December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Must be getting to close to a foot here now...

 

[Phil]

18z shows literally no precip for you guys days 6-10 and beyond.

 

get_orig_img.gif

That's worthy of a screenshot.

[luminen]

Stay positive guys! Things are definitely different this season, so we'll all get another chance at some big snows.

[Deweydog]

I think this sums up the current model situation:

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Oci1CuCht7E

[Front Ranger]

Salem not bumped to 48

 

Yet PDX still at 33, SEA at 34, and BLI at 30. Impressive.

[Phil]

Must be getting to close to a foot here now...

 

Nice! Was going to 'like' this but apparently I've reached my quota for the day.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Must be getting to close to a foot here now...

 

*sigh* It kinda is starting to feel like salt being rubbed into a wound...    Pretty though!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yet PDX still at 33, SEA at 34, and BLI at 30. Impressive.

Most impressive cold rain we have seen in awhile. I am so glad it has worked out this way. 

[chopper 918]

OMG! 18z not only sucks in the short term but sucks even more in the mid-long range... Every Run just gets worse and worse. Epic Failure with so much potential in the large scale setup.

You're too much dude. Comical.

 

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/fighting/hair-fire.gif

[Front Ranger]

Yes! At least we would get snow in the mountains... 

 

At this point, is that really a concern? The mountains have tons of snow, and will have tons more 4 days from now.

[Kayla]

Wow, one 18z run and this place gets flipped upside down!

[Chewbacca Defense]

temps here in NE Bellingham made it to 30, and now back down to 28.8.  I doubt we have more than 1" - 1.5" at my house.  I would love to get more but will take what I can get!

[luvssnow_spokane]

At this point, is that really a concern? The mountains have tons of snow, and will have tons more 4 days from now.

nope, I lied... getting snow here is.

[Front Ranger]

Wow, one 18z run and this place gets flipped upside down!

 

The warning shot has lost its luster.

[Phil]

[Heavy Snow]

Euro suggests any snow that falls from Tuesday onward in Portland isn't going anywhere for awhile. Maybe 3-4" on the ground as the real Arctic air arrives toward the weekend.

 

I would love to go into this real Arctic air with some snow cover. I think chances are high of this occurring.

[Phil]

You're losing your edge, Fred.

[Weather101]

Let it get cold, worry about the precip later.

[Timmy]

Server issues?

[Weather101]

I'll take this: for us up in Vancouver, BC

 

50 Shades of Van

50 Shades of Van – ‏@50ShadesofVan

 

I don't see everyone transitioning to rain through weekend. If you're 100-200m ASL..frankly you may just stay wet snow b4 next arctic air

[Bryant]

 

More horrible than 40 degree rain?

Would prefer it honestly

[Randyc321]

My temp is retreating again at this point.  Reached as high of 38.  Back down to 36.

Both temps and dew points falling right now.

I'm only a degree above the forecast low for the night already, but the temp is falling at a decent rate.??

[Randyc321]

My temp is retreating again at this point.  Reached as high of 38.  Back down to 36.

Both temps and dew points falling right now.

I'm only a degree above the forecast low for the night already, but the temp is falling at a decent rate.??

Oh yeah.  Still a couple of inches hanging around as well.

 

From this morning and last night

[Heavy Snow]

We might have something here with the updated run of the 18z NAM. Shows a similar solution to what the EURO showed. A Low headed into Oregon on Tuesday. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120918/namconus_T850_nwus_53.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016120918/namconus_ref_frzn_wus_52.png

[Geos]

Server issues?

 

Seems to be.

 

Barely touched 33° today, back down to 32.1° now. Never totally went to pure rain. Was flurrying a few minutes ago.

[MossMan]

Topped out at 33.1 back down to 32.6 now and nothing really melted. So much for the warm up today and I'm good with that!

[Heavy Snow]

The 18z NAVGEM also showing something the EURO showed, granted a little slower. Shows a Low sending moisture through Oregon and into Washington Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This map just shows precipitation, not type but it would most likely be all snow for PDX Metro and North as it pulls cold gorge east winds as it heads east.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016120918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_17.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016120918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_18.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016120918/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_19.png

[Kayla]

Made it up to 32º (briefly) and now it's back down to 30º with ZR continuing. Lots of trees and large branches down in the area. Just horrible conditions out there.

[Timmy]

Kptv is going with highs at freezing next Thursday and Friday. Not often you see that a week out!

[Heavy Snow]

Made it up to 32º (briefly) and now it's back down to 30º with ZR continuing. Lots of trees and large branches down in the area. Just horrible conditions out there.

 

Wow, when do you think you might start finally thawing out?

[Perturbed Member]

Was this supposed to happen?

 

Salem under a south wind reached 49 as of 3 PM. The east winds somehow took back over and the temp dropped 7 degrees in 20 minutes followed by another 3 degrees over the next 30 minutes. It is still dropping. 

[Heavy Snow]

Was this supposed to happen?

 

Salem under a south wind reached 49 as of 3 PM. The east winds somehow took back over and the temp dropped 7 degrees in 20 minutes followed by another 3 degrees over the next 30 minutes. It is still dropping. 

 

No, it was not. 10 degree drop, that's incredible.

[chopper 918]

Was this supposed to happen?

 

Salem under a south wind reached 49 as of 3 PM. The east winds somehow took back over and the temp dropped 7 degrees in 20 minutes followed by another 3 degrees over the next 30 minutes. It is still dropping. 

 

Crazy...any chance the mid layers cool back down below freezing to cool the entire column?

[Jesse]

Am I weird for really liking the 18z?

[Goducks09]

Kptv is going with highs at freezing next Thursday and Friday. Not often you see that a week out!

Hmmm, I thought models were showing highs in the mid to upper thirties. Interesting...

[Timmy]

Crazy...any chance the mid layers cool back down below freezing to cool the entire column?

I had snow mixed in an hour ago at 60'. I heard it was snowing in washougal.

[Timmy]

Am I weird for really liking the 18z?

yes, it is an anomaly that you only like cold anomalies

[Jesse]

Hmmm, I thought models were showing highs in the mid to upper thirties. Interesting...

Things could end up colder than the upper levels would indicate at the surface thanks to healthy snow cover in the Columbia Basin and the Gorge.

[Timmy]

Hmmm, I thought models were showing highs in the mid to upper thirties. Interesting...

the setup we are going into is different in that 850 temps won't be representative of surface temps. Cold offshore flow is great for cold temps!

[Jesse]

yes, it is an anomaly that you only like cold anomalies

I hope you're being sarcastic. I love cold in the winter for its own sake.

 

Studies have shown that cold greatly increases our chances of seeing snow as well.