PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Basically yes. And there is a very good reason for this: climo.

Mild and rainy is the norm west of the Cascades. Therefore, a clown range model calling for it is much more likely to verify than one calling for cold and snow.

Thank you for playing.

Climo doesn't work in this new world 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Who said a regionwide event was not possible? Rain for all!

 

Looks dry in Eugene.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Basically yes. And there is a very good reason for this: climo.

Mild and rainy is the norm west of the Cascades. Therefore, a clown range model calling for it is much more likely to verify than one calling for cold and snow.

Thank you for playing.

I feel like climo is a cop out.  Its average weather when what we have seen isn't average.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Looks dry in Eugene.

Good catch. I will try harder next time.

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the EURO caves tonight we will need to crown the GFS the new KING. We should be getting a preview of early returns in about 3 1/2 hours with the GLOBAL ICON. 

But GFS can only be king if its promised 40" of snow hits downtown Seattle next week. 

[MossMan]

25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Will trend south. It is a time-honoured tradition that Portland gets mostly ice during winter weather events.

Sorry, I don’t make the rules, I just report them.

Yeah that would be unprecedented time up here since we simply do not get ice storms in this area. Goofy models. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 2.92" of precip so far this month. But it does look like we might start catching up the last week of the month?

[Deweydog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Only 2.92" of precip so far this month. But it does look like we might start catching up the last week of the month?

Careful, you’ll get labeled a climophile…

[Cascadia_Wx]

PDX up to 40, lol.

[Randyc321]

You guys got this figured out yet?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX up to 40, lol.

EUG made it to 50 today yet?

[Jbolin]

Yup, pretty much.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

You guys got this figured out yet?

Not even the NWS does 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

You guys got this figured out yet?

Pattern lock for continued weenieism and drama on this forum.

[umadbro]

Not that I’ve really believed any of this because it’s all just been too good to be true. Usually a 4-7 days before any good event the models do a pull back before shifting back into what’s been advertised. It happens all the time. We are at that point.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I want my cross polar flow back.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX up to 40, lol.

They randomly spiked 3F in 13 minutes...

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pattern lock for continued weenieism and drama on this 

The weenie'ism started early today, I expect a Cat-6 Kielbasa landfall of epic weinieness about 1030 pm tonight.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pattern lock for continued weenieism and drama on this forum.

I'm going for 8-12" in Seattle, 8-12" in Tacoma, 8-12" in Olympia, 8-12" in Portland, 8-12" in Salem, 8-12" in Eugene, and the big winner with over 2 inches of 35 degree rain?  That would be Vancouver, BC.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They randomly spiked 3F in 13 minutes...

Reporting thick low clouds, no wind shift, and with the sun basically going down. I can’t figure that station out sometimes.

[Terreboner]

Just now, JSnowlin said:

The weenie'ism started early today, I expect a Cat-6 Kielbasa landfall of epic weinieness about 1030 pm tonight.

Cat-3 for most of the members here.  Let's not be that generous.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

The weenie'ism started early today, I expect a Cat-6 Kielbasa landfall of epic weinieness about 1030 pm tonight.

We going back in time to oktoberfest?

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Not that I’ve really believed any of this because it’s all just been too good to be true. Usually a 4-7 days before any good event the models do a pull back before shifting back into what’s been advertised. It happens all the time. We are at that point.

gotta love the model run turbulence

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I want my cross polar flow back.

Only a few hours now.  Between all the models one surely will deliver the goods. Money is on Euro staying consistent.  We can moderate later

 

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I'm going for 8-12" in Seattle, 8-12" in Tacoma, 8-12" in Olympia, 8-12" in Portland, 8-12" in Salem, 8-12" in Eugene, and the big winner with over 2 inches of 35 degree rain?  That would be Vancouver, BC.

Portland must be getting that much snow due to the east wind density. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Even though we have lost the TIM model, birds have massively increased their bird seed consumption in my bird feeder over the last few days…It’s coming. 

I’ve also noticed a lot of bird activity in my yard including Robins that I hardly ever see anymore.  Just like Arctic fronts  

[Tyler Mode]

Jet blast killed the station...

[Blizzard777]

37 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

Someone tell me how to feel 

 

[RCola]

1 hour ago, Winterdog said:

I really hate to see the east coast get cold and snowy for Christmas while we get warm rain.  This is going the way 90% of our hoped for cold outbreaks go.  39 after a so far high of 40, overcast all day.

It would suck if that were the case, but we've gotten lucky the last few years here in the PNW around the holidays. There are many on the East Coast, specifically the I95 corridor south of NYC, that haven't had a White Christmas in 13 years, if not more. They are due.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I'm going for 8-12" in Seattle, 8-12" in Tacoma, 8-12" in Olympia, 8-12" in Portland, 8-12" in Salem, 8-12" in Eugene, and the big winner with over 2 inches of 35 degree rain?  That would be Vancouver, BC.

Sorry, not believable.

Try 8-12" in Seattle and dry Fraser outflow and blowing tumbleweeds for Vancouver.

[Kolk1604]

18z EMCWF 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, RCola said:

It would suck if that were the case, but we've gotten lucky the last few years here in the PNW around the holidays. There many on the East Coast, specifically the I95 corridor south of NYC, that haven't had a White Christmas in 13 years, if not more. They are due.

December has torched pretty hard the past decade in a lot of the east

[weatherwonder]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

It would suck if that were the case, but we've gotten lucky the last few years here in the PNW around the holidays. There many on the East Coast, specifically the I95 corridor south of NYC, that haven't had a White Christmas in 13 years, if not more. They are due.

Model Noise!

Its coming!

Its going to cold and snow in the PNW!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

18z EMCWF 

How does it compare? Side by side frames?

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

18z EMCWF 

How does it compare to the 12z?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

18z EMCWF 

Thank you for posting. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

How does it compare? Side by side frames?

Looks like it's going places regardless.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Doinko said:

How does it compare to the 12z?

I don't see any changes. 

[Kayla]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I don't see any changes. 

It's very similar. Just a tad slower with the arctic air progression though.