I ask why 2014 is even being brought up as any kind of analog to this year.

If we're talking about analogs I think 1936 needs to be mentioned.

I have more snow already than that entire winter!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

GFS wants to give us a backdoor blast.  GEM may be going that direction too.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

GFS wants to give us a backdoor blast.  GEM may be going that direction too.

 

Yeah looks cold. Thanks, I am real late tonight.

[Doinko]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 850s Day 6.5 to 8

[Doinko]

GEM is cold too, subfreezing high to Portland with east winds. And very cold throughout the country

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM 850s

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Looks like Mid February 2001 was ahead of its time. Sounds like every winter now. 

The entire 1985-1996 period was filled with good Februaries.

Just a magical 28 days, and when we're really fortunate... 29.

[BLI snowman]

100 miles west and we're super in business!

 

[Slushy Inch]

I like what I see.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I have more snow already than that entire winter!

That is awesome!   Really glad to see the Sierras buried in snow.

But we also know how streaky it can be down there.    You get a ton of snow and then can't buy a snowflake for months.

[Gradient Keeper]

The WRF-GFS should be real impressive later.

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

lol I think he meant DJF

One of the coldest winters of the 20th century.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The entire 1985-1996 period was filled with good Februaries.

Just a magical 28 days, and when we're really fortunate... 29.

True, but at the same time, SEA only had 1 February with 6"+ snow during that period.

Since 2017, they've had 3, and 2 with 12"+, more than any February back then.

For PDX...four 6"+ Februaries since 2014. 2 in the 1985-1996 period.

[snow_wizard]

Nice looking cold shot on the 0z GFS!  I keep forgetting the models run earlier now.

[AlTahoe]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is awesome!   Really glad to see the Sierras buried in snow.

But we also know how streaky it can be down there.    You get a ton of snow and then can't buy a snowflake for months.

Last season takes the streaky cake. Snowiest December ever! Then the driest Jan - March ever recorded 

[snow_wizard]

This will be a flat out cold month if we get any kind of a major cold shot later with the cold first third already under our belts.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

True, but at the same time, SEA only had 1 February with 6"+ snow during that period.

Since 2017, they've had 3, and 2 with 12"+, more than any February back then.

For PDX...four 6"+ Februaries since 2014. 2 in the 1985-1996 period.

2014 was an amazing event. Blizzard conditions and temps in the teens during the middle of the day in February on 2/6.

[AlTahoe]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This will be a flat out cold month if we get any kind of a major cold shot later with the cold first third already under our belts.

I see the 504 line over Montana. Is that even kind of normal to see in Nov?

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM 850s

That would be interesting to have a shot from the north and one from the east in the same November.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

I see the 504 line over Montana. Is that even kind of normal to see in Nov?

Nope.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good things are coming.