PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

PSA:

The NWS always appreciates observations, especially detailed observations that everyone on here is capable of giving.  That can be done thru Twitter, as they often set up a feed for that, or the mPing app.  That can include final snowfall amounts, when the snow starts/stops, precip type, dew point, etc

This helps them with short term forecasts as well as future forecasts as they can learn from them.  A few years ago they had a freezing rain advisory for Leavenworth, but I notified them that the rain was not freezing, temps were above freezing and the roads were fine.  They thanked me and told me that they were able to cancel the zr advisory thanks to my observations.  So yes it helps. 

We all want better forecasts.  Yes, more $ to build better models helps, but the more data they have, the better.  And it can also help to inform the public about conditions.  This will be even more helpful during the possible freezing rain event later this week.   Instead of just complaining about forecasts not verifying, let's be a part of the solution.

Just wanted to bump this for those who didn't see it earlier.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think you’re going to get buried with this one.

I’m thinking 8” minimum. But I wouldn’t be shocked if we had 10-14” 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Base on the 9pm sat. imagery, WVs and projection.... I'm guessing the storm will land near Pacific Beach... this would bode well from Federal Way northward. We'll find out early morning. A little wobble north will be problematic for Central Sound. Very little to no wiggle room here. 

Just north enough of me for 33 degree rain lol, hoping to score a quick inch or 2 before the switch but the main precip shield is refusing to show itself on radar, which is not good.  But the wife might get 3 inches later for sure, who knows.....  

[OysterPrintout]

18 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

FWIW the 00z UKMET still showing 1-2 inches of snow for PDX before the changeover. Somewhat similar to the 18z euro.

The GFS and GEM are both much wetter than the UKMET and Euro now. Getting snow in this situation is such a delicate balance. The front can't be too strong otherwise the aggressive WAA moderates everything too quick, if it is too weak then we can't really wetbulb or get things to accumulate at any reasonable rate. It will take plenty of luck and some magic to get a widespread 1-2 inches out of this. 

Even if the snow doesn't happen, this should still be an impressive and interesting event. Hoping we can keep property damage and power outages to a minimum though. 

 

 

Have really enjoyed your real time model analysis. Good stuff. Been pretty busy lately and cool to see some in-depth analysis for our razor thin marginal event (as usual).

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m thinking 8” minimum. But I wouldn’t be shocked if we had 10-14” 

Looking like Victoria could top a foot.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m thinking 8” minimum. But I wouldn’t be shocked if we had 10-14” 

Dirk?

[OysterPrintout]

On one hand I'm extremely jealous of Seattle but it's also a bit of a relief to not be sweating it out up there. Convincing myself the Euro surface maps at this range are wrong is never fun.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looking like Victoria could top a foot.

Should be a top 10 snowfall there for the month of December 

[MossMan]

22.2! 

[TacomaWx]

This band I’m under isn’t just virga…snowing with tons of tiny flakes but just too warm to stick. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Base on the 9pm sat. imagery, WVs and projection.... I'm guessing the storm will land near Pacific Beach... this would bode well from Federal Way northward. We'll find out early morning. A little wobble north will be problematic for Central Sound. Very little to no wiggle room here. 

You might be looking at the wrong spot. I marked the low on this map. 

[jcmcgaffey]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a great pic!  

It was last minute. Wife said the kids need to go to bed but I couldn’t resist and had to get the last bit of energy out of them. No snow clothes and my oldest son wearing my wife’s boots

[ShawniganLake]

Record temperature summary for bc

 

An arctic airmass over B.C. and Yukon resulted in several overnight 
record minimum temperatures for 19th December 2022. 

The following is a summary of weather event information received by 
Environment & Climate Change Canada as of 4 P.M. PST, 19th December 
2022. 

Summary of record minimum temperatures in degrees celsius: 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
Preliminary new record of -11.7 
Old record of -10.6 set in 1990 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Bella Bella Area (Bella Bella) 
Preliminary new record of -12.8 
Old record of -11.7 set in 2008 
Records in this area have been kept since 1977 

Bella Coola Area (Bella Coola Airport) 
Preliminary new record of -18.8 
Old record of -16.7 set in 1951 
Records in this area have been kept since 1895 

Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) 
Preliminary new record of -37.4 
Old record of -36.8 set in 2008 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of -34.3 
Old record of -30.3 set in 2008 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Dease Lake Area (Dease Lake (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of -42.5 
Old record of -40.0 set in 1951 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
Preliminary new record of -14.2 
Old record of -13.1 set in 2008 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of -20.5 
Old record of -18.7 set in 2008 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
Preliminary new record of -8.2 
Old record of -8.0 set in 1990 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Prince Rupert Area (Prince Rupert) 
Preliminary new record of -15.2 
Old record of -15.0 set in 1964 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of -46.8 
Old record of -40.4 set in 2008 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Quesnel Area (Quesnel Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of -37.5 
Old record of -35.0 set in 1924 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Sandspit Area (Sandspit Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of -7.9 
Old record of -5.7 set in 1990 
Records in this area have been kept since 1945 

Smithers Area (Smithers Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of -33.0 
Old record of -32.8 set in 1951 
Records in this area have been kept since 1938 

Tatlayoko Lake Area (Tatlayoko Lake RCS) 
Preliminary new record of -37.4 
Old record of -33.3 set in 1951 
Records in this area have been kept since 1930 

Williams Lake Area (Williams Lake A) 
Preliminary new record of -35.3 
Old record of -31.9 set in 2008 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

 

[yellowstone]

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You might be looking at the wrong spot. I marked the low on this map. 

That's exactly where I was looking at. And I'm still seeing a possible landfall around Pacific Beach. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Cloud said:

That's exactly where I was looking at. And I'm still seeing a possible landfall around Pacific Beach. 

I agree I looks like it will track south of where most models put it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m thinking 8” minimum. But I wouldn’t be shocked if we had 10-14” 

I'm thinking you get at least a foot.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Maybe going to see the radar fill in around DT Seattle soon?

[Seattle]

.8” of new snow accumulation. Closest station reads 32.4/31.6 with NE 1. Very light snow and some mist.

Might go to bed early and wake up at 4 to track snow (hopefully!)

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This band I’m under isn’t just virga…snowing with tons of tiny flakes but just too warm to stick. 

It’s got a little kick! Sticking to grass here! U have snow correct? Radar shows u under rain 

[Blizzard777]

22 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Winds are dead here too. But there was a nice NE breeze on top of the hill near my house a few hours ago. 

I’m down at the base of a hill so east winds don’t really register here. The east wind is blowing though so I’m good

FYI….still snowing here but no accumulation 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s got a little kick! Sticking to grass here! U have snow correct? Radar shows u under rain 

It’s all snow here. Just a little too warm to stick but it’s coming down fairly good. 

[MikeInEverett]

Pretty sharp cutoff like of precip right on the King-Snohomish county border. Looks like it’s about to fill in a bit more though.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I agree I looks like it will track south of where most models put it.

What do you think? Perhaps Ocean Shores? I think between those two points would would out. 

[thickhog]

Everyone here from PDX should go in on a timeshare in Buffalo.

[Gummy]

2 minutes ago, BurienSnowGlobe said:

Maybe going to see the radar fill in around DT Seattle soon?

Appears some light snowfall should reach Seattle soon yes but the main precip is not set to arrive until 4 AM give or take.

[selkirks]

33º F right now and no precip right now between U-Village and Ravenna. Hoping it picks back up soon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What do you think? Perhaps Ocean Shores? I think between those two points would would out. 

I'd say between Ocean shores and forks and then south in a line to Olympia. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd say between Ocean shores and forks and then south in a line to Olympia. 

Closer to Ocean shores though 

[Hawksfan2008]

Here we go. If it goes due east from here Seattle is good. 

[BurienSnowGlobe]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Appears some light snowfall should reach Seattle soon yes but the main precip is not set to arrive until 4 AM give or take.

It does look like there are some stronger echos heading towards Seattle right now though, I’m no expert at reading radar though. I’ll be up at 4AM ready

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Here we go. If it goes due east from here Seattle is good. 

Its gonna land closer to the north coast.

[MossMan]

Powder! Temp plummeting, down to 21.7

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Everyone here from PDX should go in on a timeshare in Buffalo.

Or government camp…

[Chewbacca Defense]

Joining @MossMan with the deck update:

rates picking up, I cleared most of the deck earlier today, and it has a good coating again.  
 

temp is 14.5

 

 

[thickhog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Or government camp…

Much easier but that didn’t sound as dramatic

[Parrot]

44 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Have to drive to work in Edmonds at 4:30 AM. Should be a doozy.

If my experience living in Edmonds is any indication, as soon as you pass a "welcome to Edmonds" sign there won't even be a trace of snow on the ground lol

[WildrootParable]

Just now, Parrot said:

If my experience living in Edmonds is any indication, as soon as you pass a "welcome to Edmonds" sign there won't even be a trace of snow on the ground lol

Can confirm. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Absolutely ridiculous how wet the models are over the next couple of weeks. We were due I suppose.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Here we go. If it goes due east from here Seattle is good. 

If it goes due east from here on out... the RGEM may be on point. This would slam Central Sound.