November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[RentonHill]

WILLOW

29 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Gonna look like Madmartigan from Willow

 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Considering what every model is showing i think a winter storm watch from Olympia north would be a good call and downgrade to advisory for a 1-3 inches possible and 4-8 over Kitsap peninsula.

I could see this happening.  I'm supposed to head into the office (Columbia Tower) tomorrow and pick my kidlets up from grandparents after work.  I'm thinking maybe na.  I don't care if it is sticking, driving in this area with snow falling sucks.  I can see it now, the goofus gets it right, for once, and I'll be stuck on 405 with hungry kids.

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, rsktkr said:

I. Am. So. F*cking. Confused.

Zero clue what's going to happen this week.

Yet, I am totally fine with it.

Its like Christmas and Groundhogs day had a baby.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I could see this happening.  I'm supposed to head into the office (Columbia Tower) tomorrow and pick my kidlets up from grandparents after work.  I'm thinking maybe na.  I don't care if it is sticking, driving in this area with snow falling sucks.  I can see it now, the goofus gets it right, for once, and I'll be stuck on 405 with hungry kids.

I’m in 800 5th kitty corner from CT. I really wanted to come in to go to bar for the game but if it’s snowing…nah

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Have they tried unplugging the GFS and plugging it back in?  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is from the Wednesday evening feature that i showed on the 3km nam frame.

[Cloud]

It's likely SEA's high today is going to be 40.... but that occurred during the overnight hours. 

Temps are dropping w/ a daytime reading of 39. 

Just an overall chilly day. 

[Everleigh]

Left the house to pick kids up. The sky is really interesting.  Big, puffy white clouds. Dark grey, heavy looking clouds. Blue sky. Sun. Currently where I am sitting, it's trying to.....hail? Maybe trying to graupel more.... 

 

I dig it. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Perhaps taking the cartridge out and blowing on it really hard?

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS looks pretty good. Below average through the end of the run.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That 405/5 interchange in Lynnwood looks to get smacked.  Should make traffic a breeze.

NAM 3km isn't too bad for me, either!

[snow maniac]

11 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I do have high doubts that we see these temps in only 2.5 hours.

Currently 38 here now.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is from the Wednesday evening feature that i showed on the 3km nam frame.

Those deformation-esque features often get undermodeled. I have a feeling there will be some nice surprises coming Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, particularly in the favored spots.

[Seattle]

On 11/26/2022 at 8:45 PM, snow_wizard said:

This is almost getting a feel to it like our infrequent persistently cold winters.  The likes of 1916-17, 1948-49, 1978-79, 1992-93, etc.  As I've said before this will be a big test for the January curse.  Still a high chance that month will ruin it.

How about persistently cool winters? Have we ever just had a bunch of upper 30s/low 40s for days on end?

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS looks pretty good. Below average through the end of the run.

[Nov1985]

Temp and dew point starting to separate all the way into King County now. Here IMBY.

[Seattle]

17 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I do have high doubts that we see these temps in only 2.5 hours.

I mean inter-hour obs at KSEA is bumping around for 39 to 37 (cooling trend). So it's probably 38 there. Seems like we're already there.

And dew point is down to 28.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

NAM 3km isn't too bad for me, either!

And me!! If correct, that is 3.5” being shown at work location

[The Blob]

Had a grapple shower go through

[RentonHill]

Just now, The Blob said:

Had a grapple shower go through

D**n watch out!!!

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Perhaps taking the cartridge out and blowing on it really hard?

I just got a live feed from the GFS headquarters! They have upgraded to the 64 from the Vic 28! 

[Terreboner]

Wouldn't be surprised if it clouds back up for a few hours this early evening and snows for a bit.  The low is coming onshore and looks like some good lift occuring with it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z gfs looks even more snowy. low is weaker and a bit further south. That wed evening thursday morning feature is looking even better as well.

[Snownerd3000]

Everyone grab your favorite bottle of Monarch and join in the fun.  18z just started running and hasn't really deviated from recent runs.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4am Wednesday looking crazy. Who knows at this point.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And we have this. 

[AlTahoe]

Storm #1 looks decent for us. Storm # 2 on Saturday night could be a similar size. 

 

WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16
  inches, except 14 to 26 inches above 7000 feet possible, highest
  along the Sierra crest. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph in
  valley locations with gusts above 100 mph along the Sierra
  crest.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

4am Wednesday looking crazy. Who knows at this point.

I would really really like the Goofus to verify because it buries me. Practically, I know the lighter amounts modeled by the Euro and HRRR are more likely to be reality.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Shirt is fitting bc following the GFS shows you need to truly have faith lol

[Cloud]

[Snownerd3000]

The L on Friday is fairly week but only delivers a glancing blow.  Wonder if it would be enough to help reinforce some cold air.

[SouthHillFrosty]

If the GFS happens, I will start going back to church

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

Cloud streets (blue) as cold continental air pours out over the Pacific, and a continental front in the northern Puget Sound (teal), confirmed by the dewpoint analysis posted by @Skagit Weather. The front looks a little stuck in place on the animated imagery.  

Edit: it looks like two convergence zones are forming stretching from the north-central Sound to the SE tip of Vancouver Island. Maybe someone will see some snow showers. 

It snowed in Victoria for a couple hours. No real accumulation though 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

If the GFS happens, I will start going back to church

 

[Cloud]

18z Euro says what?! Stay tuned... this is quite interesting and far from resolved. 

[Requiem]

Snow/rain mix here at the current moment.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If the GFS happens, I will start going back to church

 

I’m holding you to this. Jesus take the wheel. 

[Cold Snap]

IMO, based on my previous experiences with overrunning events. The models almost always have had my location switching to rain hours before I actually did and because of that I would get much more snow than forecasted such as Jan 2011, Dec 2016, and the huge one in Feb 2019. I feel like there will be some surprises with how much later some people change to rain than what the models were showing.

[RayRay]

Is he mentioning us? That Cliff mass??

I think Cliff Mass has been spying on us!