fubario Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: don't want 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: GEFS looks like it wants to have the Westerlies break through around day 9? Quite a change from other runs. 18Z vs 00Z And the Jetstream, same comparison It seems like the GEFS is so much more volatile that the EPS after about day 7. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: GEFS looks like it wants to have the Westerlies break through around day 9? Quite a change from other runs. 18Z vs 00Z And the Jetstream, same comparison More chance for northerly flow to continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, umadbro said: Is this the regional event we’ve all been waiting for? feeling like a very familiar AR transition event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Blue sky!! 1 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 The GFS/GEFS has walked to the end of the plank…good chance it falls off the deep end with the 00z run (in a good way) 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SouthHillFrosty Posted December 14, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Ayo 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Ayo Is there an ice accumulatio ensemble mean by any chance? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, MWG said: Every Judah gets his day. 3 1 2 1 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1:15pm Seattle NWS discussion.. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...An active period of weather is expected next week, with uncertainty regarding the troughing trajectory located across British Columbia over the weekend. Guidance has slowly come into at least slightly better agreement in the weather pattern, which is discussed in this section. The ensemble members for ECMWF/GFS/CMC have slowly come into a bit better agreement of stalling the colder air on Sunday into British Columbia, with more moderate temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. This better agreement is noted on the WPC Cluster Analysis for the 24 hour period ending 00z Monday. GFS continues to have a bit more in the way of ridging influence during this period, compared to ECMWF/CMC, although the difference on Sunday isn`t overly significant so there isn`t that much spread in temperatures (only 5 degree spread on NBM using 25-75th percentile). However, with the boundary slowly sliding south, the potential for increasing Fraser Outflow exists on Sunday, for a bit better of a chance of rain/snow mix, primarily for Whatcom/Skagit Counties with lower snow levels in this area to near 500 feet. Troughing will continue to be focused over British Columbia into Monday, with a bit more in the way of uncertainty into precipitation type and the amount of colder air that filters into Western Washington. NBM snow levels on Monday range generally from 500-1200 ft, with surface base snow levels for Whatcom County. Guidance/ensembles slowly introduce the better chance of rain/snow beginning Monday morning with likely lingering showery precipitation. Another weather system may move through the area Monday night-Tuesday timeframe for another round of precipitation, with increasing potential for accumulating snowfall for portions of the lowlands. By Wednesday there is certainly a bit more significant spread in the guidance as to the extent of troughing influence across the Pacific Northwest, or rather ridging that builds offshore. Compared to the ensemble mean, approximately 50% of ECMWF/GFS/CMC ensembles lean towards a colder solution, and 50% a bit warmer due to additional ridging. Due to this uncertainty and spread in guidance have opted to keep with NBM forecast. Either way, colder temperatures are expected on Wednesday with increasing northerly flow, potentially setting up another overrunning event later in the week. It will be important to continue monitoring forecasts over the next week. JD && 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Requiem said: That's the one saving grace-- models have been persistent with some pretty great low level cold out of the Gorge. Unfortunately the nature of our overrunning systems means I'd hedge bets on it being ZR. Exactly. I would prefer it not to be below freezing for that reason. The south wind will win out over the gorge outflow for most of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Deweydog said: In the meantime, can someone ID this? Not sure. Caught a glimpse of it here earlier, but very brief and then it was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deweydog Posted December 14, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Did a bit of a deeper dive on this thing and it looks like it does have quite a few similarities to January 2004, at least with some of the current realities thrown out by the models. The precursor pattern is starkly different though. 13 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dhoffine Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Did a bit of a deeper dive on this thing and it looks like it does have quite a few similarities to January 2004, at least with some of the current realities thrown out by the models. The precursor pattern is starkly different though. What happened in January 04 for us new folks? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, dhoffine said: What happened in January 04 for us new folks? The ice storm that never ended in parts of PDX. I believe everywhere north and east of the west metro up to Bellingham(?) had snow, though. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziess Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, dhoffine said: What happened in January 04 for us new folks? January 2004 Storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, dhoffine said: What happened in January 04 for us new folks? It was a major low level blast which was quickly followed by a significant overrunning event which heavily affected both metro areas, particularly Portland with the ice. 4 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, Requiem said: The ice storm that never ended in parts of PDX. I believe everywhere north and east of the west metro up to Bellingham(?) had snow, though. The Portland metro had a widespread 6-8" of snow with that storm on the 6th before the transition to freezing rain, which was the same or slightly higher than what most of western WA got. The snow extended down to the mid-Willamette Valley. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Requiem said: The ice storm that never ended in parts of PDX. I believe everywhere north and east of the west metro up to Bellingham(?) had snow, though. We had a lot of snow in Silverton east of Salem. And ridiculous ice. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Looking pretty dynamic up north. 2 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post flya00 Posted December 14, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 Kelowna, BC. It snowed last night, not sure the amount. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, flya00 said: Kelowna, BC. It snowed last night, not sure the amount. What trees are those that still have leaves?? 2 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2022 Report Share Posted December 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ziess said: January 2004 Storm That was actually in the lead up pattern with a surface low that tracked well to the south. Kinda caught everyone a little flat footed. 3 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 January 2004 we had two events. The first around New Years, and the more prolific one a bit later. Out this way closer to the Gorge we had a ton of sleet, not much zr, then 8" of snow and a brutal arctic blast. High temp at my house was 14.9, low 9.5. Pasco dropped to -25. It was fun! 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 45 minutes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: January 2004 we had two events. The first around New Years, and the more prolific one a bit later. Out this way closer to the Gorge we had a ton of sleet, not much zr, then 8" of snow and a brutal arctic blast. High temp at my house was 14.9, low 9.5. Pasco dropped to -25. It was fun! 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 45 minutes And then we torched the rest of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 25 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Did a bit of a deeper dive on this thing and it looks like it does have quite a few similarities to January 2004, at least with some of the current realities thrown out by the models. The precursor pattern is starkly different though. Just checked locally... that was sure a slow transition. The cold spell lasted for 10 days... it finally spiked into the 50s on the 9th. Tons of snow out here on 1/7 and 1/8 which must be similar to the event shown for next Wednesday/Thursday. After that... most of the days were in the 50s out here the rest of January. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 January 2004 I made a big mountain of snow in my backyard that did not melt until the 30th! We had snow on the ground for two weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, umadbro said: Sorry folks, I have to accept blame for the upcoming non event. Yesterday I went and bought covers for my outdoor faucets and sand bags for the bed of my truck. I accept full responsibility for my actions. You will need them. Eventually. - Dewey 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: January 2004 I made a big mountain of snow in my backyard that did not melt until the 30th! We had snow on the ground for two weeks. I remember the parking lot piles hanging around until March that year, despite the mild back half of winter. All the ice had really helped to encase and glaciate the snow and made the piles of it tough to melt. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I remember the parking lot piles hanging around until March that year, despite the mild back half of winter. All the ice had really helped to encase and glaciate the snow and made the piles of it tough to melt. Lovely spring in 2004. And summer too. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: The Portland metro had a widespread 6-8" of snow with that storm on the 6th before the transition to freezing rain, which was the same or slightly higher than what most of western WA got. The snow extended down to the mid-Willamette Valley. And that was after a New Year's storm that dropped a widespread several inches+ from the Willamette Valley to south Puget Sound. In Tacoma, we also picked up a couple inches with the Arctic front on 1/4 (?). 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Lovely spring in 2004. And summer too. Late August was beautiful. I think I blocked the rest of it from my memory. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Jaya is monitoring. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildrootParable Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, jakerepp said: What trees are those that still have leaves?? This was a really weird year for trees dropping their leaves. I've got alders that are STILL hanging on. Our apple tree still has some remaining, too. Very strange. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: And that was after a New Year's storm that dropped a widespread several inches from the Willamette Valley to south Puget Sound. In Tacoma, we also picked up a couple inches with the Arctic front on 1/4 (?). That was a real action packed 10 day stretch. Felt like the Twilight Zone after the previous half decade. There was also another big, unforecasted snowstorm on December 29th that slammed the central Willamette Valley. Salem area had 4-10" and the south suburbs of Portland actually did well. Then there was a nice little BC slider on the 30th-31st that dropped a few inches across the entire I-5 corridor up to YVR. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 18z ECMWF past 2 to Sat nt 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, WildrootParable said: This was a really weird year for trees dropping their leaves. I've got alders that are STILL hanging on. Our apple tree still has some remaining, too. Very strange. Same here on the Front Range. We went through a similar, rapid transition from summery weather through most of October to wintry weather in November, though not as extreme as the PNW. Some trees that are usually bare by late October still have basically dead leaves hanging on. Thanks, Tonga. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 18z ECMWF last few frames. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just checked locally... that was sure a slow transition. The cold spell lasted for 10 days... it finally spiked into the 50s on the 9th. Tons of snow out here on 1/7 and 1/8 which must be similar to the event shown for next Wednesday/Thursday. After that... most of the days were in the 50s out here the rest of January. Yeah, that cold period started right after Christmas with a funky overrunning/suppressed jet system down the valley, then a benign little clipper on the 30th with flat gradients down here dropped 2-3 inches. That was followed by the big valley event on 1/1 which transitioned to a lot of cold onshore flow. We had a lot of snow in the air here on 1/3 leading up to the wind shift on 1/4. So the lead up was very different but anomaly placement and vast separation from the accompanying block is pretty similar. Westerlies were already undercutting effectively as the low level cold arrived. I don’t think there was much of a -NAO component though. 5 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2022 Report Share Posted December 15, 2022 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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