Niko Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 348 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-212115- /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0003.221223T0300Z-221225T0300Z/ Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee- Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne- Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 348 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph possible. Potential exists for snowfall totals in excess of 6 inches for some areas. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow may significantly reduce visibilities to near zero yielding whiteout conditions. Drifting snow could hamper snow removal operations. The hazardous conditions may impact the morning and evening commutes Friday while posing great risk to holiday weekend travel. Strong winds may bring down tree branches and cause scattered to widespread power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid changeover from rain to snow is expected late Thursday evening into Friday morning. Wind chill values drop some 5 to 15 degrees below zero at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 DISCUSSION... ...High Impact Winter Storm Thursday Night through Saturday Night... Key Messages: -A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect highlighting the potential for blizzard conditions. -Very strong winds develop Friday after the cold air surges in generating a period of 50 mph gusts (or greater) Friday afternoon through early Friday night which may result in scattered to widespread power outages. -A rapid changeover from rain to snow is likely between Thursday night and Friday morning leading to accumulating snowfall into Saturday. -Travel will become difficult or impossible ahead of the holiday weekend, especially midday Friday through Saturday morning due to blowing and drifting snow as whiteout conditions remain possible. -Wind chill values drop some 5-15 degrees below zero Friday and Saturday before wind speeds decrease in the wake of the system resulting in potential delays for power restoration. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 While we have been in meteorological winter for 21 days now today is the first day of Calendar winter that starts at 4:48 PM today. Now as to our potential major snowstorm there are now hints that the SL may track a little further east and that would put the east side of the state in the heaver snow fall totals so we shall see. At this time, it still looks like we will have a major storm bad but maybe not as bad as what looked like yesterday. Now maybe a snow total of maybe 8 to 12” There also looks to be a shorter period of rain and or mix at the start. We shall see how things look later today and even more so tomorrow morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Niko said: DISCUSSION... ...High Impact Winter Storm Thursday Night through Saturday Night... Key Messages: -A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect highlighting the potential for blizzard conditions. -Very strong winds develop Friday after the cold air surges in generating a period of 50 mph gusts (or greater) Friday afternoon through early Friday night which may result in scattered to widespread power outages. -A rapid changeover from rain to snow is likely between Thursday night and Friday morning leading to accumulating snowfall into Saturday. -Travel will become difficult or impossible ahead of the holiday weekend, especially midday Friday through Saturday morning due to blowing and drifting snow as whiteout conditions remain possible. -Wind chill values drop some 5-15 degrees below zero Friday and Saturday before wind speeds decrease in the wake of the system resulting in potential delays for power restoration. You, Jaster, Stach and the rest of the Michigan crew are going to get rocked. Blizzard Watch by this afternoon I would think? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 EAX morning write up: - A Winter Storm Warning is in effect starting tonight for several inches of snow and strong winds resulting in hazardous winter weather conditions. - Very cold temperatures will move in late tonight with temperatures dropping through the day Thursday. Dangerous wind chills will develop Thursday morning and continue through Saturday morning. Discussion: The primary focus of this forecast period will be the incoming winter storm arriving tonight and continuing through the day Thursday. This system can be seen this morning on water vapor imagery as the initial wave starts to drop into the northern Rockies. Models have all been very consistent in recent runs with the trough dropping into the Plains Thursday then pivoting and taking on a more negative tilt as it starts to mature and lift into the Great Lakes region. An Arctic airmass will rush in behind this system, resulting in the coldest temperatures of the year. In addition, a very steep pressure gradient will result in strong winds gusting up to 45 mph behind the front. Given the very cold temperatures and strong winds, dangerous wind chills will develop Thursday morning and continue through Saturday morning. As such, a Wind Chill Warning remains in effect for the entire forecast area starting Thursday morning across far northeast Kansas and northern Missouri, and a bit later in the day for points further south as cold air surges southward. This system will also bring several inches of snow for much of the area. Several considerations have been taken into account with the current forecast snowfall amounts. Given that this system will move through relatively quickly...it will limit the time we have for snow to fall and accumulate. In addition, the cold temperatures will result in more of a "fluffy" type of snow which usually result in good snowfall amounts; however, the strong winds with this system will allow for good compaction with plenty of blowing and drifting of snow. Due to this, have kept the more conservative snowfall amounts going with most locations still in the 2 to 4 inch range. Slight changes to the track and pivot of the trough has shifted some of the higher snowfall totals a touch to the east. While we aren`t expecting high snowfall totals with this event, the combination of several inches of snow with strong winds creating reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions due to blowing and drifting of snow...felt that a Winter Storm Warning was warranted. Light snow may develop across northwest Missouri late this afternoon and evening as a slight disturbance moves through ahead of the main trough. More widespread snowfall will move into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri late tonight and spread southward through the morning, likely impacting the morning commute. The heaviest snowfall will occur late Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours with snow quickly ending from west to east late Thursday afternoon and evening. With temperatures remaining cold through the weekend, snow will stick around through Christmas Day. Taking a look ahead to late weekend into early next week... Another trough looks to dive down across the Plains late Christmas Day, giving us a another potential shot of light snowfall overnight Sunday into Monday. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 6z GFS 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, Clinton said: You, Jaster, Stach and the rest of the Michigan crew are going to get rocked. Blizzard Watch by this afternoon I would think? You bet..it looks like it right and you are correct, I would not be surprised if "Blizzard Watches or Warnings" are posted by the PM Discussion. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: Been thinking a lot about this setup. For Chicago metro, I feel like where/how quickly the surface low really starts to explode is going to be a big factor. If this process happens say about 6 hours sooner (and maybe only a few hours for the Indiana counties in LOT), then there could be substantially more precip pulled back westward toward the city. After spending a good amount of time looking at the data and the potential setup, specifically the LOT region, I'm seeing some members picking up on the SLP energy intensifying a tad earlier in the S MW and pulling more moisture up N into the region. Pretty similar, but not exactly, to what transpired with the last Blizzard that hit the Upper MW. This is a much different character of a storm and the dynamics are still in play. Nevertheless, I do anticipate some interesting model runs for your area, but the heaviest snowfall appears to be target the LES belts and farther East into SE MI. If the 0z GFS is right about stalling a piece over SW MI, then I can see an additional wave rotating around the backside and maybe reach my area and up north into MKE. These finer details will be seen in the CAM's later tonight/tomorrow. Anyway, the 0z EPS came in even drier....at this point, 3-5" at ORD would be welcomed in my book. If there is any chance of a Christmas Miracle to receive more than 6", then kuddo's to the 0z GFS bc it would be a huge coupe but that's saying a lot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 NWS dropped our local forecast to 1-3” inches of snow… if that verifies, what a disappointment (again). For whatever reason they kept the Winter Storm Warning… even with the low amounts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 While not pure lake effect for part 1 of this, not overly excited that most of this is lake effect. in 2 yrs haven't had a forecasted lake effect event pan out. They used to happen all the time! We shall see. On the border of 8-12 and 6-8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, Clinton said: You, Jaster, Stach and the rest of the Michigan crew are going to get rocked. Blizzard Watch by this afternoon I would think? They do not do blizzard watches. It will be upgraded to whatever warning they deem necessary though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 My only hope is what Jim Flowers keeps talking about. A band from Omaha through Central/South Central Nebraska has to verify. If it does, some in that zone may get 4-5". May only be a county or two wide. Either sides of the band may struggle to get an inch. Canadian and RGEM have been on this for awhile, and that is what Jim keeps mentioning. Some of the shorter term models have the band, but it moves on the next run. May get a nice surprise this evening or another disappointment and a completed dud. We'll see. One positive, we have a very fluffy light snow ongoing this morning at 7 degrees. It is only about 1/8" but it's something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Stacsh said: They do not do blizzard watches. It will be upgraded to whatever warning they deem necessary though. That is correct the NWS dose not have a blizzard watch. To be a Blizzard What Is a Blizzard? The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa CO, MI Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, westMJim said: That is correct the NWS dose not have a blizzard watch. To be a Blizzard What Is a Blizzard? The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours Was hoping for a huge amount of snow, but looking at the heavy rain and warmth for next week....kind of hope we get less as it is going to be an ugly, foggy mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, westMJim said: That is correct the NWS dose not have a blizzard watch. To be a Blizzard What Is a Blizzard? The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours My understanding and pretty confident that the amount of snow has absolutely no effect in warnings. Only 35mph winds with vis less than or equal to 1/4 mile for 3 consecutive hours. That's what certifies a blizzard 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 6z RGEM holding strong and actually gives a bump in accumulations for KC and most of Iowa vs 0z. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, gosaints said: Haha has Rochester at like 15 inches. It should start to walk that back at 9z as the spread is huge and there are some giant numbers at the top end Your probably still correct-- however KDSM has now gone up to a mean of just under 10"--- and the lowest member factored in the "mean" -- out of 25+-- is about what the NWS is forecasting here. No Clue what this means (SREF probably crap) but just a data point . Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said: My understanding and pretty confident that the amount of snow has absolutely no effect in warnings. Only 35mph winds with vis less than or equal to 1/4 mile for 3 consecutive hours. That's what certifies a blizzard the poster did say "blowing snow" also to be fair... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 31 minutes ago, Tom said: After spending a good amount of time looking at the data and the potential setup, specifically the LOT region, I'm seeing some members picking up on the SLP energy intensifying a tad earlier in the S MW and pulling more moisture up N into the region. Pretty similar, but not exactly, to what transpired with the last Blizzard that hit the Upper MW. This is a much different character of a storm and the dynamics are still in play. Nevertheless, I do anticipate some interesting model runs for your area, but the heaviest snowfall appears to be target the LES belts and farther East into SE MI. If the 0z GFS is right about stalling a piece over SW MI, then I can see an additional wave rotating around the backside and maybe reach my area and up north into MKE. These finer details will be seen in the CAM's later tonight/tomorrow. Anyway, the 0z EPS came in even drier....at this point, 3-5" at ORD would be welcomed in my book. If there is any chance of a Christmas Miracle to receive more than 6", then kuddo's to the 0z GFS bc it would be a huge coupe but that's saying a lot. Big differences between the operation GFS and Euro for Chicago. Going to make for a tough forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 GRR notices a shift east right now. East side of Michigan looking more favorable for blizzard now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Big differences between the operation GFS and Euro for Chicago. Going to make for a tough forecast. Agree! This is what makes this hobby fun when your centered in the action of tracking a massive storm and also to see what model wins in the end. I'm just thrilled to see that our chances of a white Christmas look in tact and the FEEL of REAL Winter conditions will prevail through the Holiday weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 A slight bump for some on the GFS Mean vs 0z. 10:1 maps 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: A slight bump for some on the GFS Mean vs 0z. 10:1 maps I would think that if we see any adjustments, it will happen in today's 12z suite, as all the players that are on the table will be in the data for the models to digest. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Another thing to add is the fact that the ground is practically frozen here as temps the past few days have been sub freezing (except yesterdays 33f) and barely any sunshine to warm the ground up. It is currently a very cold 12F and some high cirrus clouds. Looking out my window, it looks and feels like a big storm is coming. I'm going to head out for a walk and go through my morning routing. I'm both anxious and excited to the model data today and gear up for a fun 48 hours. Oh, and I have to finish up raking some leaves in MBY and some final winterizing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Something else to watch today for the plains is how quickly the models swing the energy through. The Euro is the fastest and driest, the Canadian the slowest and wettest, and the GFS is in the middle. I would love to see the models work towards the Canadian or at least the GFS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 12Z HRW FV3 has the band over my area. NAM a little farther south. This is what I will nervously watch all day to see where it develops. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 If the NAM is right, there’s literally only a 3-6 hr window of light snow here lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Trend is definitely more progressive today. Still will be significant here. But certainly not as bad as it was yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, winterfreak said: If the NAM is right, there’s literally only a 3-6 hr window of light snow here lol. The NAM still sucks for KC but it did almost double my totals vs 6z so maybe its moving towards the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: The NAM still sucks for KC but it did almost double my totals vs 6z so maybe its moving towards the GFS. There are those bands again that the Canadian and RGEM keep putting out. Looks like one in my vicinity and one in your area. We are either going to be happy or sad depending on their position. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: There are those bands again that the Canadian and RGEM keep putting out. Looks like one in my vicinity and one in your area. We are either going to be happy or sad depending on its position. Almost thunderstorm like. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: You, Jaster, Stach and the rest of the Michigan crew are going to get rocked. Blizzard Watch by this afternoon I would think? They discontinued the use of Bliz Watches. Always dreamed of sitting under one (which Chicago had for several days ahead of GHD-1), but that dream sailed. Would surely have been my best shot, and in Detroit of all places. After GHD-1 there were perhaps one or two other small ones out west in the Dakotas before they retired that headline. I'm sure GRR pushed for it, like eliminating the use of LES warnings for their CWA. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, jaster220 said: They discontinued the use of Bliz Watches. Always dreamed of sitting under one (which Chicago had for several days ahead of GHD-1), but that dream sailed. Would surely have been my best shot, and in Detroit of all places. After GHD-1 there were perhaps one or two other small ones out west in the Dakotas before they retired that headline. I'm sure GRR pushed for it, like eliminating the use of LES warnings for their CWA. GRR mention this going more east with heavier snows east of here, but the model runs have upped my totals. Very confusing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 09z SREF was the best SREF run for me lately and doubled the snow mean to 4.49". Maybe it's collectively sticking me under one of the hit or miss bands. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 My day asked me my prediction for this on Monday afternoon, and I told him I'd guess 3-6" will be about where it ends up. Man I'm good!! But in all seriousness, looking forward to a nice snowfall! Not the wind and cold as much. As if my dog didn't hate going outside enough... I'm just glad we're actually going to have a white Christmas! And like a legit one - not just some piles on snow here or there. I'm sure it's happened more recently than I would think, but it sure feels like we don't get those too often anymore. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Not much is showing up on radar, however we are picking up some light snow (pixie dust) already in Omaha... so maybe a good early sign here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Snowing and -8 here just north of Minneapolis. Let the fun begin! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: My day asked me my prediction for this on Monday afternoon, and I told him I'd guess 3-6" will be about where it ends up. Man I'm good!! But in all seriousness, looking forward to a nice snowfall! Not the wind and cold as much. As if my dog didn't hate going outside enough... I'm just glad we're actually going to have a white Christmas! And like a legit one - not just some piles on snow here or there. I'm sure it's happened more recently than I would think, but it sure feels like we don't get those too often anymore. Agree 100% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Here comes the RGEM. Let's see where the bands set up. I'll also be closely watching the short term models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 12Z RGEM. The bands are still there. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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