January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

So we are better off with an inversion or not?

If you have a freezing rain fetish, definitely.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I probably misunderstood ya and took your post as sarcasm. I still need to learn the personalities here.

Yeah it can be tough sometimes. There are some great people here and some valuable info. It is awesome to have you here BTW.

[Perturbed Member]

Well if it helps, I'm moving late next week so I'll be reverse wishcasting the heck out of it.

 

We'd appreciate that. I hope you will continue to visit the forum and post even after you move. 

[luminen]

This is from today. We have more than a foot of snow here for a month now and more to come this weekend.

 

When was the last time something comparable happened here?

[Kayla]

The lack of much of any onshore push being modeled is encouraging. The snow to ice to snow scenario would be exhilarating.

 

As long as the ZR doesn't get too out of control before we can transition back to snow. 

 

I know it's just a couple runs and still several days away but does anyone have analogs to this type of pattern?

[umadbro]

So we are better off with an inversion or not?

Inversions are my favorite!

[Deweydog]

As long as the ZR doesn't get too out of control before we can transition back to snow.

 

I know it's just a couple runs and still several days away but does anyone have analogs to this type of pattern?

2008 was similar, although the low level air mass was much colder and the column only warmed above 32 for about 15 hours or so.

 

A scenario like that seems a little far fetched.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'M impressed.

[seattleweatherguy]

Can that verify and huge rain for cali

[Blizzard777]

My trust in the models lately

[Jesse]

If you have a freezing rain fetish, definitely.

With one or without one?

[Deweydog]

With one or without one?

A fetish or an inversion?

[Kayla]

2008 was similar, although the low level air mass was much colder and the column only warmed above 32 for about 15 hours or so.

 

A scenario like that seems a little far fetched.

 

2008 was my first thought but as you mention the lower levels are warmer this go around. At the same time it seems like we'll have colder air just to our north to pull from. Low placement is critical.

[MossMan]

I talked about it 3 days ago.

Yep credit definitely goes to you if it happens! Thinks snow!!

[BLI snowman]

As long as the ZR doesn't get too out of control before we can transition back to snow.

 

I know it's just a couple runs and still several days away but does anyone have analogs to this type of pattern?

January 10-14, 1979 was somewhat similar.

[Bryant]

Just horrid... I know... Sorry, I have First world problem struggles. I am getting counseling. Be patient

 

Hey, in weather news how much snow you get up there? I have not heard much from you.

I've been laying low... pissed a lot of people off on here. We had 3.5" New Years Eve, about 2.5" remains in the yard currently. A vehicle actually got stuck outside our house last night because it's a sheet of ice

[Kayla]

January 10-14, 1979 was somewhat similar.

 

Thanks, I'll check it out.

[Skagit Weather]

I can't get the wind to die here so I'm still sitting at 27F after a high of 38F. I will be surprised if it ends up cooler than the 18F from this morning.

[BLI snowman]

Thanks, I'll check it out.

Probably the 3rd worst ice storm in Portland history, after February 1-2, 1916 and January 18-19, 1950. Not hoping for something like it.

[Perturbed Member]

Euro 00z shows a widespread 2 inches of snow for PDX Sat-Sun.

[Kayla]

Probably the 3rd worst ice storm in Portland history, after February 1-2, 1916 and January 18-19, 1950. Not hoping for something like it.

 

And the Jan 1979 event was snow, big zr event, then back to snow?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Interesting wind patterns tonight. The outflow died down a bit this evening and things cooled down, but just kicked up again and the temperature rose above freezing and dewpoint has fallen. I noticed a similar thing happening in Abbotsford this evening, there must be some downsloping in play. The side of the city not currently exposed to outflow is much colder.

[Kayla]

Euro 00z shows a widespread 2 inches of snow for PDX Sat-Sun.

 

Yeah and offshore flow continues into Monday.

[BLI snowman]

And the Jan 1979 event was snow, big zr event, then back to snow?

Mostly just zr, followed by some light snow a few days later with a different system. PDX never scoured out as the flow stayed offshore the whole time.

[Deweydog]

F*cking Eugene...

 

He could teach Portland and Vancouver a thing or two about getting snow and then clearing out.

[Perturbed Member]

F*cking Eugene...

 

He could teach Portland and Vancouver a thing or two about getting snow and then clearing out.

 

Lets worry about getting snow first. One thing at a time. 

[Perturbed Member]

NWS forecast calls for all rain Sunday, pretty sure that will not verify. 

[HighlandExperience]

Doesn't mean much right now, but WRF wants to bury western wa and lower mainland BC next week. Again the swamp does well.

[Deweydog]

Block is still going strong at day 8 on the Euro!!!

[MossMan]

Going to be an interesting week.

[HighlandExperience]

Going to be an interesting week.

Potential is there and that is exciting even after all the recent let downs.

[Jesse]

Nice to see PDX warming up the last few hours.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Block is still going strong at day 8 on the Euro!!!

Big block chevy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see PDX warming up the last few hours.

I have to, all the way up to 18.

 

I think PDX finds a way to hit 24 but I could be optimistic.

[James Jones]

PDX back up to 29 at the hour. This cold snap is really overachieving out there.

[Front Ranger]

You clearly aren't reading what I'm saying. I never said we have a greater probability of a better block forming. Just that if one did it would have a higher chance of working out than the current not so favorable block. It's a pretty simple concept, and I'm not even sure why we are arguing it.

Wasn't looking to argue. My point was simple. Bird in the hand...you have a setup right now with real potential, thanks to a strong and persistent block.

 

The posts wishing for it to die ASAP in hopes that this will lead to a better pattern down the road just seemed odd to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was thinking earlier what weak a** cold this is. PDX is mixed so they stay in the upper 20s. When I was in Oklahoma a couple weeks ago we had a low of 0 with 15-20mph winds. That is real cold at the 37th parallel.

[Brennan]

The lack of talk about forecast models is pretty surprising.. One loan mention of the EURO... You'd think we were looking at weeks of split flow coming up.. I can understand everyone is gun shy. But hey, we live for moments like these! This is why we spend our free time on a gosh darn weather forum. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The lack of talk about forecast models is pretty surprising.. One loan mention of the EURO... You'd think we were looking at weeks of split flow coming up.. I can understand everyone is gun shy. But hey, we live for moments like these! This is why we spend our free time on a gosh darn weather forum.

Honestly, there is a ton of speculation and angst about getting screwed again. I do think people are a bit researved which honestly is okay and probably wise. I can guarantee if it shows the goods 2 days out this place will be going ape crazzy. --- right now it is just wing and prayer they verify, which lately has not meant a hell of a lot.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice to see PDX warming up the last few hours.

PDX-DLS back up to -4.3mb. Pressure rising at The Dalles/Spokane