November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Although there is this, the new GFS

as a member of the pink squad I whole heartedly believe this will happen

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think I remember that storm. It was fun. It didn’t surprise me because temperatures were right on the edge so I knew it was a possibility.

I remember the day before we had a raging east wind all day but i didn't know enough then to know about the dry air a** and the massive rain storm moving in. it was in the 40's that day but dewpoint was in the mid teens. we had 8 inches in bremerton.

[Weiner Warrior]

The wishcasting continues

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just about every model is showing a big event out here around the canal. All models show a minimum of a few hrs of heavy wet snow from Olympia north before rain transition.  then another round of snow thursday morning.

[MossMan]

Some fog happening now. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just about every model is showing a big event out here around the canal. All models show a minimum of a few hrs of heavy wet snow from Olympia north before rain transition.  then another round of snow thursday morning.

I think you'll get nailed. Has looked good for the canal area ever since snow popped up on the maps

[smerfylicious]

At least my local modeling shows a foot of powder dropping from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Maybe that'll happen 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

I think you'll get nailed. Has looked good for the canal area ever since snow popped up on the maps

Yeah, even the euro is showing a massive dump. the range is 8-18 inches  depending on the model.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS shows about 30 inches of snow for Seattle over the next 5 days.     Makes sense.    

Need to check on Saturday for verification.   

[Jbolin]

10 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

The wishcasting continues

LMFAO 40" for west seattle  

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like a pretty strong rain shadow (or snow shadow if you prefer) will be in effect up here when the precipitation arrives tomorrow. Which frequently happens in overrunning events and is one of the reasons I almost never get snow during them. All the precipitation is blocked by the shadow as it slowly warms up, and by the time it actually arrives it's too warm to snow.

Oh, well. It will still be interesting to see if Seattle picks up any snow with its apocalyptic forecast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One thing to keep in mind is even though we will have south west flow this storm is reacting with some cold air in BC.

Snow level going to be 500 to 1000 ft in cascades and 1-2k in the Olympics so its a cold storm. Tim might get a bunch even with the sw flow. Might be interesting.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS shows about 30 inches of snow for Seattle over the next 5 days.     Makes sense.    

Need to check on Saturday for verification.   

What is confusing is it showed this in feb 19 and it happened for a bunch of places.  But this is just dumb.

[SnowWillarrive]

Id imagine any heavy snowfall midweek is heavily dependent on precip rates. Would be amazing. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is confusing is it showed this in feb 19 and it happened for a bunch of places.  But this is just dumb.

That was a massive overrunning event with arctic air in place and the ECMWF showed it as well.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why does our weather always suck?

[Blizzard777]

Sent from my ex up north Ferndale Wa. 
 

[Timmy]

Why does Tim hate fun and snow so much?

[AlTahoe]

Those ridges in the long range. Wow 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Why does Tim hate fun and snow so much?

Are you referring to yourself?   

I have not said anything about hating snow or fun.    I love December snow.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you referring to yourself?   

I have not said anything about hating snow or fun.    I love December snow.  

Even i know that.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Meteorological winter in 3 days

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Those ridges in the long range. Wow 

Retrogression!

[Phishy Wx]

Heavy Snow

26 DP 24

[Rubus Leucodermis]

06Z Euro and GFS snowfall maps. Time frame on the Euro chosen to exclude sea level phantom snow in my area, which looks to be a problem for it after 1800Z/1000J Wednesday (surface and 925 mbar temps just too warm).

Really not bad when even the “stingy” model gives me half a foot.

[Nov1985]

925 temps are even a bit worse over Snohomish in the 6Z ECMWF run. So there's nothing magical happening up above us tomorrow. 

Here is the Tuesday night --> Wed system snow depth forecast from each model anyway... 

[RentonHill]

A single dawg. But it’s a junkyard dawg

[SnowWillarrive]

Heavy wet snow here!

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, North_County said:

State DOT had the snowplow out this morning,  which I thought was funny.

 

 

 

My work is prepared 

[Snownerd3000]

Is making your profile pic a political figure a thing now?  

[Guest administrator]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

06Z Euro and GFS snowfall maps. Time frame on the Euro chosen to exclude sea level phantom snow in my area, which looks to be a problem for it after 1800Z/1000J Wednesday (surface and 925 mbar temps just too warm).

Really not bad when even the “stingy” model gives me half a foot.

Still too aggressive south of White Rock.

[Snownerd3000]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

06Z Euro and GFS snowfall maps. Time frame on the Euro chosen to exclude sea level phantom snow in my area, which looks to be a problem for it after 1800Z/1000J Wednesday (surface and 925 mbar temps just too warm).

Really not bad when even the “stingy” model gives me half a foot.

What is interesting is the general idea of a Sno/King CZ potentially brewing to help enhance rates.  I wouldn't be shocked to see SOME snow in this area that actually sticks.  6-12 inches is a stretch.

[TT-SEA]

10-day snowfall per 12Z GEM.    I can't remember ever seeing such model discrepancy. 

 

[Terreboner]

Looks like a little vort-max spinning up off the tip of NW Washington.  Doesn't mean much for snow in the lowlands but perhaps a little lift for the Olympics and Coast ranges through the afternoon.

[Guest administrator]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

10-day snowfall per 12Z GEM.    I can't remember ever seeing such model discrepancy. 

 

Most realistic run yet by any of the models. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Feeling optimistic areas around North Bend are going to do pretty well. The wind stays easterly until about noon on Wednesday. This happened last winter where it was raining most everywhere else but we had just enough cold air pulling in from the east to give us a foot of snow. The RGEM handled it best. 

[Nov1985]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

Perhaps it is an efficiency upgrade to reduce compute costs or make it easier to add/improve features later. The past 7 days in that chart are almost the same between GFS versions.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Feeling optimistic areas around North Bend are going to do pretty well. The wind stays easterly until about noon on Wednesday. This happened last winter where it was raining most everywhere else but we had just enough cold air pulling in from the east to give us a foot of snow. The RGEM handled it best. 

I was thinking that too... the flow might be just enough offshore out here during the heaviest precip.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

28 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Is making your profile pic a political figure a thing now?  

Only if it's a snowflake.

[Phishy Wx]

just take the GFS away. Thing is trash. new/old whatever.   People shouldn't waste their time on it, other than to look at snow and cold map porn

 

Use the Euro/EPS and save your anxiety and sorrow

 

HRRR and SREF for short and mid term

 

NBM if you have access to it (this one is used a lot by the NWS, at least in Spokane)

 

There's a reason the GFS is free and you have to pay for premium EURO content