Kolk1604 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: And we’re jinxed I'm not in the advisory area, but I noticed Algona is. Must be where the line stops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 These warming heavy precip events have gone both ways so many times. GFS simply refuses to move the mission critical NW to SE cold line to the NE like the other models do. Here's ECMWF --> GFS --> NAM comparison for 4am Wednesday. Which model to trust more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deweydog Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Portland OR 108 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022 PZZ210-291400- /O.CON.KPQR.SC.Y.0172.000000T0000Z-221129T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KPQR.GL.W.0024.221130T0200Z-221130T1200Z/ Columbia River Bar- 108 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...For the Gale Warning, seas 8 to 12 ft at 8 to 11 seconds and south winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, rough bar conditions expected with seas around 10 ft at 11 seconds. Seas will climb close to 11 ft during the strong ebb current of 5.67 kt at 755 PM Monday. * WHERE...In the Main Channel of the Columbia River Bar. * WHEN...Gale Warning, from 6 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM PST this evening. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. 1 4 6 2 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: BAM! I live right on the king/snohomish line. I'm part of the advisory but so close to the WSW that I'm identifying as part of the WSW lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4-8 inches in the WSW for my location. I feel like that may be a little high. I was thinking I get more in the 2-4 inch range. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardwatch24 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 303 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022 WAZ503-506-507-555-290715- /O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0006.221129T2100Z-221201T0000Z/ Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity- East Puget Sound Lowlands- including Bellingham, Blaine, Point Roberts, Ferndale, Lynden, Sumas, Sudden Valley, Burlington, Mount Vernon, Sedro-Woolley, La Conner, Conway, Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Stanwood, Bonney Lake, Maple Valley, Monroe, Woodinville, Arlington, Granite Falls, Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Gold Bar, Duvall, Carnation, Fall City, Snoqualmie, North Bend, Covington, Black Diamond, Orting, and Eatonville 303 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Lowlands of western Whatcom County, including Point Roberts, Lummi Island, Bellingham, and Sumas, Lowlands of western Skagit County, including Cypress Island, Guemes Island, Anacortes, Mount Vernon, and La Conner, Everett and vicinity, including Stanwood, Marysville, and Mountlake Terrace and East Puget Sound Lowlands from Snohomish County to Pierce County, including Arlington, Gold Bar, Duvall, Snoqualmie, Buckley, and Eatonville. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Higher snow accumulations expected in the higher hills of the area. they need to fix their maps. they show my house with advisory in Mill creek, yet my neighbor 3 minutes away same elevation with winter storm watch...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Interesting. NWS Spokane uses "warm tongue" instead of warm nose. Whats more appropriate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said: I live right on the king/snohomish line. I'm part of the advisory but so close to the WSW that I'm identifying as part of the WSW lol I do the same thing when warnings are posted only for the NW interior which does not include Snohomish Co, but I am a half mile away from Skagit Co so I just lump myself in with the cool kids lol! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: Interesting. NWS Spokane uses "warm tongue" instead of warm nose. Whats more appropriate? 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said: If the GFS happens, I will start going back to church You should probably start that before the GFS happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, Cloud said: GFS is kuld... MBY colder than Yakima and Spokane in December? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 The Friday-Saturday period still has some potential for areas south. 18z GFS shows pretty much a best case track for PDX. Steady precip and offshore flow. The Euro is not as friendly but it does have a similar idea It just isn't quite cold enough, a mix or cold rain. Given the GFS's cold bias, the ECMWF is much more likely accurate here. Still worth watching this scenario however. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 55 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Wet snow/rain mix here with a moderate shower moving over. Color me surprised. Down to 38 after a high of 43. Would say first flakes of the season but we already had some late night flakeage with the early November trough. Yeah but that was the summer snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 28 minutes ago, Cloud said: Oh he definitely reads... he took a shot as "amateur weather observers" on these forums last year. A few years ago I got an email sent from the UW network letting me know that the forum contributed to the wider toxic culture in the weather enthusiast community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, administrator said: A few years ago I got an email sent from the UW network letting me know that the forum contributed to the wider toxic culture in the weather enthusiast community. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, administrator said: A few years ago I got an email sent from the UW network letting me know that the forum contributed to the wider toxic culture in the weather enthusiast community. **** THE COMMUNITY - GFS ALL THE WAY 1 1 1 Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 I love Lake Cavanaugh! If it wasn’t about 40 minutes from I-5 I would have loved to have bought a place out there when we were looking for a new spot 5yrs ago. Took a drive out there two years ago when it was raining and upper 30’s at home, my then 2yr old was refusing to take a nap so we took a drive! Was snowing there and 32 degrees. It was heaven. 8 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Personally I prefer snow depth maps to set expectations. But they get confusing when we have multiple systems in a week. Also, things like ECMWF's phantom 6" inches of snow in Mt Vernon today mess them up too. Here's snow depth forecast Tue 1pm to Wed 1pm, GFS, EC, NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 You all are my best friends. And thats something that Cliff Mass can never compete with. 6 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Hopefully we get some snow down here. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: I do the same thing when warnings are posted only for the NW interior which does not include Snohomish Co, but I am a half mile away from Skagit Co so I just lump myself in with the cool kids lol! That's cheating. We may have to make you forfeit your snow totals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, MossMan said: BAM! They are currently calling the line between "storm" and "advisory" Mountlake Terrace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 LOL ya ok.... Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 303 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022 WAZ512-290715- /O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0006.221129T2100Z-221201T0000Z/ Lower Chehalis Valley Area- including Montesano, Elma, and McCleary 303 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Far southwest Mason County and the interior lowlands of Grays Harbor County, including Matlock. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest snow accumulations expected for the northern portions of Grays Harbor County on the south side of the Olympics. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 They put Covington under WSW just to make Snowwizard happy. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 If that ice pellet report in N Sea is true then I should be getting some frozen precip any minute. Shows more (very light) precip headed this way soon as well. 3 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 35.6° and there is a light mix falling, with the occasional fat flake!!! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Hotbox PDX at 46F 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: They put Covington under WSW just to make Snowwizard happy. wait - JIM hasnt logged on in 21 hours jesus christ - welfare check? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: wait - JIM hasnt logged on in 21 hours jesus christ - welfare check? Jim might go nuclear if he see’s the latest gfs run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: wait - JIM hasnt logged on in 21 hours jesus christ - welfare check? I’m in Covington. Gimme an address. 1 1 Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Getting some ice pellets now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 When's the next GFS come out. I need more..... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, Archon said: I’m in Covington. Gimme an address. Never mind - found him. 1 1 1 Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Archon said: I’m in Covington. Gimme an address. Just look for frozen buckets of water... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Archon said: Never mind - found him. wow 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 18z was a nice run… 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: wow Err… new photo. EDIT: I am stealing this and changing my name. So it be done. Edited November 28, 2022 by The Winter Warlock 1 3 Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said: Hotbox PDX at 46F How? It's 40 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Temp at 34.2*F, DP at 31.8*F and we have flakes! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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