CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Streets getting slick. Going to be a rough couple days around here. Glad we’re home and not going anywhere. My wife also teaches so we are off for Christmas break. My son is a junior and they are on the activity moratorium starting Friday, no practices or meetings through December 27th. Our school just said no activities tomorrow due to weather. My daughter is a senior at UNK in Kearney and was finished with her 1st semester last week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 27 minutes ago, Tom said: ORD SREF's up to 10" mean...as @Clintonposted, looks good to me but we'll see if its onto something or not... Finally getting a clue as to the dynamics in play with this anomalous system 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, westMJim said: Well we now have the much anticipated Blizzard warning so now everyone has officially been "warned" I stopped at Meijer to pick up a couple of things for Christmas. In looking at how busy Meijer was I would think they would like a Blizzard warning every other week. The grocery section was very busy the merchandise area not so much. And boy the shelves are very bare. Looking at some peoples carts one would think that they plan on being snowed in for a month. I have more than enough food for more than two weeks. The longest I have ever been "snowed" in was for 5 days and that was in the 1967 storm. In 1978 I lived in a small town and they had the streets plowed on the night the snow stopped and we could drive around the whole town but just could not leave the village. So you were snowed-in, on a slightly longer leash LOL 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 32 minutes ago, Tom said: ORD SREF's up to 10" mean...as @Clintonposted, looks good to me but we'll see if its onto something or not... I wouldn't trust those. Most member are clustered in the two to five range. A few crazy drunk members skew the mean. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 This is turning into a Lake Effect blizzard for here. Looks like we miss out on the trowal snows. Won't be too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 DVN talks about snow ratios tonight. If we can squeeze out some decent qpf tonight, this is where the bulk of the accumulations will likely occur. For the evening and overnight period, forecast soundings show moderate omega intersecting a deep dendritic layer which should yield a powdery snow with SLRs between 14-18:1. This will also line up with a period of 850mb frontogenesis crossing through the area. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 18z GFS a little heavier for mby. Again showing some banding across Missouri and Eastern Kansas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 DVN just upped my point and click to 4-8 (was 3-5) tonight/tomorrow. let's GO! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, tStacsh said: This is turning into a Lake Effect blizzard for here. Looks like we miss out on the trowal snows. Won't be too bad. You're all about LES - perfect. Share some of the system snow with me instead of taking the whole enchilada. Your loss might just be my gain (hoping so anyways). Less going down the sewer drains as RN is normally best. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS a little heavier for mby. Again showing some banding across Missouri and Eastern Kansas. Drunk GFS Kuchie giving me over a foot - if only, lol. Thought we were using SLR maps so as not to portray "fake snow". Did I miss some change in plan? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, BMT said: DVN just upped my point and click to 4-8 (was 3-5) tonight/tomorrow. let's GO! That seems really bizarre and doesn't line up with their own warnings or snow maps. I don't know why they are so inconsistent with what they show. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 My sister lives in Fort Dodge. Said they have 2 inches already and blowing pretty good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Euro a tad north with the SLP this evening, but a tick stronger. Otherwise very good consensus between them: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, westMJim said: Well we now have the much anticipated Blizzard warning so now everyone has officially been "warned" I stopped at Meijer to pick up a couple of things for Christmas. In looking at how busy Meijer was I would think they would like a Blizzard warning every other week. The grocery section was very busy the merchandise area not so much. And boy the shelves are very bare. Looking at some peoples carts one would think that they plan on being snowed in for a month. I have more than enough food for more than two weeks. The longest I have ever been "snowed" in was for 5 days and that was in the 1967 storm. In 1978 I lived in a small town and they had the streets plowed on the night the snow stopped and we could drive around the whole town but just could not leave the village. I am very surprised you were plowed out the night the snow stopped. As I said before, you could not see our mailbox as it was a rural box on a post, approximately 4 foot off the ground. It was approximately 1 week after the storm ended that we were plowed out. A road grader with a V blade opened the road. The operator would gun it, hit the snow, move a few feet, back up, gun it and repeat. A Payloader came the next day or two and widened the road as it was only about 8-10 feet wide and snow piled up on both sides at least 10 foot high in places. I wish I had a cell phone back then and had more pics... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Drunk GFS Kuchie giving me over a foot - if only, lol. Thought we were using SLR maps so as not to portray "fake snow". Did I miss some change in plan? Even at 10:1 your looking at almost a foot of snow. It's time for you to accept the fact that your going to get a big snow! lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Even at 10:1 your looking at almost a foot of snow. It's time for you to accept the fact that your going to get a big snow! lol GFS lol. I'd be surprised if Detroit ends up with more snow than West Michigan. Muskegon/Grand Rapids. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 @h36 GFS is now the slightly stronger global, but still pretty close to the Euro 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: Even at 10:1 your looking at almost a foot of snow. It's time for you to accept the fact that your going to get a big snow! lol Considering that's the same model that had me sitting on the side lines a couple evenings back, not sure can trust it, lol. Might keep swinging right on past me again. This could be a very rare storm for Detroit Metro. This ain't Traverse City or Gaylord 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, jaster220 said: Considering that's the same model that had me sitting on the side lines a couple evenings back, not sure can trust it, lol. Might keep swinging right on past me again. This could be a very rare storm for Detroit Metro. This ain't Traverse City or Gaylord The more east it goes, the better you will do though. This thing will surprise somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, tStacsh said: GFS lol. I'd be surprised if Detroit ends up with more snow than West Michigan. Muskegon/Grand Rapids. Jaster will never let you hear the end of it if they do lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 The band of snow over by Des Moines looks pretty decent, if it can expand a little as it heads east, the areas that get hit by the best bands there will do well with this storm in Iowa. I could see 5" totals coming out of that band before the frontal snows hit in the morning. Just pray it sets up far enough south to give me 2-3". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Snow has started in Des Moines; a few hours early. Already about 3/4" of an inch in about an hour. Not bad start to it all at all. Keep it coming! Good luck everyone! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, tStacsh said: GFS lol. I'd be surprised if Detroit ends up with more snow than West Michigan. Muskegon/Grand Rapids. No doubt, it's lost wrt the Lake contribution 1 minute ago, tStacsh said: The more east it goes, the better you will do though. This thing will surprise somewhere. Could it be here?? After I had "storm cancelled" about 48 hrs ago (right now I see NOH really gaining a storm that looked to be too far north. Them Peeps gotta be excited. LOL at DTX's current thinking. Look at those snowfall maps you posted and how south counties in DTX's area don't match at all with neighboring office(s). Guess can't blame them the way this corner gets screwed so often, like just last Feb's biggie was a FAIL Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 The HRRR illustrates how tight that southern edge will be in Iowa. As usual Cedar Rapids finds their way inside the heavier bands, but where I live just 15 miles south, I'm on the outside looking in. A 2.5" difference between Iowa City and CR. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Coming down hard up here. Bigtime fatties now. Made a run to Target a bit ago and visibility was already getting low. Wind is still light. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 IWX says this storm will not rival 1978... LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee_CHI Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 I just went grocery shopping with my boyfriend and there are literal lines to just get in the aisles lol. Aren’t we only supposed to get 3-5” of snow?! I legitimately don’t remember this kind of panic in Chicago ever. Am I missing something?! Lol this seems so extra! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Anyone give me a clue as to how lake effect looks up here...been digging out the cottage for the family today and haven't had time to look at anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Impressive returns for DSM right now and central Iowa. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just started snowing, not shown on radar. Wind is ramping up. Front must be close. Let’s go. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Winter storm to evolve into bomb cyclone as it produces a blizzard in Midwest Blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings have been issued across the Midwest ahead of a fierce storm system that is forecast to intensify rapidly and produce howling winds and heavy snow. By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 A spotter in Fort Dodge reported a quick 3 inches. 4 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 HRRR and RAP trending favorably for KC 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 Hi-res model and radar watching time! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 For giggles I took a peak at the temp models around new years. On the plus side, models show darn near 60° on Jan 1 which will hopefully melt off a good share of what is coming. However, temps like that in January usually bring a friend with them to the tune of another big snow event... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: HRRR and RAP trending favorably for KC Let’s get that snow hole to Omaha and complete the collapse 10” to nada. I already have the new snowblower packed up to return to the store! 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 hours ago, westMJim said: Well we now have the much anticipated Blizzard warning so now everyone has officially been "warned" I stopped at Meijer to pick up a couple of things for Christmas. In looking at how busy Meijer was I would think they would like a Blizzard warning every other week. The grocery section was very busy the merchandise area not so much. And boy the shelves are very bare. Looking at some peoples carts one would think that they plan on being snowed in for a month. I have more than enough food for more than two weeks. The longest I have ever been "snowed" in was for 5 days and that was in the 1967 storm. In 1978 I lived in a small town and they had the streets plowed on the night the snow stopped and we could drive around the whole town but just could not leave the village. The stores are mainly busy for Christmas get togethrs, parties and the snow just adds to the cowds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted December 21, 2022 Report Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: No doubt, it's lost wrt the Lake contribution Could it be here?? After I had "storm cancelled" about 48 hrs ago (right now I see NOH really gaining a storm that looked to be too far north. Them Peeps gotta be excited. LOL at DTX's current thinking. Look at those snowfall maps you posted and how south counties in DTX's area don't match at all with neighboring office(s). Guess can't blame them the way this corner gets screwed so often, like just last Feb's biggie was a FAIL Expect 2-4" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 22, 2022 Report Share Posted December 22, 2022 With snow totals trending down. I can’t help but think of “bust”. Even though it will still be terrible Friday. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 22, 2022 Report Share Posted December 22, 2022 The latest RAP 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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