November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

The ridiculous torch might be over but the ensembles look less than inspiring over the next 2 weeks.

[snow_wizard]

The ridiculous torch might be over but the ensembles look less than inspiring over the next 2 weeks.

The operational has been consistently good as have the PNA forecasts. My bets are on pretty cool late in the month. Then of course the next couple of days look chilly also.

[ShawniganLake]

[bainbridgekid]

I have been getting numerous updates from my son excitedly watching WSDOT cams over Snoqualmie Pass.   

Snow looks pretty heavy up there. Komo News just showed a live shot there with what looked like a couple inches in the parking lot.

 

November 15th is pretty D**n late for their first snow of the year.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looked pretty chilly towards days 9-10

[Brennan]

00z GFS obliterates the PV and burns the remains.

Does it piss on the ashes???

[snow_wizard]

IMG_0395.PNG

I'm not that worried about it. The operational GFS, operational ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble have all been chilly.

[Phil]

Does it piss on the ashes???

You could say that..GFS/GEFS have almost a complete wind reversal in the mid/upper strat. What a change from last year!

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Bitter December - January on the way. How much manages to make it over the Canadian Rockies is unclear. Moderate potential of severe cold for WA/OR/ID.

[MossMan]

36 degrees currently after an extremely wet day yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bitter December - January on the way. How much manages to make it over the Canadian Rockies is unclear. Moderate potential of severe cold for WA/OR/ID.

 

What are you basing this on?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 with light rain. Feels...Seasonal.

[GobBluth]

Bitter December - January on the way. How much manages to make it over the Canadian Rockies is unclear. Moderate potential of severe cold for WA/OR/ID.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016111600/660/850t_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

43 with light rain here. Amazing how cold that feels. How long has it been since we've seen rain below 45F? March?

[crf450ish]

Snowing in Spokane

[ShawniganLake]

Dropped to 34 here. Had some 36 degree rain showers. I didn't go outside but I assume it felt cold.

[Phil]

For all that was made of the 2013/14 analog..lol.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/47CC9790-813F-4B8E-8412-45B47D924681_zps8gpdblyq.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/712C9E4E-ECE1-4DCF-8AE5-DA078C2023F4_zpsswo3hkap.jpg

[Phil]

Apocalyptic blocking on the long range 12z GFS. Wowzers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apocalyptic blocking on the long range 12z GFS. Wowzers.

 

Now if we could get some cold in this hemisphere...

[Phil]

Now if we could get some cold in this hemisphere...

Yeah, just all bottled up in Eurasia through the run. Hopefully we're able to tap that reservoir at some point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, just all bottled up in Eurasia through the run. Hopefully we're able to tap that reservoir at some point.

 

It is a nice setup, but literally no cold air to work with. Probably not even cold enough for snow at my location. 

[crf450ish]

Apocalyptic blocking on the long range 12z GFS. Wowzers.

I can't find it, I don't know where to begin with this http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/extendedgfsinit.html

 

 

You got a screen shot?

[Phil]

I can't find it, I don't know where to begin with this http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/extendedgfsinit.html

 

 

You got a screen shot?

Sure, lol.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/5508C728-A16D-41F6-B44E-B43EB3397CEE_zps6nixtl4i.gif

[Kayla]

It is a nice setup, but literally no cold air to work with. Probably not even cold enough for snow at my location. 

 

00z Euro seems a bit more promising at day 9 and 10. But the cold source is still not all that arctic and modifies quite a bit by the time it reaches us. Probably -4 to -5 850's at best in our area.

 

Have to love the overall pattern and setup though.

[MossMan]

Sure, lol.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/5508C728-A16D-41F6-B44E-B43EB3397CEE_zps6nixtl4i.gif

Sad having a nice setup with zero cold air to tap.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z Euro seems a bit more promising at day 9 and 10. But the cold source is still not all that arctic and modifies quite a bit by the time it reaches us. Probably -4 to -5 850's at best in our area.

 

Have to love the overall pattern and setup though.

 

Yes, it would bring below average temps to most areas and perhaps would serve as one of Jim's "warning shots."

[westcoastexpat]

Last night's CFS run is insane for PNW lock it in

[Timmy]

Last night's CFS run is insane for PNW lock it in

At face value, how much snow would you guess for my location ?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last night's CFS run is insane for PNW lock it in

 

Links and screengrabs too...

[westcoastexpat]

Links and screengrabs too...

[FroYoBro]

Great to finally see. I'm sure skiers/snow boarders are starting to get real nervous. 

[ShawniganLake]

Great to finally see. I'm sure skiers/snow boarders are starting to get real nervous. 

Its probably going to be too cold to go skiing this winter anyways. 

[Bryant]

At face value, how much snow would you guess for my location ?

Being serious?

[stuffradio]

Being serious?

Do you even need to ask?

[Jesse]

12z Euro shows a pretty good mountain snow pattern. Decently cool in the lowlands as well.

 

This is the exact progression I was hoping we'd see this month.

[Sometimesdylan]

Frost on the car, puddles are frozen, and a nice blue sunny sky. Roads are (mostly) dry though, so that is nice. Looks to be nice and clear for a couple days. Will be interesting to see if we can get some of the shaded ponds/lakes to freeze. Just finished up the fall season of hockey. Would love to be able to play outdoors for a month until the spring season starts.

 

27 degrees on my porch this morning. Will probably warm into the low 30s in places that are in the sun all day. 

 

Life is good, coffee is good, enjoy your day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Frost on the car, puddles are frozen, and a nice blue sunny sky. Roads are (mostly) dry though, so that is nice. Looks to be nice and clear for a couple days. Will be interesting to see if we can get some of the shaded ponds/lakes to freeze. Just finished up the fall season of hockey. Would love to be able to play outdoors for a month until the spring season starts.

 

27 degrees on my porch this morning. Will probably warm into the low 30s in places that are in the sun all day. 

 

Life is good, coffee is good, enjoy your day.

 

I could go for some cool dry weather right now. Be interesting to see if I can hit freezing tonight. 

[Sometimesdylan]

From the JNU forecast discussion this morning. 
 

Our clear/cold/dry break looks to breakdown at the start of next

week. Models agree on a low tracking across the southern gulf,
but differ on the timing of precip moving in. In fact most models
have delayed the onset to Monday or Tuesday. Have gone with a
middle ground for this forecast package with precip moving in from
the south and becoming likely across the central panhandle Monday
night. Cold airmass will still be in place along with north
surface winds. Therefore this is looking like a good potential for
an overrunning snow event for Juneau/Gustavus north.

 

 

Bring it on... please!!!

[Sometimesdylan]

I could go for some cool dry weather right now. Be interesting to see if I can hit freezing tonight. 

I would say 3/4 of the cold/dry spells we get end up with some snow. Just this October some places got up to 7 inches in a similar pattern. 

 

It can make for a bit of a mess if the overrunning airmass is too warm, then all of that snow that formed at cold temps just turns to the worst slush, and our backcountry skiing goes to crap because of an "upside down" snowpack, but... it's all worth it for that day or two of snow at sea level and the couple days of anticipation leading up to it.

 

I am such a weenie haha