SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Little bit lost in all the extended range talk is the system moving in later tonight into Thanksgiving day. Looking like some pretty big flooding concerns for the North Oregon coastal areas. 12z ECMWF is even showing nearly 3" of rainfall for PDX and nearing 4" on the western fridges of the Willamette Valley over the next 48 hours. Edit: Flood Watch just issued by the NWS for the Willamette Valley and Coastal areas. That front just stalls and dumps tons of rain. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 That front just stalls and dumps tons of rain. Sure does. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Well looking at the ensembles we have pretty much lost the mid-range, but the long range is improving. Carrot meet Stick. What exactly have we been tracking in the mid-range that has been so great and that is now gone? I feel like you are mainly looking for sub-528 thicknesses/snow at your location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 That front just stalls and dumps tons of rain. Could be some epic mountain snow totals in spots. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 What exactly have we been tracking in the mid-range that has been so great and that is now gone? I feel like you are mainly looking for sub-528 thicknesses/snow at your location. I am. If a model showed 3-5" of snow at your location you would hope it verified. That looks unlikely now. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Could be some epic mountain snow totals in spots. Not tomorrow. At least not in Oregon. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Not tomorrow. At least not in Oregon. Washington could get hammered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I am. If a model showed 3-5" of snow at your location you would hope it verified. That looks unlikely now. I hear ya. I still think this will be your snowiest winter in 3-4 years. I also think a lot of it will fall January-March, so you will be here for it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 We might not even get a warning shot out of this at this rate. So, no warning shot means the mother-lode of arctic air is just going to plunge down into the Pacific Northwest, with no warning, right? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I hear ya. I still think this will be your snowiest winter in 3-4 years. I also think a lot of it will fall January-March, so you will be here for it! Yay. You know how nervous I am about missing some of the goods! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 12z Euro/GEM don't leave much hope for anything worthwhile through the first week of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 So, no warning shot means the mother-lode of arctic air is just going to plunge down into the Pacific Northwest, with no warning, right? Its 2016 so I am not sure if that is allowed without at least a written warning. I mean I cant even enjoy a cup of coffee without a warning label in my face. "Contents may be hot". No s**t, I ordered a ******* coffee! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 12z Euro/GEM don't leave much hope for anything worthwhile through the first week of the month. I like the 12Z Euro. Chilly with mountain snows and frost potential in the lowlands toward the early part of next week. The pattern at day 10 looks like it could be setting up for something good later on too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Today seems like a pretty good candidate for PDX to score their first sub-50 high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I like the 12Z Euro. Chilly with mountain snows and frost potential in the lowlands toward the early part of next week. The pattern at day 10 looks like it could be setting up for something good later on too.Canadian looks very similar. Its ensembles look pretty promising after day 10. Seems like things are getting pushed back right now, which is disappointing/ frustrating. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016112312/gem-ens_z500a_namer_58.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Canadian looks very similar. Its ensembles look pretty promising after day 10. Seems like things are getting pushed back right now, which is disappointing/ frustrating. It's also how almost every major pattern change progresses on the models. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 It's also how almost every major pattern change progresses on the models.Yeah. I was just about to say something similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Canadian looks very similar. Its ensembles look pretty promising after day 10. Seems like things are getting pushed back right now, which is disappointing/ frustrating. Further they get pushed back, the colder they may trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I know it's completely unscientific, but I'll be in Chicago Dec. 17th-Jan. 2nd it just feels right we'd get hit while I'm gone. Its confirmation bias, but I swear it finds a way to snow here every single time I leave in the Winter. 6 day blast Dec. 17th-22nd it is I guess?The winter weather you experience in Chicago will probably blow away anything you'd experience in the PNW. So, at least there's that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 It's also how almost every major pattern change progresses on the models. And it will end up like most meteorological mirages where we get some bs pattern that produces warm anomalies. It's like spotting an In-N-Out Burger joint in the distance only for it to actually be a Wendy's. May as well be dead... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 12Z NAEFS thickness on December 5 for NCEP and CMC drops to low 520s, and CMC rises after that, NCEP keeps going down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Yeah. I was just about to say something similar.I don't know if we have ever had something good show up in the models and it has progressed from day one with no push back...I could be wrong though. People tend to loose hope way too quickly around here! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I like the 12Z Euro. Chilly with mountain snows and frost potential in the lowlands toward the early part of next week. The pattern at day 10 looks like it could be setting up for something good later on too.as it has the last several runs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 as it has the last several runs... Yeah and it totally ruined my day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Further they get pushed back, the colder they may trendTrue. I have always liked our chances for something good coming in December this year. I also still think there is a good chance December ends up below average here for the month. My original thoughts for this winter were below average temps for Dec. and Feb. My snowfall forecast was: YVR 20" YXX 30" Shawnigan Lake 40"Hopefully these totals are too low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 True. I have always liked our chances for something good coming in December this year. I also still think there is a good chance December ends up below average here for the month. My original thoughts for this winter were below average temps for Dec. and Feb. My snowfall forecast was: YVR 20" YXX 30" Shawnigan Lake 40"Hopefully these totals are too low. Really? You think YVR will get that much ? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Yeah and it totally ruined my day wow, you are bitter fella. and hr 240 doesn't even look good btw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Really? You think YVR will get that much ?Yes, I think above normal is likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 12z Euro/GEM don't leave much hope for anything worthwhile through the first week of the month. The slow descent into cooler anomalies is still on track. Blocking in the general area you want it, just not amplified enough yet. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Its 2016 so I am not sure if that is allowed without at least a written warning. I mean I cant even enjoy a cup of coffee without a warning label in my face. "Contents may be hot". No s**t, I ordered a ******* coffee! Soon weather models will have the following message across the top of the page: WARNING: The model depiction below is not guaranteed to be even close to accurate. Put your hopes and dreams on this model run at your own risk, they may be crushed. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Further they get pushed back, the colder they may trend Closer to January! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 A few members of my family have asked me what I would like for Christmas...I sent them this and told them I want a repeat. Oh and a LazyBoy! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA758 AM PST THU DEC 25 2008EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-758 AM PST THU DEC 25 2008 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR WESTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY...NORTH SEATTLE...AND THENORTH PART OF THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS NORTH OF BELLEVUE...WHICH ISIN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHERADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH PUGETSOUND AREA THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHESOF WET SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE WARNING AREA EXTENDSFROM ABOUT ARLINGTON SOUTHWARD TO NORTH SEATTLE...INCLUDINGEVERETT...AND EASTWARD TO THE CASCADES...INCLUDING THE NORTHBELLEVUE TO REDMOND AREA...UP THROUGH SNOHOMISH AND BACK TOARLINGTON. ABOUT 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW HAD FALLEN IN THE BOTHELL TO LAKE CITYCORRIDOR AS OF 7 AM. THERE WILL BE LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEINDIVIDUAL SNOW BANDS WEAKEN AND ARE THEN REPLACED WITH A NEW BANDOF SHOWERS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER 1 PM. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THE REST OF TODAY...BUT ARENOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE OR PERSISTENT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIXWITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS...BUT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE ALL SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE HEAVY WET SNOW FALLING ON ALREADY SLOWLY MELTING SNOW WILLMAKE SLUSHY MIX THAT CAN BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS FOR DRIVERS. THISIS A RECIPE FOR HYDROPLANING EVEN FOR MORE SNOW CAPABLE VEHICLESIF YOU ARE DRIVING TOO FAST. WATER WILL TEND TO ACCUMULATE INRUTS ALREADY CARVED OUT BY PREVIOUS DRIVERS...SO UP TO TWO INCHESOF STANDING WATER CAN MAKE HYDROPLANING MUCH MORE LIKELY. DRIVESLOWER AND MORE CAUTIOUSLY...AND BE PATIENT WITH DRIVERS OF LESS Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Heading west over Snoqualmie pass yesterday, I didn't see a lick of snow at highway level. The peaks had a dusting. Hoping to see some snow on the highway during the drive back after the holiday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I don't know if we have ever had something good show up in the models and it has progressed from day one with no push back...I could be wrong though. People tend to loose hope way too quickly around here!Dec 2013 event was foreseeable to some degree as early as Nov 24th. For the most part it trended colder until it reached inside 7 days and then it was minor adjustments (mostly warm) as the models better accounted for terrain in the medium range. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 wow, you are bitter fella. and hr 240 doesn't even look good btw. That's the last time I'll throw that one back at you, I promise. I find it funny when someone gives another person flack for the triviality of their concerns when theirs are equally trivial at times, that's all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 18z in 1 hour 10 minutes!!!! 12z runs, yeah, not so good. I was a bit surprised the ensembles weren't worse. Short-mid term worsened, but long range improved. Some chilly/cold members beyond day 10. Both 12z GFS/CMC ENS 500mb anomalies are unchanged from previous days showing the positive anomaly/ridging retrograding towards 160 W after day 10. That's what we'd want to see. I've been impressive with the remarkable run to run consistency for this. On the operational runs there are a few problems with the 500mb pattern/evolution. The main issue I see is energy moving off Asia is way too strong with one deep low after another racing towards the Aleutians/western AK. They serve to smash down the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska as it tries to build as well as shoves it eastward quickly. However, PNA, EPO look very favorable as we head into December for the east Asian jet to relax and blocking to take over the north Pacific. That's the plan anyways! This is a large scale pattern change with many features, so it is a lot for models to resolve and handle. We may not see any good/cold model runs for awhile. Patience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Dec 2013 event was foreseeable to some degree as early as Nov 24th. For the most part it trended colder until it reached inside 7 days and then it was minor adjustments (mostly warm) as the models better accounted for terrain in the medium range. What did SLE end up at for 850mb temps? Was it -14C or -16C Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The slow descent into cooler anomalies is still on track. Blocking in the general area you want it, just not amplified enough yet. Potentially favorable fantasyland potential blocking patterns have definitely been on the increase since 2006 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Heading west over Snoqualmie pass yesterday, I didn't see a lick of snow at highway level. The peaks had a dusting. Hoping to see some snow on the highway during the drive back after the holiday.They got a few inches last night. I bet they'll have close to a foot on the ground by the weekend. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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