PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Slushy Inch]

And that's as optimistic as I can be about this! I'm happy to get any snow in this snow starved climate! Lets blow a hole in the Cascades!

[Terreboner]

3 hours ago, Timmy said:

Yup

you can see my house here.

Gotcha, I remember when your elevation said close to 1500'.  You were out above North Plains from what I remember.

[Slushy Inch]

Euro weeklies come out today, right? 

[Prairiedog]

33 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The Euro went from showing -21c 850mb temps and 40 inches of snow in SEA to this garbage. Pretty nasty. 

Fair to say the GFS crushed the king this round even though all the models have been far from perfect. The Euro behaved more like the 18z GFS than what we've come to expect from it. Pretty disappointing. 

I've seen this happen way more than once where the EURO showed a lot of cold and snow and the GFS being the contrarian.  The GFS won the day on those occasions.  A few years ago (I forget the year), Portland looked to get clobbered.  The GFS said otherwise.  I remember Rod Hill adamant while sticking with the GFS that we'd see rain rather than snow.  He caught a lot of crap but was right.  Washington did well if I remember right, but for us the GFS held it's ground.  Huge bust for us that were riding the EURO.  I wish I kept track of those times and see just how often the GFS won out when specifically the EURO was off the rails with near epic cold and snow.

Rod and Mark both sniffed this one out too. Didn't see what Zafino had to say.   Koin 6 still hanging onto their cold bias.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The 114 degree day i had is all the proof i need that something has changed. Still makes me sick to even think of that day.

I’ve never hated a single weather event in my life more.

[Blizzard777]

Souls around the PNW 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I've seen this happen way more than once where the EURO showed a lot of cold and snow and the GFS being the contrarian.  The GFS won the day on those occasions.  A few years ago (I forget the year), Portland looked to get clobbered.  The GFS said otherwise.  I remember Rod Hill adamant while sticking with the GFS that we'd see rain rather than snow.  He caught a lot of crap but was right.  Washington did well if I remember right, but for us the GFS held it's ground.  Huge bust for us that were riding the EURO.  I wish I kept track of those times and see just how often the GFS won out when specifically the EURO was off the rails with near epic cold and snow.

Rod and Mark both sniffed this one out too. Didn't see what Zafino had to say.   Koin 6 still hanging onto their cold bias.

 

I think it was 2019

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve never hated a single weather event in my life more.

Same here man. I felt bad for nature. 

[Deweydog]

Looks like the acceptance/long term climate implication freak out phase has set in. Again we’re running a bit ahead of modeling. About 12 hours. Not sure how it will affect January…

[Slushy Inch]

EPS still colder and snowier than GEFS.

[Terreboner]

One thing nobody has been talking about is potential flooding if this supposed warm air mass brings with it some decent precip.  There is a LOT of snow above 2000' ASL in Oregon and Washington.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

One thing nobody has been talking about is potential flooding if this supposed warm air mass brings with it some decent precip.  There is a LOT of snow above 2000' ASL in Oregon and Washington.

It's been talked about a little

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Warming climate but somehow arctic air still makes it to Florida.   

Yes the climate is warming.   But I think that is just an easy answer.   This was a very volatile situation for the models to handle and the same thing could have happened 100 years ago with this pattern.    

I better warn my folks in SC

[Timmy]

17 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Gotcha, I remember when your elevation said close to 1500'.  You were out above North Plains from what I remember.

Yeah. It was a north plains address, closer to scappoose though, In mult county, right on the edge of Washington ans Columbia counties and about 1-2 miles from the Doppler ball.

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

One thing nobody has been talking about is potential flooding if this supposed warm air mass brings with it some decent precip.  There is a LOT of snow above 2000' ASL in Oregon and Washington.

This is actually a big deal, and even I overlooked this.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like the acceptance/long term climate implication freak out phase has set in. Again we’re running a bit ahead of modeling. About 12 hours. Not sure how it will affect January…

Who’s freaking out or saying anything irrational about long term climate implications. The fact that you feel the need to frame things this way is a big reason why we have never quite gotten along. It’s been three decades and counting. It’s a real thing and I find it interesting, if not cathartic, to discuss it. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Perhaps the best thing is, my dream of 50˚F rain for Christmas looks to be coming true.

[Phishy Wx]

dang I was going a hire a service to do snow removal while we're on the east coast for xmas/NYE week.  might just cancel and save the $$

[Slushy Inch]

Still handful of members that stay cold into Friday.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Still handful of members that stay cold into Friday.

Stage 3: bargaining.

[Phishy Wx]

feels like (at least over here) Cold > Snow > warm up> AR > torch > pattern reload > fun and games in mid/late Jan?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

OK, I will stop being such a wise*ss. For now.

Frankly, I would enjoy a white Christmas two-fer as much as anyone here. But, it’s increasingly looking as if it’s probably not going to happen. Not much one can do about it but have fun anyways.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Stage 3: bargaining.

Did you see how much models changed for Sunday, for the better? And you think they are locked in place 4 days after that? 

[RentonHill]

Wx models only has 5 days averages so not a very clear pattern but end signal seems abrupt and noteworthy

[Phishy Wx]

don't think we've seen the end of the surprises with this one.  so much noise and just a dynamically odd scenario 

[WeatherGeek2022]

my intuition nags at me that it's over until february(again) for another potential rogue surprise.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wx models only has 5 days averages so not a very clear pattern but end signal seems abrupt and noteworthy

That's definitely a modeling glitch

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Did you see how much models changed for Sunday, for the better? And you think they are locked in place 4 days after that? 

We shutdown the Pacific for about a month now.. it could come back with a vengeance. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wx models only has 5 days averages so not a very clear pattern but end signal seems abrupt and noteworthy

Weeklies not yet out on Weatherbell

[Perturbed Member]

6 hours ago, Timmy said:

@Perturbed Member yeah I used to be on skyline blvd at about 1500’ great for snow and the gorge basically was pointed directly at me so we did really well in outflow situations as well. The problem is most of it is multnomah county and taxes are insane.  And with the increase in the market most stuff is probably pushing 750k - 1 mil Minimum, if you can find something for sale. There isn’t a ton of real estate but there are some good spots in the scappoose-st Helen’s area with elevation. 

Yeah Multnomah county has horrific property taxes. I won't even bother looking at anything in that county. Pretty much considering Washington County or Clark County at this point. 

1k+ feet in east coast range or Clark county should be a massive upgrade and should be able to produce some snow with otherwise marginal/unremarkable conditions I think. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wx models only has 5 days averages so not a very clear pattern but end signal seems abrupt and noteworthy

Yeah, that's a glitch, no way entire continent has negative 850 hpa anomalies.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Who’s freaking out or saying anything irrational about long term climate implications. The fact that you feel the need to frame things this way is a big reason why we have never quite gotten along. It’s been three decades and counting. It’s a real thing and I find it interesting, if not cathartic, to discuss it. 

Do you honestly think that climate change tweaked the large scale players in this pattern? I’m sure there are plenty of examples throughout our climate history of us having this particular type of bite at the apple and it slide by the wayside. Until recently, we’d rarely be the wiser. Only because of technology have we became so self aware of these close calls. Yes, certain high water marks for cold have become more infrequent and our climate is slowly warming, but these lament sessions over a large scale miss are pretty silly. It’d be one thing if we were staring down a full-on 1990 facsimile yet the metro still couldn’t score a high below 25 degrees. That does not appear to the case.

Funny thing about 1990 is the fact that a third bite at the apple was being pretty heavily advertised, at least briefly, for just after New Year’s, but the pattern ended up evolving in a manner very similar to what appears to be on tap.

 

[Dave]

EUG failed terribly with cold temps last night as low clouds/fog formed. Oh well. 

I'm preparing the grill to serve up some BSF 50 burgers. Who's hungry?

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS still wants to give PDX sleet/ice storm especially east of I-205. The EPS says you will get cold rain, then warm rain, and you will like it. I think King Euro even threw in a middle finger. What a royal bastard. Anyhow my concern is shifting to flooding and losing our snowpack. I hope in a few days models revert away from this. A more classic westerly or west-northwesterly flow with mountain snow at times would be preferred over that. I would also be okay with going back into a blocking pattern by Christmas either over Alaska, or over us for major fake cold/east winds. Anyhow.

 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wx models only has 5 days averages so not a very clear pattern but end signal seems abrupt and noteworthy

Nuclear war?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow those euro weeklies look to serve us a blowtorch through January. I guess it was highly unlikely we wouldn’t pay for November. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow! 

Team Pineapple: down but not out!

[MWG]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow! 

Just lovely! 

[Deweydog]

If the weeklies are to be believed at least we’ll have the fake cold comfort of knowing that RAT BASTARD Judah isn’t scoring either.