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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

The Blob

By The Blob
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Best birthday present possible. 

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

A bit over 3/4" as the grass is almost covered. Not bad. More than I expected.

T-Town
T-Town

As others have noted, there’s something about sun on snow…

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luterra Contributor

luterra

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12Z GFS is the first run that seems realistic based on past cold events.  Cold rain followed by snow showers in onshore flow and then brisk NE winds ushering in arctic air.  One or two nights in the single digits (especially if snow cover) followed by an overrunning ice-to-rain transition on Christmas Eve.  Would be the first event like this since Dec. 2013 for the south valley.

Why does no one ever mention Dec. 1972 when talking about historical analogs?  With three consecutive subzero lows, down to -6 at the OSU station, that would seem to be the event of record when it comes to cold.

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

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Posted (edited)

Really seems to be a broad consensus settling on that block getting shriveled and pinched, and some kind of undercutting current of energy punching through on the SW side of the polar lobe as it swings in. I think we're clearly setting ourselves up for some kind of peripheral, battle zone event between about the 20th and 22nd. Gonna be really snowy. (just not here.... maybe).

Edited by BLI snowman
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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Really seems to be a broad consensus settling on that block getting shriveled and pinched, and some kind of undercutting current of energy punching through on the SW side of the polar lobe as it swings in. I think we're clearly setting ourselves up for some kind of peripheral, battle zone event between about the 20th and 22nd. Gonna be really snowy. (just not here.... maybe).

1996. This looks a little further south though for the battle zone.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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luterra Contributor

luterra

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2 minutes ago, luterra said:

12Z GFS is the first run that seems realistic based on past cold events.  Cold rain followed by snow showers in onshore flow and then brisk NE winds ushering in arctic air.  One or two nights in the single digits (especially if snow cover) followed by an overrunning ice-to-rain transition on Christmas Eve.  Would be the first event like this since Dec. 2013 for the south valley.

Why does no one ever mention Dec. 1972 when talking about historical analogs?  With three consecutive subzero lows, down to -6 at the OSU station, that would seem to be the event of record when it comes to cold.

Also eight consecutive record lows in 1972 at the OSU station, though one of them got beat in 2013.

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Terreboner Mentor

Terreboner

Posted
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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Really seems to be a broad consensus settling on that block getting shriveled and pinched, and some kind of undercutting current of energy punching through on the SW side of the polar lobe as it swings in. I think we're clearly setting ourselves up for some kind of peripheral, battle zone event between about the 20th and 22nd. Gonna be really snowy. (just not here.... maybe).

That's our money pattern over here.

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Really seems to be a broad consensus settling on that block getting shriveled and pinched, and some kind of undercutting current of energy punching through on the SW side of the polar lobe as it swings in. I think we're clearly setting ourselves up for some kind of peripheral, battle zone event between the 20th and 22nd. Gonna be really snowy. (just not here.... maybe).

Just a gut feeling but I think that battlezone is going to be well north of us. 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Incoming on Monday now... a day later than the 00Z run.

Wind map for late morning on Monday tells the tale... the NE wind punches through up around Bellingham while the SW wind persists around Seattle.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-1472800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Just a gut feeling but I think that battlezone is going to be well north of us. 

 There's gonna be a whole mess of cold air really close by us with what appears to be pretty good potential for dramatic seepage into the Basin. And with the gorge it doesn't take 522dm heights overhead to score major events when we're on the periphery (December 1968, January 1980, January 1998, February 2021). Those details likely still won't be remotely sorted out for several days.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Temps at 4 p.m. on Monday... arctic air is in place up north and sliding south.

Definitely slower though... the 00Z run had 12 degrees in Bellingham at that time.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-1494400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

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23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just so everyone knows that might be newer here…The models have done this with every event since January 2012. The pull back before the snap back. I think we will be okay. 

I’m rooting for a 2011-style bust. It’s been a long time and we’re due.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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