November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Requiem]

Now this would certainly be something 

[Hawksfan2008]

The totals on the GFS are obviously outrageous but a widespread snowstorm seems more and more possible once you dig in. Winds stay easterly during the main event and dew points are quite low. Maybe we’ll thread the needle! 

[CloudJunkie]

We've got a rain/snow mix in Lakewood! It's 40 degrees out, kind of surprising.

[gusky]

Just now, RayRay said:

Is he mentioning us? That Cliff mass??

I think Cliff Mass has been spying on us!

I'm getting serious de ja vu here. I swear we had this exact same discussion last December about snow depth vs. snowfall, and I feel like we all know the difference.

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, CloudJunkie said:

We've got a rain/snow mix in Lakewood! It's 40 degrees out, kind of surprising.

Wow, that's gotta be at the very upper limit of temps for snow to not melt by the time it reaches the ground.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Is he mentioning us? That Cliff mass??

I think Cliff Mass has been spying on us!

Grandpa must be getting tired

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass is not onboard. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

I'm getting serious de ja vu here. I swear we had this exact same discussion last December about snow depth vs. snowfall, and I feel like we all know the difference.

Cliff Mass reads this forum for sure. He finds it humorous. he was wrong last December.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Is he mentioning us? That Cliff mass??

I think Cliff Mass has been spying on us!

If Cliff is cocksure about it NOT being a big event, that bodes well for us snow-lovers.

[Christensen87]

Hey Cliff! 

[gusky]

I do also feel like Cliff gets a bit too much hate here. The only things that I could point out he could do better are the ways he communicates (can be a bit confrontational) and over-relying on WRF. The latter is understandable considering his contributions to it.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass is not onboard. 

Like Jim Cramer telling you to sell something, its a fat buy signal.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass reads this forum for sure. He finds it humorous. he was wrong last December.

I know ground temperature is basically irrelevant... that is just silly.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Like Jim Cramer telling you to sell something, its a fat buy signal.

This is so true

[HuskyMaestro]

7 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Is he mentioning us? That Cliff mass??

I think Cliff Mass has been spying on us!

This forum has snow cabins up in that guy's head, livin' rent free and everything. 

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass reads this forum for sure. He finds it humorous. he was wrong last December.

We know that Justin at SWB reads it, and Cliff most likely reads it too. I have a feeling there are plenty of other prominent lurkers. Wish some of them would chip in sometimes!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Is he mentioning us? That Cliff mass??

I think Cliff Mass has been spying on us!

That roadway surface bullshit gets old. The ground will cool and snow will stick in a hurry. we've all experienced this.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Like Jim Cramer telling you to sell something, its a fat buy signal.

With Cramer it's usually the other way around.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Wet snow/rain mix here with a moderate shower moving over. Color me surprised.

Down to 38 after a high of 43.

Would say first flakes of the season but we already had some late night flakeage with the early November trough.

[Snownerd3000]

I'm so interested in seeing the EURO 

[Front Ranger]

18z is notably colder a week from now.

[gusky]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh God, here he goes with the road temperatures again. Good Lord that shtick got old a decade ago.

If I had a nickel for every time Cliff Mass said we would not get snow because road temps were in the upper 30s, I would have enough money to buy the dumpster fire that is Twitter from Elon Musk. 

Important for him to point out though cause of the amount of new and not-as-knowledgeable readers he gets.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Oh God, here he goes with the road temperatures again. Good Lord that shtick got old a decade ago.

If I had a nickel for every time Cliff Mass said we would not get snow because road temps were in the upper 30s, I would have enough money to buy the dumpster fire that is Twitter from Elon Musk. 

He's a smart dude but crap like this is why i loose respect for his forecast.  I have seen 60 degrees at my cabin and have it snow the same night 8 inches on a warm ground and pavement roads.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Classic overrunning event.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass reads this forum for sure. He finds it humorous. he was wrong last December.

It’s amusing to watch his blog when his forecasts bust. He starts out by being so certain and assertive about them “this is what we know will happen”, etc. Then if it doesn’t happen, he falls oddly silent and doesn’t post for a while.

Not saying they guy’s forecasts always bust (sometimes he nails it). Just that when they do, the level of emotional involvement is obvious. A more humble/less emotionally involved forecaster wouldn’t be shy about following up with a “this is why I was wrong” postmortem.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

With Cramer it's usually the other way around.

True.  I went this way since Cliff is selling this event not buying.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rgem 3am Thursday.

[T-Town]

I can see the edge of the Tacoma snowhole off in the distance. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

He puts wayyyyy too much stock into that metric to determine that snow amounts will underperform. With heavy enough precip (which this event is at least partially relying on) the snow rates can overcome slightly "warm" road temps pretty quickly. I've seen it happen many times even after 'ol Cliff says it simply can't be done!

This is especially true at night.

However, in this case it's definitely not the "warm" ground/roads that will likely limit accumulations for many lower elevations. It's the actual air temperature.

It's not like the ground is that warm anyway...it's been pretty cool.

[gusky]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

He puts wayyyyy too much stock into that metric to determine that snow amounts will underperform. With heavy enough precip (which this event is at least partially relying on) the snow rates can overcome slightly "warm" road temps pretty quickly. I've seen it happen many times even after 'ol Cliff says it simply can't be done!

January 15th, 2020 I remember a cell came through and rapidly cooled the air and coated road surfaces in a very concrete area of Capitol Hill. Wasn't as interested in weather forecasting at the time so it took me by surprise. Point is, like you said, there's plenty of evidence of these types of things overpowering high temps and road temps to let snow (briefly) stick.

[DeepFriedEgg]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Classic overrunning event.

That is money.

 

Also the through a couple days after that just a touch too far north and east (at least for Portland)

[AlTahoe]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That roadway surface bullshit gets old. The ground will cool and snow will stick in a hurry. we've all experienced this.

Spring time up here we have gone from upper 60's to 6" on snow on the ground in 3 hours many times. The warm ground thing is stupid. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh God, here he goes with the road temperatures again. Good Lord that shtick got old a decade ago.

If I had a nickel for every time Cliff Mass said we would not get snow because road temps were in the upper 30s, I would have enough money to buy the dumpster fire that is Twitter from Elon Musk. 

Lol.  Nice. 

I think it's just lazy writing.  It's common sense that snow won't stick immediately on warmish wet roads. 

All the "amateurs" on this forum have mostly fully developed frontal lobes and have a firm understanding that water melts ice.

GTFO Cliff

[Phishy Wx]

Does Mass really think people here are that dumb?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is just a nice run. 4 or 5 snow chances for the next week.

[TacomaWx]

Holy sh*t what is going to happen this week have no idea 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Snowmizer stepping up today.

Thanks dude!

[Doinko]

???

Temps look to be around 30-32 with offshore flow, this would be amazing

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Does Mass really think people here are that dumb?

I'd put the knowledge of a few people on here against any pro met. 

[RentonHill]

Snowing in skyway on my drive home. Car temp says 41 

also snowing in samammish according to in laws (they don’t live by a webcam sorry Tim sunset is probably wet)