PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Terreboner]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not a rug push but a rug unrolling.

A rug that is thick and white.

Opposite of pull is push, so the saying stands.

[Doinko]

ICON still has the snowstorm. Landfall at Cape Blanco but it's a bit too warm until you get to SW WA

[Perturbed Member]

This is a good low track. I'm not too worried about the P type over PDX given the ICON actually has a warm bias at the surface. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doinko said:

ICON still has the snowstorm

Yep... it digs less energy offshore but still enough to plow in the moisture.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It ends up good for SW WA, but moisture doesn't make it to Seattle and its a little to warm in NW Oregon.

[Cloud]

29 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

00z NAM has a really persistent CZ signature for Snohomish County from hour 66 through the end of the run at hour 84. Snow totals aren't too high (1-3") but a CZ sitting stationary for nearly 20 hours would undoubtedly drop more than that if it really happened.

CZ is welcome to park here! Without reservations.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It ends up good for SW WA, but moisture doesn't make it to Seattle and its a little to warm in NW Oregon.

Slight further southward shift and it could end up good for PDX. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just as I figured... The ICON "stepping back" from its already amazing 18z run still keeps things pretty Arctic, and probably far better than any other operational run will be tonight!

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This is a good low track. I'm not too worried about the P type over PDX given the ICON actually has a warm bias at the surface. 

 

Some similarities there to 2/5/2017, but yeah that track would probably get it done.

[Terreboner]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Just as I figured... The ICON "stepping back" from its already amazing 18z run still keeps things pretty Arctic, and probably more better than any other operational run will be tonight!

How many do we need to load up onto the weenie wagon now?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Slight further southward shift and it could end up good for PDX. 

The whole thing looks odd to me... the trough is well north of its 12Z run but the precip has been slipping south with each run.  

The ECMWF had the same look for Tuesday as the 00Z ICON on a few runs the last couple of days.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Temp up almost 2 degrees in the past hour to 39 here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little snow in the mid-valley. And then heavy rain.

 

[Nov1985]

Even if Control is an outlier, the mean still looks doable.

[NWbyNW]

Down to 32F already. 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS rolling out now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS rolling out now.

The tension is palpable. 

[GHweatherChris]

Honestly, with how chaotic the models have been lately, there will absolutely be no way to call any one of them the winner/drag queen in 7 days.

[Deweydog]

Just to break up the six hour spike in teeth gnashing, a Snoopy refreeze!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Honestly, with how chaotic the models have been lately, there will absolutely be no way to call any one of them the winner/drag queen in 7 days.

Yeah... I was thinking this too.     

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Even if Control is an outlier, the mean still looks doable.

But I guess if the mean changes so significantly every 6 hours... what is the value of the mean? 

[Terreboner]

I'm having DeJa'Vu all over again.  Didn't we do this last night for the 00z as well?  LOL.

Never ceases to be entertaining.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I was thinking this too.     

It is time for the people in charge/overseeing the organizations running these so called global models to admit that billions of dollars have been wasted.  It is baffling and embarrassing that they have honestly gotten worse the last few years with all these so called upgrades.  Obviously we don't expect perfection, but come on, give something that looks like an improvement.

Edited December 16, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[rsktkr]

Just now, Terreboner said:

I'm having DeJa'Vu all over again.  Didn't we do this last night for the 00z as well?  LOL.

Never ceases to be entertaining.

Thrill of the chase.

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A little snow in the mid-valley. And then heavy rain.

 

Looks like an ice storm. BC and far NW WA gets snow out of this too
 

[Requiem]

Just wanted to make a public apology because of a few statements I made a couple days ago that were cruel, unnecessary, and frankly completely unbecoming. 

ICON, I am sorry. I am sorry I called you "trash for everything, including QPF". I apologize for thinking of you as the worst German operational failure since Barbarossa. I like your solutions, I promise. I love your enthusiasm, and I love that you have a passion for keeping lows suppressed. It was wrong of me to try to stifle that, truly. You are the Florence Foster Jenkins of operational models-- you're not great, but just sometimes you bring a smile to all our face. 

Also an apology to all the ICON fans I disrespected in the process. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At face value the progression the ICON shows is actually pretty decent. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

A huge change on the ICON is much higher surface pressure extending off the BC Coast than previous runs..  That is an extremely good sign.

[Weiner Warrior]

GFS a touch colder

[Perturbed Member]

So far so good on the GFS. Gotta see what that low does on Tuesday. Hopefully takes a more ICON looking path. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

So far so good on the GFS. Gotta see what that low does on Tuesday. Hopefully takes a more ICON looking path. 

That's the entire ballgame right now. 

[GHweatherChris]

@Deweydog I am actually having a couple hot dogs right now, quit looking in my windows please.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry internet issue.

[Doinko]

Unfortunately looks like it has some cyclogenesis off of the BC Coast

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's the entire ballgame right now. 

So far that low is a bit stronger and further north. 

[Doinko]

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS is quite a bit worse than the 00Z run last night and we thought that was the worst run possible.   Funny how trends change perceptions.   True in general in life.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GFS actually looks fairly snowy over SW BC and NW WA as early as Sunday morning. It's been awhile since we've had a decent snow going into an outflow. Nice to finally have something within 60 hours.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

@Deweydog I am actually having a couple hot dogs right now, quit looking in my windows please.

You need to trim your bush. My view is for sh*t.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah forget it. Game over for this run.

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew