PNW December 2022 - Part II

[RCola]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m not happy. They always get goods. 

The last time I can remember the Mid-Atlantic having snow on the ground for Christmas is 2009, and that event happened a full week before the holiday. It's not that common in December to get something like this. 

I've been saying this for a week now, but I hope that, if the Mid-Atlantic breaks its December curse, maybe we have hope for mid- to late- January in the PNW.

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just compared the 12Z ECMWF to the 18Z GFS... and the 12Z ECMWF had the trough significantly to the south and west of the 18Z GFS on Sunday evening.   So the 18Z GFS is still worse than the ECMWF.

Its possible the GFS is just compromising with the ECMWF.  I would expect the models to meet on a solution soon now that its almost within 3 days.  

And unfortunately the tangible surface level outcomes for most of us really don't change too much either way at this point, even with the 500mb differences. I think we're effectively set on the nature of what this event will be now, at least for the majority of the forum.

I realize the UKMET has a significantly different outcome, but it's a major outlier now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Big weather coming next week. 

[Slushy Inch]

Good GEFS trends. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m not happy. They always get goods. That’s like being happy for Sam bankman

seriously, buffalo is already scoring the snow lottery this year. when is it our turn in december?

[Deweydog]

Seems like the “something special is happening this year” air has been sucked out of the room. Maybe I’m misreading it….

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, RCola said:

GFS showing a classic beat down for the East Coast from Richmond to Boston Christmas Eve Eve. If we can't get something good, I'm glad they are. They are due, especially Richmond to Philly. Will be in the area around that time, so if we do get something, I'll post pictures.

Always have low expectations around here in December. Keep in mind we average more snowfall in March than in December.

Six days ago, guidance was projecting a large snowstorm for today. Ended up being 1hr of sleet then 2” of 35°F rain.

Still it’s the best pattern we’ve seen in December since 2009 and 2010, so this could be it. Then again, 2010 still managed to pull the rug 48hrs out, so I won’t feel comfortable until the snow starts falling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Seems like the “something special is happening this year” air has been sucked out of the room. Maybe I’m misreading it….

We went from 1936 to 1991.

[MossMan]

So I see absolutely nothing has been settled yet in the model world. Means more fun model and forum riding!!! 
 

Still a good amount of snow in Skykomish. 

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Seems like the “something special is happening this year” air has been sucked out of the room. Maybe I’m misreading it….

Jim hasn't posted yet today, has he?

[Slushy Inch]

High of 30 in Seattle on Tuesday

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We went from 1936 to 1991.

Jesse!!! That was three decades ago!!!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Jim hasn't posted yet today, has he?

He doesn’t post from his flip phone while at work. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Jim hasn't posted yet today, has he?

He is actually working... unlike the rest of us.

[Darrington Troll]

Fairly sure I will score with this event 

[RCola]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Always have low expectations around here in December. Keep in mind we average more snowfall here in March than in December.

Six days ago, guidance was projecting a large snowstorm for today. Ended up being 1hr of sleet then 2” of 35°F rain.

Still it’s the best pattern we’ve seen in December since 2009 and 2010, so this could be it. Then again, 2010 still managed to fail, so.  

Yep, it was annoying living there post 2009-2010. My winter expectations were completely skewed. I'd consider it a massive win to have a Christmas where the temperature at DCA is below 60F. This year they might just do that. 

The good news is that both the GFS and Euro ensembles are showing the storm at sea to be the most likely worst-case scenario, as opposed to another app runner or cutter.  Fingers crossed.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

He is actually working... unlike the rest of us.

I was checking the 12z Euro while on a call this morning. Almost brought up the eastward shift but thought better of it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He is actually working... unlike the rest of us.

I am working right now, in a ZOOM meeting from Oklahoma.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Merry Christmas Tim!

Hard to believe a system could punch through a fairly strong ridge and still pack a decent punch like that.  Maybe it will be the "sacrificial lamb" storm that helps to beat down the ridge. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If it's going to be warm might as well get a lot of rain, but no. Outside of that AR for Christmas that goes north. On the bright side I guess it won't melt the snow pack. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

seriously, buffalo is already scoring the snow lottery this year. when is it our turn in december?

It’s almost as if Buffalo has a higher average yearly snowfall than the lowland Northwest.

[Jbolin]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He is actually working... unlike the rest of us.

Screw you, we have jobs. Don't get mad b/c our bosses let us model ride at inopportune times throughout the day. 

BTW, your package should arrive sometime around NYE.

[Terreboner]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He is actually working... unlike the rest of us.

I went and fixed my 3 furnaces this morning.  With all the power outages and surges on Sunday, this week I have replaced 8 circuit boards, 4 thermostats, and numerous nuisance blown fuse calls.  Easy money though.  A reminder to anyone in an area prone to this, get a whole house surge protector put on your electrical panel, and install a point-of-use one to each of your critical appliances.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Hard to believe a system could punch through a fairly strong ridge and still pack a decent punch like that.  Maybe it will be the "sacrificial lamb" storm that helps to beat down the ridge. 

Ridge is pretty dirty by then.

[Terreboner]

Made it to 24 here today, now 22.  Fog is creeping in from the north.

[Mid Valley Duck]

22 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Fantastic explanation of the features influencing this next week of weather. 

Yep! 33 seconds in is the feature I was breaking down with the models. How strong that feature is influences the ridge and makes us or breaks us.

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He is actually working... unlike the rest of us.

Speaking of work. I’m freaking furious! Ran into an issue with connecting to the domain and somehow after spending 10 hours on the phone yesterday, the tech-link guy ensured me that my files won’t be wiped during the process since it’s on One-Drive. Guess what?! All my files were wiped and doesn’t appeared to be non-recoverable.

 

end rant. 

[RCola]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s almost as if Buffalo has a higher average yearly snowfall than the lowland Northwest.

And lowland Northeast. 

[Cold Snap]

The sun angles this time of year feel so weird even at like 1pm It feels kind of like sunset and this sun angle is so low for it not even being 3pm yet.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I went and fixed my 3 furnaces this morning.  With all the power outages and surges on Sunday, this week I have replaced 8 circuit boards, 4 thermostats, and numerous nuisance blown fuse calls.  Easy money though.  A reminder to anyone in an area prone to this, get a whole house surge protector put on your electrical panel, and install a point-of-use one to each of your critical appliances.

[Gradient Keeper]

Long range 18z looks M O I S T

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Screw you, we have jobs. Don't get mad b/c pur bosses let us model ride at inopportune times throughout the day. 

BTW, your package should arrive sometime around NYE.

Yeah... I know the drill.   I have been working all day too.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Long range 18z looks M O I S T

Holy jet extension... rain lovers rejoice! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Long range 18z looks M O I S T

January 2006 REDUX

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Long range 18z looks M O I S T

Be nice if we could keep the snow levels in the 2-3000 range.

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks about right for the quality of electricians over here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy mother of god.

[Snownerd3000]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So I see absolutely nothing has been settled yet in the model world. Means more fun model and forum riding!!! 
 

Still a good amount of snow in Skykomish. 

Fun 

[HuskyMaestro]

27 minutes ago, RCola said:

GFS showing a classic beat down for the East Coast from Richmond to Boston Christmas Eve Eve. If we can't get something good, I'm glad they are. They are due, especially Richmond to Philly. Will be in the area around that time, so if we do get something, I'll post pictures.

Nah screw them. It already sucks that nature has an integral East Coast bias, and I’m not talking about just snow. Even their cold rain/wind events are full of hype because they’re nor’easters. We don’t get any of that, so it stings even more to have our major snow chances get eviscerated and then to have a torch blown on us by Christmas. But it is what it is, it’s the PNW. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Buckle up, this is the most exciting pattern in six weeks.