PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Terreboner]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And here comes the major overrunning event on the 12Z GEM...

 

Does that model show snow totals?....would love to see.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wow so at 120 hours, it's safe to lock this in right? 

If the 12z UKMET and EURO show this then I would say so.

[Timmy]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Does that model show snow totals?....would love to see.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Does that model show snow totals?....would love to see.

Very low resolution... will wait for WBB map

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Fog and 33.3˚F after a low of 28.6˚F.

[Kolk1604]

1pm Wednesday. This really feels like the 12z Euro run from Tuesday... 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Where the heck did all the precipitation go on the GFS and ICON? GFS led the way again. Been showing this solution for a few runs now. GEM and Euro are way wetter. 

If we can count on one thing, it’s that the warmer and drier model is correct. 

[Nov1985]

The I CAN

 

[Terreboner]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

1pm Tuesday. This really feels like the 12z Euro run from Tuesday... 

The gorge is FUKKED!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Where the heck did all the precipitation go on the GFS and ICON? GFS led the way again. Been showing this solution for a few runs now. GEM and Euro are way wetter. 

If we can count on one thing, it’s that the warmer and drier model is correct. 

GFS is way north... GEM is way south.    Its all locked in now.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wow so at 120 hours, it's safe to lock this in right? 

This is what the 12z UKMET showed yesterday at the same timeframe. Hopefully it will show something similar today!

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

If this is legit, GFS really needs to be taken out back and shot.

All models have struggled mightily with this pattern.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mossman after looking at the Canadian.  Wtf is going on lol.

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

This is what the 12z UKMET showed yesterday at the same timeframe. Hopefully it will show something similar today!

Not too shabby in the 00z

[MikeInEverett]

16 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

This week has to be some of the most topsy turvy model riding that I have ever seen.

Seriously. I’ve never seen anything like this in my 10-ish years of model riding. An absolute roller coaster.

[Prairiedog]

9 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not long from now we'll be tracking rain, rainfall totals, flooding, the 200/300mb jet, and then looking and hoping for ridging to develop. What a strange world we're moving into.

How could you forget the ever lurking photoperiods.  It's getting close.   Frogs chorusing.  daffodils.  April snow. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-15 at Burns, OR.

Wow, just looked at their stats for the past month and a half, pretty insane stretch. They ran a -11 departure for November, and are at -9 so far for December, and that will be dropping more over the coming week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Not too shabby in the 00z

12z UKMET at day 5. Looks good.

 

 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Just some slight differences on the GEM five days out. 

Not only am I rooting for this solution for you guys but this ends up working way better for us out here too versus a solution like the GFS is showing. We could seriously score on both sides of the Rockies if the GEM/ICON are right. Pepto for everyone!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Just some slight differences on the GEM five days out. 

Not only am I rooting for this solution for you guys but this ends up working way better for us out here too versus a solution like the GFS is showing. We could seriously score on both sides of the Rockies if the GEM/ICON are right. Pepto for everyone!

This also takes away the Christmas Eve snowstorm for the east coast…..interesting 

[yellowstone]

We’re now at the point that there’s been too many model runs, showing too many options, that have flipped amongst themselves too many times, that my brain is now fried.

Does EURO even show snow anymore?  Is UKMET good, bad, crazy?  Is there alignment for Sunday night even? Idk. 

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Omg could we see an arctic BLAST. The weak arctic front the GEM and icon are showing for western Oregon remind me of 1/5/04. We got about 1-2” of snow with temps in the mid20s with that in the willamette valley, before the overrunning stuff started later that night. 

I'm still pretty skeptical. The upper level pattern support is just so borderline.

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GFS is a genius or it needs to be shot, buried and left for dead. Look at the massive difference at day 4 between it, the GEM and the UKMET

[TacomaWx]

Just when things looked uncertain…it got more uncertain. Things seem to be going in the right direction overall this morning for a more interesting outcome. 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Just some slight differences on the GEM five days out. 

Not only am I rooting for this solution for you guys but this ends up working way better for us out here too versus a solution like the GFS is showing. We could seriously score on both sides of the Rockies if the GEM/ICON are right. Pepto for everyone!

The 6z Control looks similar yeah? 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This also takes away the Christmas Eve snowstorm for the east coast…..interesting 

if this verifies

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

All models have struggled mightily with this pattern.

Some worse than others.

UKMET essentially tripling down is a great indicator that the GFS is severely misguided.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs will be wrong. It will catch up tonight i bet.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This also takes away the Christmas Eve snowstorm for the east coast…..interesting 

Yeah a solution like the GEM keeps a more westward-based storm system over the eastern CONUS next week as it wraps the low back up near the Great Lakes region. A solution like the GFS makes it so the energy doesn't really get it's act together until it nears the East Coast at which point it wraps up into a strong low but only leads to fairly minor accumulations here.

I say we keep with our long-running theme of saying "SCREW EASTCOASTERS" and let's all score instead!

[Christensen87]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Gfs will be wrong. It will catch up tonight i bet.

 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Gfs will be wrong. It will catch up tonight i bet.

Yeah im starting to suspect that it’s very much on its own. It seemed to be leading the way for awhile…but things have started to change overall since the 00z runs last night.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z UKMET at the end of its run out to next Thu 4am.

[Cascadia_Wx]

The 12z GFS could be off its rocker in the short to mid range and beyond, but worth mentioning that even that run took away the torchy period around Christmas.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z UKMET at the end of its run out to next Thu 4am.

I feel confident saying that weird lobe of subzero Fahrenheit temperatures for the north Sound is not happening.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

12z UKMET looks more like the GEM/ICON than the GFS.

 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I feel confident saying that weird lobe of subzero Fahrenheit temperatures for the north Sound is not happening.

You’re right absolutely no sub freezing lows south of the border probably huh

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z UKMET at the end of its run out to next Thu 4am.

Wow. UKMET tripling down, Euro control looks better, ICON and GEM look better too.

With how far south that low on the ICON and GFS are I think we actually have a chance here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a record low at Burns this morning, that belongs to 2008 when they dropped to -21 on this date. That Dec 14-16 airmass in 2008 was fairly legit. 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is having none of this as well and it follows its operational run.  

[runninthruda206]

Winter (un)cancelled?!