PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The interesting thing is the total dud winters back then were just as horrible as the total duds now.

There was still a pretty warm ocean to our west. Although I think it had a different name back then.

[NWbyNW]

Overall, it appears unless you live in Northwestern Washington or Lower Mainland BC, you don't have much snow.  Fro the street cams, Bellingham and the passes are the only places with snow on the freeways.  It is mainly wet roads elsewhere.  Really too bad.  Just south of Everett, it is merely wet roads.  Seattle has some light snow on the sides, and Tacoma is clear completely.  Further south it's just a wet day. East in the passes is a different thing with Stevens Pass and Snoqualmie being snow-covered. Stevens Pass has closed in both directions, but we still got camera shots up there!  Cool.

 

Stevens Pass.

Snoqualmie Pass.

 

Bellingham.

Mount Vernon.

Marysville.

Everett.

Bellevue.

Seattle.

Tacoma.

[T-Town]

32 here with freezing drizzle. Be careful if you’re driving in the Tacoma area. 

[Canadian guy]

9 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Outflow is kicking back in up here. It briefly hit 29.1F, now it's 28F and dropping. I believe this is colder than the ECMWF showed, which was something around 34F for a high. The airmass is coming in colder than modeled.

What are your thoughts on any snowfall this evening and overnight? Looks like the gfs and nam show some. Maybe some straight effect snow as the outflow picks up?

[Terreboner]

 

Pretty cool.  Temps pretty steady tonight and then about late morning, early afternoon tomorrow, they 
start heading down quick.  Then they don't go up a hell of a lot on Thursday.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  16  19  -2   7 /  80  10   0  10
ALW  13  17  -4  10 /  90  10   0  10
PSC  12  17  -4   8 /  40   0   0  10
YKM  10  15  -7   8 /  20   0   0  10
HRI  16  19  -1   9 /  50   0   0  10
ELN   3  10 -11   3 /  20   0   0  10
RDM  32  33   3  16 /  60  10   0  40
LGD  21  24  -1  18 / 100  20   0  10
GCD  30  33   4  25 /  70  20   0  20
DLS  27  27   3  11 /  90  10   0  30

[NWbyNW]

Now mostly rain south of Everett.  Still snow flurries in Everett and north of Everett. Chances are quickly diminishing.  Totally no-show for much of the South Sound.

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I do the 24 hour period map so I can exclude snow that has already fallen.     In this case it would be 24-hour map ending at 4 p.m. Wednesday to pick up snow that falls after 4 p.m. today.

I know it shows snow... but it also showed mid 30s in Seattle this evening with the boundary causing temps to fall.   But if it starts out in the 20s then there might not actually be an arctic front like it shows.    I am not sure.

I have my doubts that my area will see anything else but you never know! 
Temp at 25.2

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Now mostly rain south of Everett.  Still snow flurries in Everett and north of Everett. Chances are quickly diminishing.  Totally no-show for much of the South Sound.

Looks like a little something forming just over the border, must be our arctic front! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Too bad there is no cold air north of this low… Could be a wind event though. This run is a lot cooler overall though, and has a gorge snow/ice event next Friday night. 

[Doinko]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was going through some pics from last December. I know people don’t think Oregon did as well because the cold wasn’t super impressive. But the snow definitely was. 

We managed a subfreezing high on the 29th

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Too bad there is no cold air north of this low… Could be a wind event though. This run is a lot cooler overall though, and has a gorge snow/ice event next Friday night. 

Some low snow levels next Saturday as well. Another low track that would be great for us but there's no cold air

 

 

[JW8]

Santa's comin to town! 

[Blizzard777]

Freezing drizzle or mist…light coating

30*

[TT-SEA]

The radar loop makes me think this might be the arctic front that was scheduled for tonight.    I am totally guessing here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah looks like snow levels drop to the surface New Year’s Eve for the metro area on this run! 

[JW8]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The radar loop makes me think this might be the arctic front that was scheduled for tonight.    I am totally guessing here.

Whatever it is, decent snow rates under it right now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow next weekend actually looks fairly chilly on this run. 

[Chowders]

Quick question.

Is there a place where I can get all the historical daily snowfall data for Winthrop and download in .csv form?

I'm familiar with this site 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=otx

But the best filter there was maximum daily snowfall by calendar day / month.  So if the same day had huge snowfall in different years it only shows the year with the highest.

Maybe I'm just running the report incorrectly.

Looks like January 21st, 1935 is the highest day ever at 52 inches. Hard to actually believe that's accurate.  Higher than any days in Mazama, but Mazama maybe didn't have a weather station in 1935

 

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

11 minutes ago, Canadian guy said:

What are your thoughts on any snowfall this evening and overnight? Looks like the gfs and nam show some. Maybe some straight effect snow as the outflow picks up?

Places further up island typically do better for Strait effect snow and I think there may be some surprises up around Nanaimo-Parksville. One thing I'm watching is how the gradient changes as the interior high sinks south. It induces a small cutoff low behind the departing system just to our west and that could bring us a few more cm. I've seen that happen before with these super cold airmass.

[Prairiedog]

40 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

If this pattern occurred 100 years ago. PDX would be snowing right now. 

Except a south wind 100 years ago still started with an S.  47f right now with southerlies.  Pretty hard to turn that around and make snow out of it no matter what the climate is/was doing, anytime.

[WeatherGeek2022]

8 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Santa's comin to town! 

holy warm up from hell

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow next weekend actually looks fairly chilly on this run. 

More Gorge snow too

 

[Dave]

Meanwhile, Atlanta is forecast to have 3 straight subfreezing highs including a 21/10 spread. Lol. 

 

[AlTahoe]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1948-49, 1956-57, 1978-79, 1992-93, and a few others.  It is pretty rare.

All of those winters were consistently cold down here as well. The GFS and EURO are showing us getting pineapples for a very long time after Christmas. 2005 is almost a perfect match as is 1996-1997. 

If the models are correct my snowpack will go from 4' currently to zero by the first week of Jan. 

[KingstonWX]

NWS pinpoint forecast now advertising 2-4" on Thursday for my location.

[Deweydog]

Big drama #1….

Can PDX drop below 40 by midnight???

[MWG]

23 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some low snow levels next Saturday as well. Another low track that would be great for us but there's no cold air

 

 

We will get some in January!!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The radar loop makes me think this might be the arctic front that was scheduled for tonight.    I am totally guessing here.

If you look at sat it looks like you can see a weak front sliding down. Sure don't look like much. The stuff shown later must be a convergence zone.

[MWG]

Temps have held at 37F and light rain.

[Gummy]

6 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

NWS pinpoint forecast now advertising 2-4" on Thursday for my location.

1-3 or 2-4 for Seattle based on elevation. I am going with whatever the Euro says, which is currently a trace of snow and some sleet.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I love that Bellingham climate. Even though we generally get quite a bit more

snow annually than Bellingham, we literally never get these quality arctic blast snows. 

It’s probably the best thing about living north of the Chuckanut Mountains.

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If you look at sat it looks like you can see a weak front sliding down. Sure don't look like much. The stuff shown later must be a convergence zone.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprisingly good GFS run. 

[Art_Digbee]

Some views from today - about 1000' up Mt. Pickett on the E side of Orcas. Got a few turns in!

Looking SE towards Sinclair Island...

Looking NE towards Lummi and Bellingham.

Doggo

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Surprisingly good GFS run. 

Not bad for early spring.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If you look at sat it looks like you can see a weak front sliding down. Sure don't look like much. The stuff shown later must be a convergence zone.

Good catch... I think you are right.  

[Terreboner]

28 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Whatever it is, decent snow rates under it right now

Strait effect.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not bad for early spring.

What we need to hope is that’s the warmest part of the month. If so we are not in too big of a hole. 

[Terreboner]

And that curl out by Vancouver Island is the same curl that has been out there since early Sunday.  You are noticing it because it is finally on the move.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

So is this band moving south the advertised arctic front, or something else?