February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Tenochtitlan]

noooooo snow gods whyyyyyy

[MikeInEverett]

Looks like another band of snow moving up the sound right now.

[Perturbed Member]

I wouldn't freak out yet, it is the NAM and it has been all over the place and behind the other models with this whole event. 

[Perturbed Member]

ugh....

 

06z GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_13.png

[Dave]

31.5 degrees.  Freezing rain.  Just what I always wanted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 with ZR here right now. 

 

EURO ensemble was the best yet for snow.

 

06z NAM looks fantastic.

 

06z GFS NOT fantastic, But does seem to have one of the better ensemble runs...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z NAM gives SLE about 5" of snow, EUG 10", PDX 1-3"

[Jbolin]

You're a troll. And you don't know s**t.

Git him

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Reading the PDX NWS AFD you would not have any idea there was the potential for snow Sunday/Monday.

[Jbolin]

Starting to snow again here in West Seattle now.

[MossMan]

Reading the PDX NWS AFD you would not have any idea there was the potential for snow Sunday/Monday.

And then reading the Seattle AFD it sounds like old man winter is about to pound us which is a huge shift from their previous AFD's...

[MossMan]

32 degrees here with about a 1/4" of frozen substance on the ground that fell overnight.

[TT-SEA]

If the 12Z runs follow the 06Z GFS then the NWS was right to be conservative.

 

I have not read the overnight AFD... but if they went all in then that will be the cause of a massive southward shift in the models this morning.  

[ShawniganLake]

30f with moderate snow here. About 1/2" on the ground.

[TT-SEA]

30f with moderate snow here. About 1/2" on the ground.

 

 

Exact same conditions here.

[Dave]

30 degrees.  Just enough ZR to fully encase your vehicle.  Probably a 1/4 inch.  Blech.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like we got some freezing rain. Currently 31 degrees. The roads don't seem bad, but everything else is pretty icy. 

[Tyler Mode]

Just a light coating of ice on the trees and cars this morning in BG.  Temp just below 32.

 

NE Portland, again, different story.  Roads completely covered in ice.

[ShawniganLake]

12z nam and HRRR would indicate 5-8" are likely for the higher elevations of southern Vancouver island today.

[Chewbacca Defense]

We have a dusting here in NE Bellingham.

Temp popped up to 32 at one point last night but is back down around 28-29 now

[Geos]

Sleeting and snowing here at 33°. Light coating on the roads.

[snow maniac]

Got about an inch of snow overnight now it's back and forth from ice rain to snow now. just had to spray off satellite dish it was frozen with ice build up

[Heavy Snow]

The 12z NAM gives PDX over 1.5 feet of snow.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017020312/084/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[TT-SEA]

I have a feeling Portland is going to be the big winner again. 

[luminen]

Just started snowing here. The flakes are healthy at least.

[snow_wizard]

Had a delightful mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain here. Enough to make the ground a little bit white. Currently 31.

[ShawniganLake]

I have a feeling Portland is going to be the big winner again.

Unreal. Someone in the puget sound must have pissed off Mother Nature pretty bad back in 2012.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z NAM gives PDX over 1.5 feet of snow.

 

It's the NAM...

[luminen]

How are those schools doing Tim? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z NAM gives PDX over 1.5 feet of snow.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017020312/084/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

I would get screwed with only 8" while SLE gets over a foot!  

[luminen]

I would get screwed with only 8" while SLE gets over a foot!

 

Not to mention the balmy Oregon coast would get hammered.

[FroYoBro]

The 12z NAM gives PDX over 1.5 feet of snow.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017020312/084/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

Seems reasonable. 

[MossMan]

I have a feeling Portland is going to be the big winner again.

We are far from resolved with this I have a feeling. Very complex pattern that models are struggling big time with.

[TT-SEA]

How are those schools doing Tim? 

 

School is open and on time... although its really slick out there.

[Heavy Snow]

It's the NAM...

Yeah I know. I was just posting it for fun.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The 12z NAM gives PDX over 1.5 feet of snow.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017020312/084/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

NAM must mean "Northern Areas Marginalized". 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You gotta remember though, the 06z NAM had everything about 100 miles south, so it is bouncing around a lot right now. Could set up 100 miles north of PDX or 100 miles south. But someone from EUG to BLI is going to score big. 

[MossMan]

Light snow falling now, everything is white. 32 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lets also note how terrible the newly refined WRF did last night. It showed snow in much of the Willamette Valley and PDX. As we know that was ZR. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RPM is a lot like the 6z GFS. Big snow for EUG.

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_12z.jpg