SnowPlz Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Assuming heavy enough precip reaches there, yeah a quick inch or two seems doable. Surprised your DP is that high. Same dew point on Bainbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: You really think 1-2” tonight here? That would be surprising to me but then again everything has been surprising this week. Temps at the moment don’t really support snow 38 DP 35…but I’d imagine things will cools down and the DPs drop when the easterly winds kick in more. Temp has dropped back to 34 here with a DP of 29 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, SnowPlz said: Same dew point on Bainbridge Offshore flow will increase and the DPs will drop more. Tonight could go either way for places near the sound on the I-5 corridor. I’m kinda not feeling this one working out myself but it could happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Just checked Seatacs web site and Alaskas website, most flights are still scheduled for departure this evening, including AS814 to SFO. There are some cancellations, more than normal for sure, but most flights are still happening tonight on Alaska out of Seatac. My friend might have just been pissed and said all flights. his was the 930 which is cancelled. I don't see the reason listed but he said they told him it was weather related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 44F and clouding up. Nice day! Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: one of these times it will be right lol 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: My friend might have just been pissed and said all flights. his was the 930 which is cancelled. I don't see the reason listed but he said they told him it was weather related. That makes sense. And the weather could have been somewhere else. Maybe they could rebook him on the other flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said: I say this then look at the latest EPS and PNA isnt positive but gets really close to neutral near midmonth. Epo also flirts with going positive in about a week then relatively neutral. Strongest negative anomalies for teleconnects are NAO and AO being negative. But what about the CFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 After looking at the teleconnections for the next couple weeks and the ensembles, I feel like the next few days are the best shot at a little snow for awhile. Pattern won’t be favorable again until at least the 20th I believe and that kinda sucks. Just hope the mountain snow doesn’t melt too much between now and then. Also, that 18z I’m betting is a huge outlier. An SSW event would be welcomed right about now. Any word on that guys? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: God, I hate this model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: But what about the CFS? I never look at it. Been laughed at enough referencing it in the past. Usually stick to weeklies or GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: one of these times it will be right lol February 2019 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: After looking at the teleconnections for the next couple weeks and the ensembles, I feel like the next few days are the best shot at a little snow for awhile. Pattern won’t be favorable again until at least the 20th I believe and that kinda sucks. Just hope the mountain snow doesn’t melt too much between now and then. Also, that 18z I’m betting is a huge outlier. An SSW event would be welcomed right about now. Any word on that guys? More like late January, but most likely February until the pattern resets, and even then we have to hope that it just doesn't reset with a dominant SW flow. To quote you, "I, High Desert Mat, have declared that winter is over and it will never snow again." and you would most likely be correct in that statement, should it only apply to your part of Oregon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: February 2019 Except for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: February 2019 I dont think I was model riding really yet at that time. Did it show a crazy map like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhoffine Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Seriously, this inbound moisture looks crazy... is Aberdeen getting snow or rain right now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Snownerd3000 said: I dont think I was model riding really yet at that time. Did it show a crazy map like this? Some greens over the sound on some of those runs 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Didn't Alaska have a bunch of issues over the summer too? Seems like they need to get their stuff together. Everyone acts like Alaska is so great, but they are incredibly expensive, and don't seem to be super reliable. We love Alaska Airlines, have used them many times and never had a problem. The rewards program is one of the best in my opinion and we have taken several mostly free flights and used the companion ticket to save money over the years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: You sure your 42 is correct? I checked stations around there and most were 35-38. It's a good weather station (belongs to my neighbor), but its a home set up so it can be off a degree or two, but usually not too much. Ferry terminal says 38 now, weather station says 40, so it's certainly possible it's the station lying to me. The weird thing is the station is usually lower than the terminal, so I guess that is more reason to think it's off a bit for whatever reason. Either way, I'll report whatever is falling when it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, administrator said: USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST Night shift privileges revoked! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: I dont think I was model riding really yet at that time. Did it show a crazy map like this? It was the one time that I recalled it leading the way. It was mocked endlessly and got the last laugh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Some greens over the sound on some of those runs THE TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW BARE AND WET SO ITS OBVIOUS IT ISN'T SNOWING followed by LOOKS LIKE IT TURNS TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW PER THE 9.3Z ON THE ICON-PANASONIC-HRRRRDP. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, administrator said: THE TRAFFIC CAMERAS SHOW BARE AND WET SO ITS OBVIOUS IT ISN'T SNOWING followed by LOOKS LIKE IT TURNS TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW PER THE 9.3Z ON THE ICON-PANASONIC-HRRRRDP. Good times. The desiccated pile of e-waste I buried beneath the Thornton Creek tributary has been hinting at a ridge around Christmastime. Maybe some retrogression afterwards. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thickhog Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Even the fantasy model knows the south PDX metro isn't getting snow 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 18Z ECMWF is back to showing precip making it all the way into King County and is more snowy than the 12Z run. 7 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: United is the worst.. "Hold my beer" -Air Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z ECMWF is back to showing precip making it all the way into King County and is more snowy than the 12Z run. Based on what we visually see on radar this looks correct. Possibly an over performing event? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, SnowWillarrive said: Based on what we visually see on radar this looks correct. Possibly an over performing event? Sort of fun having no idea what will happen and just watching the radar. 5 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 And we’re back in business! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Sort of fun having no idea what will happen and just watching the radar. Even though the models show paltry amounts. What we see on the radar looks more impressive than almost anything we saw this past week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 43 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I'd go with 42 and 38, myself. Monday will likely be a little colder than Saturday, too. At least they stayed sub-45 today too. Despite some five minute obs scares. 42/33 here. Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlz Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Based on what we visually see on radar this looks correct. Possibly an over performing event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 Sunday system per the 18Z ECMWF... 3 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 hours ago, jakerepp said: I already moved to AZ for you all. I can't do anything more. Where in AZ are you? Closer to Flagstaff??? Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Sunday system per the 18Z ECMWF... Could you post the WB maps for that system for the GFS and GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Even though the models show paltry amounts. What we see on the radar looks more impressive than almost anything we saw this past week. ECMWF shows .30 of precipitation in Seattle tonight. That is pretty wet. 3 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 The last 5 days so far for this cold snap. Despite it not being very cold we’ve still put up some decent snow numbers. The max of 34 yesterday was fairly impressive. Not easy to get 4 days in a row with measurable snow either. Where I’ve been working the last 2 days near allenmore had probably an inch more in total than I had…just a little more elevation and further from the water is important in these marginal times. 11/28 40/35 11/29 40/31 0.7” 11/30 41/29 1.2” 12/1 34/25 0.8” 12/2 38/24 0.75” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 3, 2022 Report Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Doinko said: Could you post the WB maps for that system for the GFS and GEM? 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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