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PNW December 2022 - Part II

Guest hawkstwelve

By Guest hawkstwelve
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth,

PSA: The NWS always appreciates observations, especially detailed observations that everyone on here is capable of giving.  That can be done thru Twitter, as they often set up a feed for that, or the mPing app.  That can include final snowfall amounts, when the snow starts/stops, precip type, dew point, etc This helps them with short term forecasts as well as future forecasts as they can learn from them.  A few years ago they had a freezing rain advisory for Leavenworth, but I notified

IOS Link:https://apps.apple.com/us/app/mping/id584383400 Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=edu.ou.cimms.mping&hl=en_US&gl=US&pli=1

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Dave Veteran

Dave

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I developed my weather geekness growing up in south Seattle where snow was hard to come by. I expanded upon it after living in Mukilteo from 1991-1997. Then I lived in Woodinville in 1998 and 1999. It took me a while to realize that it's only a bust when it doesn't hit you personally, but nearly every time something good is predicted, there's somewhere in Western Washington that does truly get the goods. Even the news reporters can't always identify where that will be beforehand though... which is why I feel pretty lucky that for once North Kitsap, where I live now, finally seemed to get the big win on this latest event. Finally. 

After hanging out on this forum for several years, I honestly think that PNW meteorologists have the toughest job of any in the entire country during winter. Western Washington has so many weird microclimates that the current models could not possibly pick up on them with their current resolution, not to mention non the nonexistent radar data in many locations. So many valleys get cold air dammed, have chilly east bleed, exposure to the warm sound, shelter from southern winds, convergence zones etc. The list is too big to go on. You could not do that job well without many years experience winning, failing, learning and getting better, what to trust in the models, what to ignore. It's mind boggling. 

If you are a met in the midwest, imagine having all the best radar coverage in the country by far. Very little terrain to deal with. The best models we have to forecast tornadoes. Radars that pick them up before they even form, etc. That would be easier to forecast, although you'd have to deal with more tragedy.

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TeacherLori
TeacherLori

We continue to have gently wafting snowflakes all morning here in Lynnwood, which allows for one of my all-time favorite hobbies.😍❄️

VancouverIslandSouth
VancouverIslandSouth

Picked up about another inch this evening. Some of the roads are starting to get some legitimate snow banks. Also, noticing more cars nearly completely covered

Brennan
Brennan

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KingstonWX Experienced

KingstonWX

Posted
Posted
Just now, Dave said:

After hanging out on this forum for several years, I honestly thing that PNW meteorologists have the toughest job of any in the entire country during winter. Western Washington has so many weird microclimates that the current models could not possibly pick up on them with their current resolution, not to mention non the nonexistent radar data in many locations. So many valleys get cold air dammed, have chilly east bleed, exposure to the warm sound, shelter from southern winds, convergence zones etc. The list is too big to go on. You could not do that job well without many years experience winning, failing, learning and getting better, what to trust in the models, what to ignore. It's mind boggling. 

If you are a met in the midwest, imagine having all the best radar coverage in the country by far. Very little terrain to deal with. The best models we have to forecast tornadoes. Radars that pick them up before they even form, etc. That would be easier to forecast, although you'd have to deal with more tragedy.

I fully agree, it's super tough here and I like to think we must have some of the best in the nation because of that. However, no matter how good you are, how smart you are, or how much you understand our microclimates, they still make it impossible to accurately predict. What they did during the last event isn't what they will do on the next one and so on.

I do find it funny when I geek out on a midwest friend's weather and get fascinated at the ability to accurately predict timelines for precip, type of precip, etc. 250+ miles in advance though. It's crazy to see precip stay in place across hundreds of miles and move across the map in a totally uniform process when you're used to watching PNW radars. 

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VancouverIslandSouth Experienced

VancouverIslandSouth

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Man, I just missed it. We were vacationing in Victoria last weekend. Took the Clipper over from Seattle but had to leave Monday. At least Monday felt pretty arctic walking around downtown with flurries and wind chills in the teens Fahrenheit. And the Butchart Gardens light display was awesome.

Ah that's too bad, though you'd probably be stuck here another day if you did catch it. Monday was a good teaser but it really got going into the evening. Could get another inch or two this evening at this rate. There are bands of moderate snow forming over the southern tip of the island now, looks like a convergence sort of feature:

image.png.f37a778d46d15cc09137dc7c0bf503c0.png

 

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HuskyMaestro Mentor

HuskyMaestro

Posted
Posted

Kraken win and very tiny snowflakes continue to fall around here just enough for a dusting. I’ll take it! 

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Whats your snow total right now? I feel like this might be the first time ever I have more than you, but not by much.

7”! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Seattle Proficient

Seattle

Posted
Posted

Lower levels are still pretty moist. DPs tracking close to temps. It’s only 30/27 at SEA. Would that help juice any convergence or more so arctic boundary? 

2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Anyone have the 0Z Euro map for tonight? Wondering if the precip bullseye is still on my location.

Next 6 hours... doesn't look right to me.   Arctic fronts are impossible for the models to handle.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-1624000 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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