November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Nov1985]

23 minutes ago, administrator said:

Most realistic run yet by any of the models. 

I think mesoscale NAM is pretty reasonable too. 1 to 2 inches KSEA to KPAE near the water snow depth before melting rapidly around the Sound. 1 to 3" east of I-5. The roads are too warm to stay white at these temps, but I think a lot of folks will see some brief grassy accumulation Tue night. 

[Front Ranger]

Places with elevation will do well over the next week.

In other news...all models continue to show lots of blocking over the Northern Hemisphere for the foreseeable future.

[Snownerd3000]

8 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Only if it's a snowflake.

[DareDuck]

About 2.5” in SE Bend this morning. Woke up at 5 to watch soccer right as it started. Had to take a picture before my dog runs around and “ruins” the snow. 8.5” of snow this month along with 1.77” of precip. 

[Weiner Warrior]

EURO still showing 6 inches in Seattle. Hard to believe with temps in the mid to upper 30's. I'll be happy with a few hours of sticking snow even if it's only an inch.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Euro Kuchera

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is making me believe there will be significant snow in the lowlands.    It has been slowly shifting to more easterly flow (as opposed to SE) during the heaviest precip on Wednesday morning.

[Dave]

Picked up 3" in Bend, which exceeded expectations. It also means I'm required to shovel. Fine by me. Still coming down for now. Bend has zero radar coverage so no idea.

 

[Nov1985]

Wed 7am temps trending up with 12Z ECMWF. But Wednesday night/Thu trending cooler (aloft anyway). 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is making me believe there will be significant snow in the lowlands.    It has been slowly shifting to more easterly flow (as opposed to SE) during the heaviest precip on Wednesday morning.

Who are you and where's Tim? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

EURO still showing 6 inches in Seattle. Hard to believe with temps in the mid to upper 30's. I'll be happy with a few hours of sticking snow even if it's only an inch.

 

Under heavy snow that temp will fall to 32 with the cold air aloft and the wet bulb.

[Deweydog]

Euro’s a bit chillier for mid week.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Be a tough call not to issue something to let people be aware. The commute could be a nightmare tomorrow in places.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Euro’s a bit chillier for mid week.

All it took was a little tweak.

[Phishy Wx]

just had what sounded like a clap of Thunder, dang

 

Heavy Snow, 27

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Who are you and where's Tim? 

When there is reason to believe its real then I am all in... sometimes it actually happens and its snows in the lowlands.    Many times in fact.   I just go with what seems realistic.    I leave the fantasy stuff to others.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Wed 7am temps trending up with 12Z ECMWF. But Wednesday night/Thu trending cooler (aloft anyway). 

[Nov1985]

ECMWF's 12Z warmer Wednesday morning (before a cooler Wed night) explained by the system moving in a bit earlier, faster warmup. Past 4 runs at 1am Wednesday. 

[Skagit Weather]

Tonight still looks frigid on the Euro. Predicts lows in the upper teens while the GFS and NAM are going for upper 20s and the GEM splits the difference. NWS predicts low 20s and upper teens.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm going to issue a winter storm warning for my house. 4-10 inches.  

[Christensen87]

Is it possible that a WSW could be posted soon for the lowlands? I would think at least the north Sound. 

[Deweydog]

Unfortunate that things turned out so splitty. Teleconnectively this is money.

[Winterdog]

At least it snowed a bit here.  Expecting a more GFS type event early Wednesday.

[Phishy Wx]

Lol of course ill be out of town for work....

 

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: A vertically stacked low
will move offshore of Vancouver Island Tuesday night and then
shift south off the WA coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. There
are still differences in the ensemble forecasts in snow amounts
and locations of heaviest snow. But the bottom line here is that 
is is gonna snow. Tuesday evening we will see good upslope flow 
into the Cascades which will continue through the night and into 
the morning hours. There is an 80% chance of Stevens Pass seeing a
foot of snow. The mountains and higher terrain will see lots of 
snow. Down towards the valleys...for seeing 4 inches of snow the 
cities have the following probabilities: Omak 85%, Waterville 50%,
Wenatchee 30% and Moses Lake 35%. 

Overnight the higher swath of precipitation will move eastward.
There are differences btwn the GFS and EC ensemble on where to 
put this higher band of qpf. The EC wants to put it further north
across Ferry, Stevens, Pend Oreille and Bonner counties, while the
GFS ensemble has it in the southern portions of those counties and
into Lincoln, Spokane and Kootenai counties. GFS ensemble has
almost double what the EC ensemble is showing for qpf for Spokane,
and therefore more than double the snowfall. The range between all
100 ensemble members for Spokane is between 2 inches and 15
inches. The current forecast for the Spokane/CDA area 8 to 10
inches with higher amounts the further north you go. Upwards of a
foot of snow for Deer Park, Newport and Sandpoint. Looking at the
NBM 4.1 probabilities greater than 8 inches, the area of highest
values...65% or higher exist from Omak to Republic, Colville, Deer
Park, Sandpoint. With 55% for CDA, 45% for Spokane and 60% for
Lookout Pass. 

Given the snow will continue through the day continuously and into
the evening hours, motorists: plan for long commutes, and if 
possible just stay home and shovel or snow blow your driveways 
multiple times to keep up. 

On top of the snow, winds will increase through the day across
portions of the Columbia Basin and into Spokane and the Palouse.
Have added some blowing snow into the forecast as any snow falling
or has recently fallen could be light enough to blow around. 

Through the overnight hours the snow will primarily be focused in
the ID Panhandle and parts of extreme eastern WA. Unfortunately,
cannot rule out some snow north of Highway 2 to the Canadian
border as well, but accumulations there should be light. 

Now is the time to start preparing for this storm. Make sure your
vehicles are winterized and prepared for winter travel. Don't go
out Wednesday unless you need to. /Nisbet

[Doinko]

 

 

[Timmy]

Hard to hate this

[RentonHill]

Is that what I think it is on day 8?

[Kolk1604]

Yeah was just going to say cold air is further south at day 7

[joelgombiner]

Both western Washington radars appear to be down... 

[Blizzard777]

Some dead lumpy rain/snowflakes falling 

38*

[Cloud]

Looks solid for around Everett north, Wednesday morning 1am, soundings supports snow. 

Not so much for Central sound, mid-30s.. .and perhaps some mixed. 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

Both western Washington radars appear to be down... 

Yup

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm going to issue a winter storm warning for my house. 4-10 inches.  

I’m going with 6–12" IMBY.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah was just going to say cold air is further south at day 7

Yup, great chances of an arctic refill and more snow later.

[Snownerd3000]

That polar lobe looks like something thrown from Sub-Zero.  Blows up when hitting the border and has a little friend coming for reinforcements.

[Doinko]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

That polar lobe looks like something thrown from Sub-Zero.  Blows up when hitting the border and has a little friend coming for reinforcements.

Just wish that Alaska block was stronger

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Doinko said:

Just wish that Alaska block was stronger

A week is a long time in our world, especially when you're watching every model run.  Maybe it will evolve into something epic.  Definitely expect to see more fun this winter the way things are going.

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Just wish that Alaska block was stronger

On Days 9-10 it looks like the block is trying to reset.

[Gradient Keeper]

I can't wait to see how the models look in 3-4 days. Well, the EURO that is. There is no point model riding the GFS outside of Day 3.

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 45 minutes

[Kolk1604]

Day 10. Still plenty of arctic air in Canada